{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,17]],"date-time":"2025-11-17T21:37:19Z","timestamp":1763415439853,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,14]],"date-time":"2018-05-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1526256000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Geosciences"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Coastal zones currently face severe weaknesses and are subject to high-risk situations. Tropical storm events can contribute to the occurrence of these high-risk situations by causing storm surges with high water levels and, consequently, episodes of wave-overtopping and coastal flooding. This work considers a series of storm scenarios and analyzes their impacts through numerical modeling. Firstly, historical storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the Portuguese northern coast in terms of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with a high potential of occurrence are generated using a specific tool of the DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate an ensemble of simulations to assess the storms\u2019 effects on coastal water levels. Based on the statistical data of the numerical modeling results, a synthesis of the coastal storms\u2019 impacts at different locations within the study area is performed. Depending on the storm category, surge heights can reach 1.10 m above tide levels under simulated conditions on the Portuguese northwestern coast.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/geosciences8050178","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,15]],"date-time":"2018-05-15T03:29:34Z","timestamp":1526354974000},"page":"178","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Hazard Assessment of Storm Events for the Portuguese Northern Coast"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"Mariana","family":"Gomes","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Lara","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Jos\u00e9","family":"Pinho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5527-3116","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jos\u00e9","family":"Antunes do Carmo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil Engineering, FCTUC\u2014Polo II, University of Coimbra, 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K., and Meyer, L.A. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, IPCC. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Santos, F.D., Forbes, K., and Moita, R. (2002). Chapter 2\u201420th Century Portuguese Climate and Climate Scenarios. Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios Impacts and Adaptation Measures (SLAM Project), Gradiva."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"237","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2013.09.019","article-title":"Rapid rise in effective sea-level in southwest Bangladesh: Its causes and contemporary rates","volume":"111","author":"Pethick","year":"2013","journal-title":"Glob. Planet. Chang."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"248","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmarsys.2014.06.012","article-title":"Influence of the Minho River plume on the Rias Baixas (NW of the Iberian Peninsula)","volume":"139","author":"Sousa","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Mar. Syst."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"Dinis, J.L., and Tavares, A.O. (2005, January 5\u20138). Susceptibility geomorphology of tsunamis in the Portuguese west coast. In Proceeding of the III Congress on Planning and Management of Coastal Areas of the Portuguese-Speaking Countries, Maputo, Mozambique. (In Portuguese)."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"Loureiro, E., Granja, H., and Pinho, J.L.S. (2005). Morphodynamics of the C\u00e1vado Estuary Inlet (Nw Portugal), International Coastal Symposium."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-007-4123-2_15","article-title":"Coastal defence in NW Portugal: The improbable victory","volume":"3","author":"Cooper","year":"2012","journal-title":"The Pitfalls of Shoreline Stabilization (Coastal Research Library)"},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"(2014, September 29). Wind and Weather Statistic Porto\u2014Windfinder. Available online: http:\/\/www.windfinder.com\/wind statistics\/porto."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1099","DOI":"10.1016\/j.energy.2015.08.067","article-title":"High resolution local wave energy modelling in the Iberian Peninsula","volume":"91","author":"Silva","year":"2015","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"COMET (2014, February 13). Meteorology Education and Training\u2014Resource Description: Wave Life Cycle II: Propagation and Dispersion. Available online: https:\/\/www.meted.ucar.edu\/training_module.php?id=188#.VBBNI_ldV9p."},{"key":"ref_11","unstructured":"CCA\u2014Centre for Climate Adaptation (2014, September 09). Climate Change\u2014Portugal\u2014Climatechangepost.com. Available online: http:\/\/www.climateadaptation.eu\/ portugal\/climate-change\/."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"546","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2001)014<0546:ACOTET>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"A climatology of the extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones","volume":"14","author":"Hart","year":"2001","journal-title":"J. Clim."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.2112\/05A-0005.1","article-title":"Tropical cyclones and the evolution of the sedimentary coast of Northern Australia","volume":"22","author":"Nott","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Coast. Res."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2015.11.006","article-title":"Hazard Assessment of storm events for The Battery, New York","volume":"118","author":"Gomes","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_15","unstructured":"(2017, March 19). Historical Hurricane Tracks\u2014NOAA\u2019s Office for Coastal Management, Available online: https:\/\/coast. noaa.gov\/hurricanes\/."},{"key":"ref_16","unstructured":"(2017, March 20). Unisys Weather\u2014Hurricane\/Tropical Data. Available online: http:\/\/weather.unisys.com\/hurricane\/ index.php."},{"key":"ref_17","unstructured":"Deltares (2011). User Manual Delft3D-FLOW. Hydro-Morphodynamics, Version: 3.15, Deltares."},{"key":"ref_18","unstructured":"Deltares (2017, July 24). DelftDashboard\u2014OpenEarth\u2014Deltares Public Wiki. Available online: https:\/\/publicwiki.deltares.nl\/display\/ DDB\/Delft+Dashboard."},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Deltares (2009). Wind Enhanced Scheme (WES) for Cyclone Modelling. User Manual Version 3.00, Deltares."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1212","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1980)108<1212:AAMOTW>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"An analytic model of the wind pressure profiles in hurricanes","volume":"108","author":"Holland","year":"1980","journal-title":"Mon. Weather Rev."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2785","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0477(1997)078<2785:EFOHT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks","volume":"78","author":"Zhang","year":"1997","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meterol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"(2014, March 30). Mouse Keyboard Macro Recorder\u2014Automation Software. Available online: http:\/\/www.asoftech.com\/ata\/."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1222","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)0733-9445(2000)126:10(1222)","article-title":"Simulation of hurricane risk in the US using empirical track model","volume":"126","author":"Vickery","year":"2000","journal-title":"J. Struct. Eng."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"383","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-008-9268-9","article-title":"Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation","volume":"48","author":"Rumpf","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"ref_25","first-page":"3","article-title":"The role of the SLOSH model in national weather service storm surge forecasting","volume":"33","author":"Glahn","year":"2009","journal-title":"Natl. Weather Dig."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"(2014, March 29). Data\u2014UHSLC. Available online: http:\/\/uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu\/data\/faq."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"BODC (2014, March 29). Bathymetry Data from the GEBCO_08 Grid. Available online: https:\/\/www.gebco.net\/data_and_products\/gridded_bathymetry_data\/."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"COAS (2017, October 10). TPXO 7.2\u2014Global Inverse Tide Model. Available online: http:\/\/volkov.oce.orst.edu\/tides\/TPXO7.2.html."}],"container-title":["Geosciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-3263\/8\/5\/178\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T15:04:14Z","timestamp":1760195054000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-3263\/8\/5\/178"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,14]]},"references-count":28,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,5]]}},"alternative-id":["geosciences8050178"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/geosciences8050178","relation":{},"ISSN":["2076-3263"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2076-3263"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,14]]}}}