{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,18]],"date-time":"2026-01-18T21:40:07Z","timestamp":1768772407125,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":84,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"23","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,27]],"date-time":"2024-11-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1732665600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Foods"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study introduces a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model aimed at evaluating the risk of invasive listeriosis linked to the consumption of ready-to-eat (RTE) smoked and gravad fish. The QRA model, based on published data, simulates the production process from fish harvest through to consumer intake, specifically focusing on smoked brine-injected, smoked dry-salted, and gravad fish. In a reference scenario, model predictions reveal substantial probabilities of lot and pack contamination at the end of processing (38.7% and 8.14% for smoked brined fish, 34.4% and 6.49% for smoked dry-salted fish, and 52.2% and 11.1% for gravad fish), although the concentrations of L. monocytogenes are very low, with virtually no packs exceeding 10 CFU\/g at the point of sale. The risk of listeriosis for an elderly consumer per serving is also quantified. The lot-level mean risk of listeriosis per serving in the elderly population was 9.751 \u00d7 10\u22128 for smoked brined fish, 9.634 \u00d7 10\u22128 for smoked dry-salted fish, and 2.086 \u00d7 10\u22127 for gravad fish. Risk reduction strategies were then analyzed, indicating that the application of protective cultures and maintaining lower cold storage temperatures significantly mitigate listeriosis risk compared to reducing incoming fish lot contamination. The model also addresses the effectiveness of control measures during processing, such as minimizing cross-contamination. The comprehensive QRA model has been made available as a fully documented qraLm R package. This facilitates its adaptation for risk assessment of other RTE seafood, making it a valuable tool for public health officials to evaluate and manage food safety risks more effectively.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/foods13233831","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,28]],"date-time":"2024-11-28T03:21:23Z","timestamp":1732764083000},"page":"3831","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for Listeria monocytogenes in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad Fish"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8462-9775","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ursula","family":"Gonzales-Barron","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o de Montanha (CIMO), Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Bragan\u00e7a, Campus de Santa Apol\u00f3nia, 5300-253 Bragan\u00e7a, Portugal"},{"name":"Laborat\u00f3rio para a Sustentabilidade e Tecnologia em Regi\u00f5es de Montanha, Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Bragan\u00e7a, Campus de Santa Apol\u00f3nia, 5300-253 Bragan\u00e7a, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6107-5212","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"R\u00e9gis","family":"Pouillot","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Independent Researcher, 18 rue Mohamed Al Ghazi, Rabat 10170, Morocco"}]},{"given":"Taran","family":"Skjerdal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Section of Bacteriology\u2014Food and GMO, Postbox Sentrum 750, N-0106 Oslo, Norway"}]},{"given":"Elena","family":"Carrasco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Ciencia y Tecnolog\u00eda de los Alimentos, UIC Zoonosis y Enfermedades Emergentes (ENZOEM), Campus de Excelencia Internacional en Agroalimentaci\u00f3n (CeiA3), Universidad de C\u00f3rdoba, Campus Rabanales, Edificio Darwin-Anexo, E-14071 C\u00f3rdoba, Spain"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6296-5137","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paula","family":"Teixeira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CBQF\u2014Centro de Biotecnologia e Qu\u00edmica Fina\u2014Laborat\u00f3rio Associado, Escola Superior de Biotecnologia, Universidade Cat\u00f3lica Portuguesa, Rua Diogo Botelho 1327, 4169-005 Porto, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2712-0793","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew J.","family":"Stasiewicz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Food Science and Human Nutrition, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 905 S Goodwin Ave., Urbana, IL 61801, USA"}]},{"given":"Akio","family":"Hasegawa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nutrition and Food Safety Department, World Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland"}]},{"given":"Juliana","family":"De Oliveira Mota","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nutrition and Food Safety Department, World Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7867-2937","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Laurent","family":"Guillier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Risk Assessment Department, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety (Anses), 14 rue Pierre et Marie Curie, 94701 Maisons-Alfort, France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3077-7414","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vasco","family":"Cadavez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o de Montanha (CIMO), Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Bragan\u00e7a, Campus de Santa Apol\u00f3nia, 5300-253 Bragan\u00e7a, Portugal"},{"name":"Laborat\u00f3rio para a Sustentabilidade e Tecnologia em Regi\u00f5es de Montanha, Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico de Bragan\u00e7a, Campus de Santa Apol\u00f3nia, 5300-253 Bragan\u00e7a, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Moez","family":"Sanaa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nutrition and Food Safety Department, World Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-4565.2010.00260.x","article-title":"Prevalence and typing of Listeria monocytogenes strains in retail vacuum-packed cold-smoked salmon in the Republic of Ireland","volume":"31","author":"Dass","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. 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