{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,27]],"date-time":"2026-03-27T17:08:05Z","timestamp":1774631285691,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,3]],"date-time":"2025-04-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1743638400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["UIDB\/04625\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04625\/2020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Hydrology"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study explores the application of Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) to improve the predictability of hourly potential hydropower production for a small run\u2013of\u2013the\u2013river hydropower plant in Portugal. Accurate hourly power forecasts are essential for optimizing participation in the spot electricity market, where deviations incur penalties. This research introduces the novel application of the TFT, a deep\u2013learning model tailored for time series forecasting and uncovering complex patterns, to predict hydropower production based on meteorological data, historical production records, and plant capacity. Key challenges such as filtering observed hydropower outputs (to remove strong, and unpredictable human influence) and adapting the historical series to installed capacity increases are discussed. An analysis of meteorological information from several sources, including ground information, reanalysis, and forecasting models, was also undertaken. Regarding the latter, precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium\u2013Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) proved to be more accurate than those of the Global Forecast System (GFS). When combined with ECMWF data, the TFT model achieved significantly higher accuracy in potential hydropower production predictions. This work provides a framework for integrating advanced machine learning models into operational hydropower scheduling, aiming to reduce classical modeling efforts while maximizing energy production efficiency, reliability, and market performance.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/hydrology12040081","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,3]],"date-time":"2025-04-03T04:33:43Z","timestamp":1743654823000},"page":"81","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Application of Temporal Fusion Transformers to Run-Of-The-River Hydropower Scheduling"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-6266-020X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rafael","family":"Francisco","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS), Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4592-1455","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jos\u00e9 Pedro","family":"Matos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS), Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-0439-7677","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rui","family":"Marinheiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS), Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Nuno","family":"Lopes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Weather Forecast and Watch, Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), Rua C do Aeroporto, 1749-077 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5221-1139","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria Manuela","family":"Portela","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS), Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Pedro","family":"Barros","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hidroerg\u2014Projectos Energ\u00e9ticos Lda., Rua dos Lus\u00edadas, n\u00b09, 4\u00b0 Dto., 1300-365 Lisboa, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Energy Institute, KPMG, and Kearney (2024). 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