{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,19]],"date-time":"2026-04-19T00:46:45Z","timestamp":1776559605408,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":85,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,1]],"date-time":"2025-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754006400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"FCT\u2014Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["UID\/04045"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UID\/04045"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Healthcare"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Introduction: The main purpose of this study was to test a hierarchical model of motivation that integrates Achievement Goal Theory and Self-Determination Theory to explain and predict exercise adherence. Method: In total, 2180 exercisers (1020 female, 1160 male) aged between 18 and 60 years, from different gyms and health clubs, completed several scales validated in exercise settings, regarding perceived motivational climate, basic psychological need satisfaction, behavioral regulation, and exercise adherence. For the last measure, weekly computer access to a control system over a 6-month period before and after data collection was consulted. Results: Through structural equation models (SEM), it was verified that (1) task-involving climate positively predicted basic psychological needs. In turn, the satisfaction of these needs predicted autonomous motivation, which led to a positive prediction of adherence; (2) a small variation in exercise adherence was explained by the motivational model under analysis. Nevertheless, models significantly improved their analytical power when past adherence was inserted in the model increasing the explained variance in future behavior from 9.2% to 64%. Conclusions: In conclusion, autonomous motivation can predict people\u2019s exercise adherence, and past behavior increases that predictive effect. The present study brings scientific evidence to the popular saying \u201ctell me what you\u2019ve done and, and I\u2019ll predict what you\u2019ll do\u201d.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/healthcare13151879","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,1]],"date-time":"2025-08-01T08:51:41Z","timestamp":1754038301000},"page":"1879","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Tell Me What You\u2019ve Done, and I\u2019ll Predict What You\u2019ll Do: The Role of Motivation and Past Behavior in Exercise Adherence"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8156-3291","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lu\u00eds","family":"Cid","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Sport Sciences School of Rio Maior, Santar\u00e9m Polytechnic University (ESDRM-IPSantar\u00e9m), 2040-413 Rio Maior, Portugal"},{"name":"Research Centre in Sports Sciences, Health Sciences and Human Development (CIDESD), 5000-558 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7179-6814","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Diogo","family":"Monteiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Centre in Sports Sciences, Health Sciences and Human Development (CIDESD), 5000-558 Vila Real, Portugal"},{"name":"School of Education and Social Sciences (ESECS), Polytechnic University of Leiria, 2411-901 Leiria, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9875-6986","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Teresa","family":"Bento","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sport Sciences School of Rio Maior, Santar\u00e9m Polytechnic University (ESDRM-IPSantar\u00e9m), 2040-413 Rio Maior, Portugal"},{"name":"Research Centre in Sports Sciences, Health Sciences and Human Development (CIDESD), 5000-558 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1727-3537","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Miguel","family":"Jacinto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Centre in Sports Sciences, Health Sciences and Human Development (CIDESD), 5000-558 Vila Real, Portugal"},{"name":"School of Education and Social Sciences (ESECS), Polytechnic University of Leiria, 2411-901 Leiria, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4402-1973","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anabela","family":"Vitorino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sport Sciences School of Rio Maior, Santar\u00e9m Polytechnic University (ESDRM-IPSantar\u00e9m), 2040-413 Rio Maior, Portugal"},{"name":"Research Centre in Sports Sciences, Health Sciences and Human Development (CIDESD), 5000-558 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4587-5903","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Diogo S.","family":"Teixeira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Physical Education and Sport, Lus\u00f3fona University, 1749-024 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"Research Center in Sport, Physical Education, and Exercise and Health (CIDEFES), 1749-024 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5055-2696","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro","family":"Duarte-Mendes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sports and Well-Being, Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"},{"name":"Sport Physical Activity and Health Research and Innovation Center (SPRINT), 6000-084 Castelo Branco, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9227-8522","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vasco","family":"Bastos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Physical Education and Sport, Lus\u00f3fona University, 1749-024 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"Research Center in Sport, Physical Education, and Exercise and Health (CIDEFES), 1749-024 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8529-5546","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nuno","family":"Couto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sport Sciences School of Rio Maior, Santar\u00e9m Polytechnic University (ESDRM-IPSantar\u00e9m), 2040-413 Rio Maior, Portugal"},{"name":"Research Centre in Sports Sciences, Health Sciences and Human Development (CIDESD), 5000-558 Vila Real, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Festino, E., Papale, O., Di Rocco, F., De Maio, M., Cortis, C., and Fusco, A. 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