{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,12]],"date-time":"2026-03-12T23:49:53Z","timestamp":1773359393402,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,23]],"date-time":"2022-09-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1663891200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Geomatics"],"abstract":"<jats:p>There are only two species of native vascular plants found on the Antarctic Peninsula and the surrounding islands, Deschampsia Antarctica, and Colobanthus quitensis. Poa annua, a successful invasive species, poses a threat to D. antarctica and C. quitensis. This region may experience extreme changes in biodiversity due to climate change over the next 100 years. This study explores the relationship between vascular vegetation and changing temperature on the Antarctic Peninsula and uses a systems modelling approach to account for three climate change scenarios over a 100-year period. The results of this study indicate that (1) D. antarctica, C. quitensis, and P. annua will likely be impacted by temperature increases, and greater temperature increases will facilitate more rapid species expansion, (2) in all scenarios D. antarctica species occurrences increase to higher values compared to C. quitensis and P. annua, suggesting that D. antarctica populations may be more successful at expanding into newly forming ice-free areas, (3) C. quitensis may be more vulnerable to the spread of P. annua than D. antarctica if less extreme warming occurs, and (4) C. quitensis relative growth rate is capable of reaching higher values than D. antarctica and P. annua, but only under extreme warming conditions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/geomatics2040022","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,25]],"date-time":"2022-09-25T23:13:27Z","timestamp":1664147607000},"page":"390-414","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Modelling the Impact of Temperature under Climate Change Scenarios on Native and Invasive Vascular Vegetation on the Antarctic Peninsula and Surrounding Islands"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"2","author":[{"given":"Elissa","family":"Penfound","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Yeates School of Graduate Studies, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON M5B 2K3, Canada"}]},{"given":"Christopher","family":"Wellen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON M5B 2K3, Canada"}]},{"given":"Eric","family":"Vaz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON M5B 2K3, Canada"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1038\/nature22996","article-title":"Climate changes drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat","volume":"547","author":"Lee","year":"2017","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"899","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaa5727","article-title":"Dynamic thinning of glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula","volume":"348","author":"Wouters","year":"2015","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-018-0179-y","article-title":"Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017","volume":"558","author":"Shepherd","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1095","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1812883116","article-title":"Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979\u20132017","volume":"116","author":"Rignot","year":"2019","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"(2022, August 18). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available online: http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"(2022, September 14). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Available online: https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/understanding-climate\/climate-change-global-temperature-projections."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3389\/fenvs.2019.00102","article-title":"The Antarctic Peninsula under 1.5 \u00b0C global warming scenario","volume":"7","author":"Siegert","year":"2019","journal-title":"Front. Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Torres-Diaz, C., Gallardo-Cerda, J., Lavin, P., Oses, R., Carrasco-Urra, F., Atala, C., Acuna-Rodriguez, I.S., Convey, P., and Monina-Montenegro, M.A. (2016). Biological interactions and simulated climate change modulates the ecophysiological performance of Colobanthus quitensis in the Antarctic ecosystem. PLoS ONE, 1.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0164844"},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"(2022, September 15). British Antarctic Survey Natural Environmental Research Council. Available online: https:\/\/www.bas.ac.uk\/about\/antarctica\/wildlife\/plants\/."},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"(2022, September 15). The Center for Agriculture and Bioscience International Invasive Species Compendium. Available online: https:\/\/www.cabi.org\/isc\/datasheet\/42485."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"717","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1523-1739.2012.01865.x","article-title":"Occurrence of the non-native annual bluegrass on the Antarctic mainland and its negative effects on native plants","volume":"26","author":"Rodrigo","year":"2012","journal-title":"Conserv. Biol."},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"1","article-title":"Colonization and demographic structure of Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis along an altitudinal gradient on Living- ston Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica","volume":"1","author":"Vera","year":"2011","journal-title":"Polar Res."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1597","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-017-1650-7","article-title":"Competition between native Antarctic vascular plants and invasive Poa annua changes with temperature and soil nitrogen availability","volume":"20","author":"Cavieres","year":"2018","journal-title":"Biol. Invasions."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.3897\/neobiota.51.37250","article-title":"Increasing impacts by Antarctica\u2019s most widespread invasive plant species as result of direct competition with native vascular plants","volume":"51","author":"Bergstrom","year":"2019","journal-title":"NeoBiota."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2819","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-019-02016-7","article-title":"Positive interactions among native and invasive vascular plants in Antarctica: Assessing the \u201cnurse effect\u201d at different spatial scales","volume":"21","author":"Atala","year":"2019","journal-title":"Biol. Invasions."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2224","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2008.01838.x","article-title":"Impacts of climate change on the vegetation of Africa: An adaptive dynamic vegetation modelling approach","volume":"15","author":"Scheiter","year":"2009","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"263","article-title":"Potential impacts of climate change on mixed broadleaved-Korean pine forest stand: A gap model approach","volume":"34","author":"Goufan","year":"1996","journal-title":"Clim. Change."},{"key":"ref_18","first-page":"321","article-title":"An improved species distribution model for Scots pine and downy oak under future climate change in the NW Italian Alps","volume":"72","author":"Georgio","year":"2014","journal-title":"Ann. For. Sci."},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Kerns, B., and Peterson, D.W. (2022, May 05). An Overview of Vegetation Models for Climate Change Impacts, Available online: www.fs.usda.gov\/ccrc\/topics\/overview-vegetation-models."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1217","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12125","article-title":"Species distribution models in conservation biogeography: Developments and challenges","volume":"19","author":"Franklin","year":"2013","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1007\/s10707-009-0090-7","article-title":"openModeller: A generic approach to species\u2019 potential distribution modelling","volume":"15","author":"Sutton","year":"2011","journal-title":"Geoinformatica"},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"(2019, November 07). Vensim. Available online: https:\/\/vensim.com\/."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1941","DOI":"10.1007\/s12205-014-0570-7","article-title":"An analysis of the sustainability of basin water resources using Vensim model","volume":"19","author":"Abadi","year":"2015","journal-title":"KSCE J. Civ. Eng."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"564","DOI":"10.1002\/sres.2487","article-title":"The leaf as a sustainable and renewable system","volume":"34","author":"Krupanidhi","year":"2017","journal-title":"Syst. Res. Behav. Sci."},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"Maani, K. (2013). Decision-making for climate change adaptation: A systems thinking approach. Natl. Clim. Change Adapt. Res. Facil. Gold Coast, 66."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100754","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gsd.2022.100754","article-title":"A system dynamic approach for reservoir impact assessment on groundwater aquifer considering climate change scenario","volume":"17","author":"Sardo","year":"2022","journal-title":"Groundw. Sustain. Dev."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Carrera-Villacr\u00e9s, D.V., Quinteros-Carabel\u00ed, J.A., G\u00f3mez, A.J., Solano, E.M., Llumiquinga, G.E., and Burgos, C.A. (2019, January 16\u201319). Dynamic model for the management of water resource and water aptitude for irrigation of the Togllahuayco gorge in the Guangopolo micro-basin. Proceedings of the 5th International Conference of Water Resource and Environment (WRE 2019), Macao, China."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2028.2008.01062.x","article-title":"Understanding future ecosystem changes in Lake Victoria basin using participatory local scenarios","volume":"47","author":"Odadaa","year":"2009","journal-title":"Afr. J. Ecol."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"367","DOI":"10.1007\/s00267-017-0879-3","article-title":"Deforestation and carbon loss in Southwest Amazonia: Impact of Brazil\u2019s revised forest code","volume":"60","author":"Roriz","year":"2017","journal-title":"Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Global Biodiversity Information Facility (2022, May 25). Free and Open Access to Biodiversity Data. Available online: https:\/\/www.gbif.org\/."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"637","DOI":"10.1017\/S0032247414000916","article-title":"Poa annua in the maritime Antarctic: An overview","volume":"51","author":"Chwedorzewska","year":"2014","journal-title":"Polar Rec."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"(2022, May 25). NASA Earth Observations (NEO), Available online: https:\/\/neo.gsfc.nasa.gov\/."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"(2020, June 19). Quantum GIS. Available online: https:\/\/www.qgis.org."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aquabot.2005.09.004","article-title":"A simple equation for describing the temperature dependent growth of free-floating macrophytes","volume":"84","author":"Roijackers","year":"2006","journal-title":"Aquat. Bot."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1753","DOI":"10.1007\/s00300-015-1740-x","article-title":"Germination capacity of five polar Caryophyllaceae and Poaceae species under different temperature conditions","volume":"38","author":"Giewanowska","year":"2015","journal-title":"Polar Biol."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1527","DOI":"10.1002\/csc2.20441","article-title":"Current understanding of the Poa annua life cycle","volume":"61","author":"Carroll","year":"2021","journal-title":"Crop Sci."},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"(2020, June 23). The R Project for Statistical Computing. Available online: https:\/\/www.R-project.org\/."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1091","DOI":"10.1007\/s00300-015-1668-1","article-title":"A recolonization record of the invasive Poa annua in Paradise Bay, Antarctic Peninsula: Modeling of the potential spreading risk","volume":"38","author":"Pertierra","year":"2015","journal-title":"Polar Biol."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1031","DOI":"10.1007\/s10531-015-0896-6","article-title":"Biological invasions in terrestrial Antarctica: What is the current status and can we respond?","volume":"24","author":"Hughes","year":"2015","journal-title":"Biodivers. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"939","DOI":"10.1007\/s00300-016-2006-y","article-title":"First step to eradication of Poa annua L. from Point Thomas Oiasis (King George Island, South Shetlands, Antarctica)","volume":"40","author":"Galera","year":"2017","journal-title":"Polar Biol."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1017\/S1464793104006542","article-title":"Biological invasions in the Antarctic: Extent, impacts and implications","volume":"80","author":"Frenot","year":"2005","journal-title":"Biol. Rev."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1599","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cub.2022.01.074","article-title":"Acceleration of climate warming and plant dynamics in Antarctica","volume":"32","author":"Cannone","year":"2022","journal-title":"Curr. Biol."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"290","DOI":"10.2307\/1551941","article-title":"Rapid population increase in native vascular plants in the Argentine Island, Antarctic Peninsula","volume":"26","author":"Fowbert","year":"1994","journal-title":"Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kerry, K.R., and Hempel, G. (1990). Signy Island as a paradigm of biological and environmental change in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. Antarctic Ecosystems, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-84074-6"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"322","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00627745","article-title":"Vascular plants as bioindicators of regional warming in Antarctica","volume":"99","author":"Smith","year":"1994","journal-title":"Oecologia"},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1016\/j.polar.2018.05.006","article-title":"Influence of climate change on Antarctic flora","volume":"18","author":"Singh","year":"2018","journal-title":"Polar Sci."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"449","DOI":"10.1007\/s00300-016-1972-4","article-title":"Growing temperature affects seed germination of the antarctic plant Colobanthus quitensis (Kunth) Bartl (Caryophyllaceae)","volume":"40","author":"Sanhueza","year":"2017","journal-title":"Polar Biol."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.polar.2016.11.003","article-title":"Morfo-physiological response of Colobanthus quitensis and Juncus bufonius under different simulations of climate change","volume":"11","author":"Rifo","year":"2017","journal-title":"Polar Sci."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"eaaz0888","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aaz0888","article-title":"Antarctic environmental change and biological responses","volume":"5","author":"Convey","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Adv."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115017","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geoderma.2021.115017","article-title":"Rapid soil and vegetation changes at regional scale in continental Antarctica","volume":"394","author":"Cannone","year":"2021","journal-title":"Geoderma"},{"key":"ref_51","first-page":"592","article-title":"How much of the invader\u2019s genetic variability can slip between our fingers? A case study of secondary dispersal of Poa annua on King George Island (Antarctica)","volume":"8","author":"Chwedorzewska","year":"2017","journal-title":"Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2019.02.014","article-title":"Ice-free area expansion compounds the non-native species threat to Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity","volume":"232","author":"Duffy","year":"2019","journal-title":"Biol. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.1007\/s10531-019-01877-7","article-title":"Establishment and eradication of an alien plant species in Antarctica: Poa annua at Signy Island","volume":"29","author":"Maalfasi","year":"2019","journal-title":"Biodivers. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1456","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2018.01456","article-title":"Warmer temperatures affect the in situ freezing resistance of the Antarctic vascular plants","volume":"9","author":"Cavieres","year":"2018","journal-title":"Front. Plant. Sci."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2016.04.024","article-title":"Hydrologic connectivity and implications for ecosystem processes\u2014Lessons from naked watersheds","volume":"277","author":"Gooseff","year":"2017","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"339","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gca.2018.12.001","article-title":"Site conditions and vegetation determine phosphorus and sulfer speciation in soils of Antarctica","volume":"246","author":"Prietzel","year":"2019","journal-title":"Geochim. Cosmoshim. Acta"}],"container-title":["Geomatics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2673-7418\/2\/4\/22\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T00:38:30Z","timestamp":1760143110000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2673-7418\/2\/4\/22"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,23]]},"references-count":56,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12]]}},"alternative-id":["geomatics2040022"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/geomatics2040022","relation":{},"ISSN":["2673-7418"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2673-7418","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,23]]}}}