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Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been linked to mass wildlife die-offs and human food poisoning episodes, and climate change has the potential to alter the frequency, magnitude, and geographical extent of such events. Thus, a framework of species distribution models (SDMs), employing MaxEnt modeling, was used to project changes in habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., Alexandrium catenella, A. minutum, and Gymnodinium catenatum), up to 2050 and 2100, across four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; CMIP5). Despite slightly different responses at the regional level, the global habitat suitability has decreased for all the species, leading to an overall contraction in their tropical and sub-tropical ranges, while considerable expansions are projected in higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting poleward distributional shifts. Such trends were exacerbated with increasing RCP severity. Yet, further research is required, with a greater assemblage of environmental predictors and improved occurrence datasets, to gain a more holistic understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on PST-producing species.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/biology11101424","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,29]],"date-time":"2022-09-29T21:03:10Z","timestamp":1664485390000},"page":"1424","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3911-0421","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francisco","family":"Borges","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE\u2014Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET\u2014Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Vanessa","family":"Lopes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE\u2014Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET\u2014Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9612-4280","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ana","family":"Amorim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE\u2014Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET\u2014Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"Departamento de Biologia Vegetal, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6988-253X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Catarina","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE\u2014Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET\u2014Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6083-470X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro","family":"Costa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA, I.P.), 1749-077 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"S2AQUA\u2014Collaborative Laboratory, Association for a Sustainable and Smart Aquaculture, Av. Parque Natural da Ria Formosa s\/n, 8700-194 Olh\u00e3o, Portugal"},{"name":"CCMAR\u2014Centre of Marine Sciences, Campus de Gambelas, University of Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2801-5178","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rui","family":"Rosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MARE\u2014Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre & ARNET\u2014Aquatic Research Network, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"591","DOI":"10.1016\/j.marpolbul.2017.04.027","article-title":"Eutrophication, Harmful Algae and Biodiversity\u2014Challenging Paradigms in a World of Complex Nutrient Changes","volume":"124","author":"Glibert","year":"2017","journal-title":"Mar. 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