{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,17]],"date-time":"2026-04-17T22:25:44Z","timestamp":1776464744811,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":111,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]],"date-time":"2025-07-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1753401600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UI\/BD\/152853\/2022"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UI\/BD\/152853\/2022"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDB\/00681"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/00681"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UID\/00239"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UID\/00239"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["LA\/P\/0092\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LA\/P\/0092\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDB\/04084\/2025"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04084\/2025"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDB\/50027\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/50027\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CEECIND\/02331\/2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CEECIND\/02331\/2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Forests"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Climate change poses a major threat to forests, impacting the distribution and viability of key species. Quercus pyrenaica Willd., a marcescent oak endemic to the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) and southwestern France and a structural species in submediterranean forests, is particularly susceptible to shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. Aiming to assess its potential loss of suitable area under future climate scenarios, we developed high-resolution spatial distribution models to project the future habitat suitability of Q. pyrenaica under two climate change scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2070 and 2100. Our model, which has an excellent predictive performance (AUC of 0.971 and a TSS of 0.834), indicates a predominantly northward shift in the potential distribution of the species, accompanied by substantial habitat loss in southern and lowland regions. Long-term potential suitable area may shrink to 42% of that currently available. This, combined with the limited natural dispersal capacity of the species, highlights the urgency of targeted management and conservation strategies. These results offer critical insights to inform conservation strategies and forest management under ongoing climate change.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/f16081226","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]],"date-time":"2025-07-25T12:56:43Z","timestamp":1753448203000},"page":"1226","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Climate-Driven Habitat Shifts and Conservation Implications for the Submediterranean Oak Quercus pyrenaica Willd."],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3226-0977","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Isabel","family":"Passos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Centre for Natural Resources, Environment and Society, Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, Polytechnic University, Quinta Sra. de M\u00e9rcules, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Col\u00e9gio de S\u00e3o Jer\u00f3nimo, 3004-530 Coimbra, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4285-8008","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carlos","family":"Vila-Vi\u00e7osa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO (Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources), Campus de Vair\u00e3o, 4485-661 Vair\u00e3o, Portugal"},{"name":"CIBIO (Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)-InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Campus Agr\u00e1rio de Vair\u00e3o, Rua Padre Armando Quintas, University of Porto, 4485-661 Vair\u00e3o, Portugal"},{"name":"MHNC-UP\u2014Museu de Hist\u00f3ria Natural e da Ci\u00eancia da Universidade do Porto\u2013Herb\u00e1rio PO, Universidade do Porto, Pra\u00e7a Gomes Teixeira, 4099-002 Porto, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6615-0218","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jo\u00e3o","family":"Gon\u00e7alves","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO (Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources), Campus de Vair\u00e3o, 4485-661 Vair\u00e3o, Portugal"},{"name":"CIBIO (Research Center in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources)-InBIO (Research Network in Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology), Campus Agr\u00e1rio de Vair\u00e3o, Rua Padre Armando Quintas, University of Porto, 4485-661 Vair\u00e3o, Portugal"},{"name":"proMetheus\u2014Research Unit on Materials, Energy and Environment for Sustainability, Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Viana do Castelo, Escola Superior de Tecnologia e Gest\u00e3o, 4900-347 Viana do Castelo, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0142-4764","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Albano","family":"Figueiredo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, Department of Geography and Tourism, University of Coimbra, Col\u00e9gio de S\u00e3o Jer\u00f3nimo, 3004-530 Coimbra, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4684-1262","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria Margarida","family":"Ribeiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Centre for Natural Resources, Environment and Society, Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, Polytechnic University, Quinta Sra. de M\u00e9rcules, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"School of Agriculture, Polytechnic University of Castelo Branco, Quinta Sra. de M\u00e9rcules, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"CEF, Forest Research Centre, TERRA Associated Laboratory, Superior Institute of Agronomy, Lisbon University, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Tenorio, M., Juaristi, C., and Ollero, H. 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