{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,20]],"date-time":"2026-03-20T08:29:47Z","timestamp":1773995387804,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1773792000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004901","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["APQ-00709-21"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APQ-00709-21"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004901","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["305295\/2021-7"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["305295\/2021-7"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004901","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["305711\/2024-5"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["305711\/2024-5"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004901","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["UIDB\/00350\/2025"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/00350\/2025"]}]},{"name":"Associate Laboratory Aquatic Research Network","award":["LA\/P\/0069\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LA\/P\/0069\/2020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Earth"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Climate change significantly affects hydrological responses, yet studies addressing future water availability in the Paraopeba River Basin (PRB), an important tributary of the S\u00e3o Francisco River Basin in Brazil, remain limited, particularly under CMIP6 scenarios and using distributed hydrological modeling approaches. In this context, this study evaluated the hydrological responses of the PRB, under climate change using the MHD-INPE. Future projections were based on an ensemble of seven climate models from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 collection, considering a baseline period (1992\u20132014), three future periods 17(2040\u20132060, 2061\u20132080 and 2081\u20132100) and two socioeconomic scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The model satisfactorily reproduced observed streamflow during the baseline period. Under the SSP585 scenario, the projections indicate stronger alterations in water availability, with a potential intensification of flood and drought events, as reflected by reductions in minimum streamflows (Q90) and increases in maximum streamflows (Q10), particularly in sub-basins 4 and 5, where Q90 reductions approach 30% and Q10 increases reach 11.7%. Additionally, a decrease in Q7,10 values was observed, which enabled the analysis of the Conflict Index (Icg), indicating that water withdrawals currently granted may exceed the limits established by existing legislation in future scenarios (Igc &gt; 1).<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/earth7020052","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T10:11:12Z","timestamp":1773828672000},"page":"52","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrology of a Highly Disturbed Tropical River Basin"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Claudiana Mesquita de","family":"Alvarenga","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Recursos H\u00eddricos, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras 37203-202, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2291-7966","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"L\u00edvia Alves","family":"Alvarenga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Recursos H\u00eddricos, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras 37203-202, Brazil"}]},{"given":"P\u00e2mela Aparecida","family":"Melo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden), Estrada Dr. Altino Bondesan 500, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos 12247-016, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2597-8833","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Javier","family":"Tomasella","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Ci\u00eancia do Sistema Terrestre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Cachoeira Paulista 12630-970, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6394-1217","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"P\u00e2mela Rafanele Fran\u00e7a","family":"Pinto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Recursos H\u00eddricos, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras 37203-202, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6033-5342","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carlos Rog\u00e9rio de","family":"Mello","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Recursos H\u00eddricos, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras 37203-202, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6901-5652","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jorge M. G. P.","family":"Isidoro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Engenharia Civil, Instituto Superior de Engenharia, Universidade do Algarve, CIMA\u2014Centro de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o Marinha e Ambiental\/ARNET\u2014Rede de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o Aqu\u00e1tica, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"(2025, December 27). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability|Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Available online: https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg2\/."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"(2025, December 27). Copernicus: 2024 Is the First Year to Exceed 1.5 \u00b0C above Pre-Industrial Level|Copernicus. 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