{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T10:12:04Z","timestamp":1760177524968,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,15]],"date-time":"2020-06-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1592179200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000780","name":"European Commission","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["609687"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["609687"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000780","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Energies"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper presents a study on dynamic line rating (DLR) forecasting procedure aimed at developing a new methodology able to forecast future ampacity values for rare and extreme events. This is motivated by the belief that to apply DLR network operators must be able to forecast their values and this must be based on conservative approaches able to guarantee the safe operation of the network. The proposed methodology can be summarised as follows: firstly, probabilistic forecasts of conductors\u2019 ampacity are calculated with a non-parametric model, secondly, the lower part of the distribution is replaced with a new distribution calculated with a parametric model. The paper presents also an evaluation of the proposed methodology in network operation, suggesting an application method and highlighting the advantages. The proposed forecasting methodology delivers a high improvement of the lowest quantiles\u2019 reliability, allowing perfect reliability for the 1% quantile and a reduction of roughly 75% in overconfidence for the 0.1% quantile.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/en13123090","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,15]],"date-time":"2020-06-15T12:16:57Z","timestamp":1592223417000},"page":"3090","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Extreme Quantiles Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts and Application on Network Operation"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Romain","family":"Dupin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"MINES ParisTech, PSL University, Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE), CS 10207 rue Claude Daunesse, Cedex, 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France"}]},{"given":"Laura","family":"Cavalcante","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"INESC TEC, Centre for Power and Energy Systems, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3808-0427","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ricardo J.","family":"Bessa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"INESC TEC, Centre for Power and Energy Systems, Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5261-0172","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Georges","family":"Kariniotakis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MINES ParisTech, PSL University, Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE), CS 10207 rue Claude Daunesse, Cedex, 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8440-7128","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrea","family":"Michiorri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MINES ParisTech, PSL University, Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE), CS 10207 rue Claude Daunesse, Cedex, 06904 Sophia Antipolis, France"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,6,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dupin, R., Michiorri, A., and Kariniotakis, E.G. 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