{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]],"date-time":"2026-01-22T12:13:30Z","timestamp":1769084010035,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,19]],"date-time":"2021-03-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1616112000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Forests"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Research Highlights: Modelling species\u2019 distribution and productivity is key to support integrated landscape planning, species\u2019 afforestation, and sustainable forest management. Background and Objectives: Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) forests in Portugal were lately affected by wildfires and measures to overcome this situation are needed. The aims of this study were: (1) to model species\u2019 spatial distribution and productivity using a machine learning (ML) regression approach to produce current species\u2019 distribution and productivity maps; (2) to model the species\u2019 spatial productivity using a stochastic sequential simulation approach to produce the species\u2019 current productivity map; (3) to produce the species\u2019 potential distribution map, by using a ML classification approach to define species\u2019 ecological envelope thresholds; and (4) to identify present and future key factors for the species\u2019 afforestation and management. Materials and Methods: Spatial land cover\/land use data, inventory, and environmental data (climate, topography, and soil) were used in a coupled ML regression and stochastic sequential simulation approaches to model species\u2019 current and potential distributions and productivity. Results: Maritime pine spatial distribution modelling by the ML approach provided 69% fitting efficiency, while species productivity modelling achieved only 43%. The species\u2019 potential area covered 60% of the country\u2019s area, where 78% of the species\u2019 forest inventory plots (1995) were found. The change in the Maritime pine stands\u2019 age structure observed in the last decades is causing the species\u2019 recovery by natural regeneration to be at risk. Conclusions: The maps produced allow for best site identification for species afforestation, wood production regulation support, landscape planning considering species\u2019 diversity, and fire hazard mitigation. These maps were obtained by modelling using environmental covariates, such as climate attributes, so their projection in future climate change scenarios can be performed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/f12030368","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,21]],"date-time":"2021-03-21T22:00:37Z","timestamp":1616364037000},"page":"368","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Modelling Maritime Pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) Spatial Distribution and Productivity in Portugal: Tools for Forest Management"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6906-6660","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cristina","family":"Alegria","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"CERNAS-IPCB\u2014P\u00f3lo de Castelo Branco do Centro de Estudos de Recursos Naturais, Ambiente e Sociedade, Unidade de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Desenvolvimento do Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8859-4365","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nat\u00e1lia","family":"Roque","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"QRural\u2014Qualidade de Vida no Mundo Rural, Unidade de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Desenvolvimento do Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8782-6133","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Teresa","family":"Albuquerque","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"CERNAS-IPCB\u2014P\u00f3lo de Castelo Branco do Centro de Estudos de Recursos Naturais, Ambiente e Sociedade, Unidade de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Desenvolvimento do Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"QRural\u2014Qualidade de Vida no Mundo Rural, Unidade de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Desenvolvimento do Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"ICT\u2014Instituto de Ci\u00eancias da Terra, Universidade de \u00c9vora, 7000-849 \u00c9vora, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7252-8320","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paulo","family":"Fernandez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"MED\u2014Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, Universidade de \u00c9vora, 7006-554 \u00c9vora, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4684-1262","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria Margarida","family":"Ribeiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"CERNAS-IPCB\u2014P\u00f3lo de Castelo Branco do Centro de Estudos de Recursos Naturais, Ambiente e Sociedade, Unidade de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Desenvolvimento do Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"CEF\u2014Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1007\/s13595-020-00941-5","article-title":"Predicting current and future suitable habitat and productivity for Atlantic populations of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) in Spain","volume":"77","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ann. 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