{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T02:11:33Z","timestamp":1760148693031,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":62,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,24]],"date-time":"2023-05-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1684886400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Research Center for Psychological Science of the Faculty of Psychology, University of Lisbon","award":["UIDB\/04527\/2020","UIDP\/04527\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04527\/2020","UIDP\/04527\/2020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J. Intell."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Although widely used in the judgment under uncertainty literature, the so-called Lawyer\u2013Engineer problem does not have a Bayesian solution because the base rates typically oppose qualitative stereotypical information, which has an undefined diagnostic value. We propose an experimental paradigm that elicits participants\u2019 subjective estimates of the diagnosticity of stereotypical information and allows us to investigate the degree to which participants are able to integrate both sources of information (base rates and stereotypical descriptions) according to the Bayesian rule. This paradigm was used to test the hypothesis that the responses (probability estimates) to the Lawyer\u2013Engineer problem from more rational individuals deviate from normative Bayesian solutions in a way that shows smaller but more systematic bias. The results further suggest that the estimates of less rational participants are noisier (less reliable) but may be more accurate when aggregated across several problems.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/jintelligence11060100","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,25]],"date-time":"2023-05-25T01:36:28Z","timestamp":1684978588000},"page":"100","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["When Cognitive Reflection Leads to Less Overall but More Systematic Judgment Bias: The Case of the Base Rates Fallacy"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8962-7157","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"M\u00e1rio B.","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CICPSI, Faculdade de Psicologia, Universidade de Lisboa, 1649-013 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8427-4337","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hugo","family":"Assun\u00e7\u00e3o","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CICPSI, Faculdade de Psicologia, Universidade de Lisboa, 1649-013 Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8449-3150","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Amanda","family":"Seruti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CICPSI, Faculdade de Psicologia, Universidade de Lisboa, 1649-013 Lisboa, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.35.5.303","article-title":"Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction","volume":"35","author":"Ajzen","year":"1977","journal-title":"Journal of Personality and Social Psychology"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X07001963","article-title":"Base-rate respect: From statistical formats to cognitive structures","volume":"30","author":"Barbey","year":"2007","journal-title":"Behavioral and Brain Sciences"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.1016\/0001-6918(80)90046-3","article-title":"The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments","volume":"44","year":"1980","journal-title":"Acta Psychologica"},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"62","article-title":"Base-rate neglect: Foundations and implications","volume":"1","author":"Benjamin","year":"2019","journal-title":"Base-Rate Neglect: Foundations and Implications"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0992(199803\/04)28:2<269::AID-EJSP872>3.0.CO;2-U","article-title":"Natural sampling and base-rate neglect","volume":"28","author":"Betsch","year":"1998","journal-title":"European Journal of Social Psychology"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"354","DOI":"10.1177\/1073191112446655","article-title":"Development of abbreviated nine-item forms of the Raven\u2019s standard progressive matrices test","volume":"19","author":"Bilker","year":"2012","journal-title":"Assessment"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"186","DOI":"10.3758\/MC.38.2.186","article-title":"In conflict with ourselves? 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