{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,4]],"date-time":"2026-02-04T05:59:53Z","timestamp":1770184793116,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":72,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,3]],"date-time":"2026-02-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770076800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Centre of Excellence in Agri-Food Systems and Nutrition at Eduardo Mondlane University"},{"name":"World Bank under the ACE II Additional Financing scheme"},{"name":"Erasmus+ Programme"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Resources"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study analyzes forest cover change patterns, agricultural expansion, and economic growth in Mozambique from 2001 to 2024, using remote sensing data from Global Forest Watch and socioeconomic indicators from the World Bank and FAO. Mozambique lost approximately 4.6 million hectares of forest during the analyzed period, with agriculture accounting for 97.4% of total deforestation. GDP per capita increased by 90.5%, while cultivated area expanded by 116.4%. However, agricultural productivity declined by 25.3%, revealing a paradox: production growth relied on extensive land expansion rather than intensification. Statistical analysis of three 8-year sub-periods identified significant differences in GDP per capita, agricultural GDP per capita, population, and agricultural employment (p &lt; 0.001), but agricultural deforestation remained statistically stable (p = 0.065). This pattern suggests premature decoupling between economic growth and deforestation at income levels (USD 604) substantially below historical Environmental Kuznets Curve thresholds (USD 8000\u201310,000). However, this decoupling is fragile, driven by capital-intensive extractive sectors that generate GDP growth without absorbing rural populations. The persistence of extensive agricultural expansion, combined with weak governance, demographic pressures, and climate variability, indicates that observed stabilization represents an initial, vulnerable phase requiring structural transformation through agricultural intensification, inclusive industrialization, land tenure reform, and climate resilience building.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/resources15020026","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,3]],"date-time":"2026-02-03T16:46:28Z","timestamp":1770137188000},"page":"26","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Agricultural Expansion and Forest Transition in Mozambique: Evidence of Premature Decoupling (2001\u20132024)"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-7121-4593","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sebasti\u00e3o De Herm\u00ednia Lucas","family":"Vilanculos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing, Department of Rural Sociology, School of Rural Development, Eduardo Mondlane University, Vilankulo 1304, Mozambique"},{"name":"Regional Centre of Excellence in Agri-Food Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN), Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo 1201, Mozambique"},{"name":"Department of Geosciences, Environment and Territorial Planning, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Sosdito Estev\u00e3o","family":"Mananze","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing, Department of Rural Sociology, School of Rural Development, Eduardo Mondlane University, Vilankulo 1304, Mozambique"},{"name":"Regional Centre of Excellence in Agri-Food Systems and Nutrition (CE-AFSN), Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo 1201, Mozambique"},{"name":"Cambine Campus, United Methodist University of Mozambique, Inhambane 1308, Mozambique"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8299-324X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"M\u00e1rio Campos","family":"Cunha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geosciences, Environment and Territorial Planning, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal"},{"name":"INESC TEC\u2014Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering, Technology and Science, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"FAO (2020). 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