{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,22]],"date-time":"2026-01-22T01:45:03Z","timestamp":1769046303027,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":86,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,21]],"date-time":"2026-01-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1768953600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["UID\/681\/2025"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UID\/681\/2025"]}]},{"name":"Forest Research Centre","award":["UID\/00239\/2025"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UID\/00239\/2025"]}]},{"name":"Forest Research Centre","award":["UID\/PRR\/00239\/2025"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UID\/PRR\/00239\/2025"]}]},{"name":"Associate Laboratory TERRA","award":["LA\/P\/0092\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LA\/P\/0092\/2020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Forests"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study explores the potential for afforestation in Portugal that could balance wood and non-wood forest production under future climate change scenarios. The Climate Envelope Models (CEM) approach was employed with three main objectives: (1) to model the current distribution of key Portuguese forest species\u2014eucalypts, maritime pine, umbrella pine, chestnut, and cork oak\u2014based on their suitability for wood and non-wood production; (2) to project their potential distribution for the years 2070 and 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP2\u20134.5 (moderate) and SSP5\u20138.5 (high emissions); and (3) to generate integrated species distribution maps identifying both current and future high-suitability zones to support afforestation planning, reflecting climatic compatibility under fixed thresholds. Species\u2019 current CMEs were produced using an additive Boolean model with a set of environmental variables (e.g., temperature-related and precipitation-related, elevation, and soil) specific to each species. Species\u2019 current CEMs were validated using forest inventory data and the official Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) map of Portugal, and a good agreement was obtained (&gt;99%). By the end of the 21st century, marked reductions in species suitability are projected, especially for chestnut (36%\u201344%) and maritime pine (25%\u201335%). Incorporating future suitability projections and preventive silvicultural practices into afforestation planning is therefore essential to ensure climate-resilient and ecologically friendly forest management.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/f17010139","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,21]],"date-time":"2026-01-21T11:11:17Z","timestamp":1768993877000},"page":"139","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Climate-Informed Afforestation Planning in Portugal: Balancing Wood and Non-Wood Production"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8859-4365","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nat\u00e1lia","family":"Roque","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Agriculture, IPCB\u2014Polytechnic University of Castelo Branco, Ap. 119, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"CERNAS-IPCB Research Centre, Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, Quinta da Senhora de M\u00e9rcules, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1845-1259","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alice Maria","family":"Almeida","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Agriculture, IPCB\u2014Polytechnic University of Castelo Branco, Ap. 119, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7252-8320","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paulo","family":"Fernandez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Agriculture, IPCB\u2014Polytechnic University of Castelo Branco, Ap. 119, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"CERNAS-IPCB Research Centre, Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, Quinta da Senhora de M\u00e9rcules, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"MED\u2014Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development & CHANGE\u2013Global Change and Sustainability Institute, University of \u00c9vora, P\u00f3lo da Mitra, Ap. 94, 7006-554 \u00c9vora, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4684-1262","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria Margarida","family":"Ribeiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Agriculture, IPCB\u2014Polytechnic University of Castelo Branco, Ap. 119, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"CERNAS-IPCB Research Centre, Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, Quinta da Senhora de M\u00e9rcules, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6906-6660","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cristina","family":"Alegria","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Agriculture, IPCB\u2014Polytechnic University of Castelo Branco, Ap. 119, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"CERNAS-IPCB Research Centre, Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, Quinta da Senhora de M\u00e9rcules, 6001-909 Castelo Branco, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1576","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.14887","article-title":"Afforestation for Climate Change Mitigation: Potentials, Risks and Trade-offs","volume":"26","author":"Doelman","year":"2019","journal-title":"Glob. 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