{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T13:38:31Z","timestamp":1769607511549,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]],"date-time":"2025-02-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1740528000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001026","name":"National Breast Cancer Foundation (NBCF Australia) Chair in Breast Cancer Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["EC-21-001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EC-21-001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001026","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001026","name":"National Breast Cancer Foundation (NBCF Australia) Chair in Breast Cancer Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1194410"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1194410"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001026","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001026","name":"National Breast Cancer Foundation (NBCF Australia) Chair in Breast Cancer Prevention","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2023\/IIRS0028"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023\/IIRS0028"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001026","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator (Leader)","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["EC-21-001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EC-21-001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator (Leader)","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1194410"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1194410"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator (Leader)","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2023\/IIRS0028"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023\/IIRS0028"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"National Breast Cancer Foundation (NBCF) Investigator Initiated Research Scheme","award":["EC-21-001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EC-21-001"]}]},{"name":"National Breast Cancer Foundation (NBCF) Investigator Initiated Research Scheme","award":["1194410"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1194410"]}]},{"name":"National Breast Cancer Foundation (NBCF) Investigator Initiated Research Scheme","award":["2023\/IIRS0028"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023\/IIRS0028"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Cancers"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Aim: The aim of this study was to determine whether women at risk of having screen-detected (including detected at advanced stage) and interval breast cancer can be accurately identified using conventional risk factors collected by national screening programs. Methods: All 1,026,137 mammography screening examinations for 323,082 women attending the BreastScreen Western Australia program (part of Australia\u2019s national biennial screening program) in July 2007\u2013June 2017 contributed to models for predicting screen-detected breast cancers, screen-detected advanced cancers (\u2265pT2), and interval cancers. Results: In total, 7024 screen-detected (1551 in situ, 5472 invasive, of which 1329 were \u2265pT2) and 1866 interval cancers (76 in situ, 1790 invasive) were diagnosed. In a multivariable model for screen-detected cancers, the ORs for the oldest age groups were 2.56 (CI 2.32\u20132.82) for 60\u201369 years and 3.60 (CI 3.23\u20134.00) for \u226570 years, and the OR for symptoms was 7.44 (CI 6.76\u20138.20). These associations were stronger for screen-detected advanced cancers. First-degree family history and a personal history of breast cancer were also associated with risk. In a multivariable model for interval cancers, the HR for dense breasts was 2.36 (CI 2.14\u20132.61) and the HR for symptoms was 3.27 (CI 2.53\u20134.24); family history and recent hormone replacement therapy use were also associated with risk. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.643 (CI 0.636\u20130.650) for screen-detected cancers, 0.651 (CI 0.638\u20130.664) for screen-detected advanced cancers, and 0.706 (CI 0.690\u20130.722) for interval cancers. Conclusion: Older age and symptoms were the strongest predictors of overall and advanced screen-detected breast cancers. Dense breasts and symptoms were the strongest predictors of interval cancers. All models had moderate discrimination, approximating that for established models.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers17050810","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]],"date-time":"2025-02-26T08:28:31Z","timestamp":1740558511000},"page":"810","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Risk Models to Predict Screen-Detected and Interval Breast Cancers in Population Mammography Screening Participants"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5662-1496","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Naomi","family":"Noguchi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia"}]},{"given":"Armando","family":"Teixeira-Pinto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3801-8180","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael Luke","family":"Marinovich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, University of Sydney (a Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW), Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia"}]},{"given":"Dominique Claire","family":"Louw","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth Jane","family":"Wylie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BreastScreen Western Australia, Perth, WA 6000, Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3641-952X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nehmat","family":"Houssami","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia"},{"name":"The Daffodil Centre, University of Sydney (a Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW), Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1615","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2015.13183","article-title":"Benefits and Harms of Breast Cancer Screening: A Systematic Review","volume":"314","author":"Myers","year":"2015","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1504","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaoncol.2018.1901","article-title":"Cost-effectiveness and Benefit-to-Harm Ratio of Risk-Stratified Screening for Breast Cancer: A Life-Table Model","volume":"4","author":"Pashayan","year":"2018","journal-title":"JAMA Oncol."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"359","DOI":"10.5694\/mja2.51216","article-title":"Screening outcomes by risk factor and age: Evidence from BreastScreen WA for discussions of risk-stratified population screening","volume":"215","author":"Noguchi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Med. J. Aust."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2024, September 16). BreastScreen Australia Data Dictionary: Version 1.2. Canberra, Available online: https:\/\/www.aihw.gov.au\/reports\/cancer-screening\/breastscreen-australia-data-dictionary-version-1-2\/summary."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"Australian Bureau of Statistics (2024, September 16). Technical Paper. Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), Available online: https:\/\/www.ausstats.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/subscriber.nsf\/0\/756EE3DBEFA869EFCA258259000BA746\/$File\/SEIFA%202016%20Technical%20Paper.pdf."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"D\u2019Orsi, C., Sickles, E., Mendelson, E., and Morris, E.A. (2013). ACR BI-RADS\u00ae Atlas, Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System, American College of Radiology."},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"R Core Team (2021). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Available online: https:\/\/www.R-project.org\/."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Louro, J., Roman, M., Moshina, N., Olstad, C.F., Larsen, M., Sagstad, S., Castells, X., and Hofvind, S. (2023). Personalized breast cancer screening: A risk prediction model based on women attending BreastScreen Norway. Cancers, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers15184517"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"979","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.34968","article-title":"A comparative analysis of risk factor associations with interval and screen-detected breast cancers: A large UK prospective study","volume":"155","author":"Barnes","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int. J. Cancer"},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"Cancer Australia (2024, September 16). 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Cancer Prev."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"868","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2019.5780","article-title":"Medication Use for the Risk Reduction of Primary Breast Cancer in Women: Updated Evidence Report and Systematic Review for the US Preventive Services Task Force","volume":"322","author":"Nelson","year":"2019","journal-title":"JAMA"}],"container-title":["Cancers"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-6694\/17\/5\/810\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T16:43:08Z","timestamp":1760028188000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-6694\/17\/5\/810"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]]},"references-count":17,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,3]]}},"alternative-id":["cancers17050810"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/cancers17050810","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-6694"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-6694","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,26]]}}}