{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,17]],"date-time":"2026-04-17T06:27:27Z","timestamp":1776407247569,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,3]],"date-time":"2013-05-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1367539200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/rs5052113","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,3]],"date-time":"2013-05-03T10:55:42Z","timestamp":1367578542000},"page":"2113-2144","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":427,"title":["Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of  Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"5","author":[{"given":"Matthias","family":"Forkel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department for Biogeochemical Integration, Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry,  Hans-Kn\u00f6ll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany"}]},{"given":"Nuno","family":"Carvalhais","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department for Biogeochemical Integration, Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry,  Hans-Kn\u00f6ll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany"},{"name":"Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias e Tecnologia, FCT, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7923-4309","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jan","family":"Verbesselt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands"}]},{"given":"Miguel","family":"Mahecha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department for Biogeochemical Integration, Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry,  Hans-Kn\u00f6ll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5322-6340","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christopher","family":"Neigh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA"}]},{"given":"Markus","family":"Reichstein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department for Biogeochemical Integration, Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry,  Hans-Kn\u00f6ll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6","DOI":"10.1186\/1750-0680-1-6","article-title":"Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change","volume":"1","author":"Lucht","year":"2006","journal-title":"Carbon Balance Manage."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1565","DOI":"10.1080\/0143116031000101675","article-title":"Digital change detection methods in ecosystem monitoring: A review","volume":"25","author":"Coppin","year":"2004","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1016\/0034-4257(79)90013-0","article-title":"Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation","volume":"150","author":"Tucker","year":"1979","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"52","DOI":"10.1016\/S0034-4257(99)00057-7","article-title":"Relationships between leaf area index and Landsat TM spectral vegetation indices across three temperate zone sites","volume":"70","author":"Turner","year":"1999","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"28","DOI":"10.2307\/1942049","article-title":"Relationships between NDVI, canopy structure, and photosynthesis in three californian vegetation types","volume":"5","author":"Gamon","year":"1995","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"490","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2004.04.009","article-title":"Evaluation of Modis LAI, FAPAR and the relation between FAPAR and NDVI in a semi-arid environment using in situ measurements","volume":"91","author":"Fensholt","year":"2004","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"481","DOI":"10.1109\/TGRS.1995.8746029","article-title":"The interpretation of spectral vegetation indexes","volume":"33","author":"Myneni","year":"1995","journal-title":"IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.1016\/0034-4257(95)00142-5","article-title":"Global discrimination of land cover types from metrics derived from AVHRR pathfinder data","volume":"54","author":"DeFries","year":"1995","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"184","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-001-0109-8","article-title":"Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982 to 1999","volume":"45","author":"Tucker","year":"2001","journal-title":"Int. J. Biometeorol."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"698","DOI":"10.1038\/386698a0","article-title":"Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991","volume":"386","author":"Myneni","year":"1997","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1687","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1071828","article-title":"Climatic control of the high-latitude vegetation greening trend and pinatubo effect","volume":"296","author":"Lucht","year":"2002","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"045509","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/6\/4\/045509","article-title":"Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: Dynamics, impacts and research priorities","volume":"6","author":"Forbes","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13521","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0506179102","article-title":"Satellite-observed photosynthetic trends across boreal north america associated with climate and fire disturbance","volume":"102","author":"Goetz","year":"2005","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"333","DOI":"10.1029\/2007EO340001","article-title":"Northern high-latitude ecosystems respond to climate change","volume":"88","author":"Bunn","year":"2007","journal-title":"Eos Trans. AGU"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1240","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1014425108","article-title":"Spring temperature change and its implication in the change of vegetation growth in North America from 1982 to 2006","volume":"108","author":"Wang","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3228","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2011.02419.x","article-title":"Changes in satellite-derived vegetation growth trend in temperate and boreal Eurasia from 1982 to 2006","volume":"17","author":"Piao","year":"2011","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45501","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/6\/4\/045501","article-title":"Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008: Ecological variability and regional differences","volume":"6","author":"Beck","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2011.12.015","article-title":"Evaluation of earth observation based global long term vegetation trends\u2014Comparing GIMMS and MODIS global NDVI time series","volume":"119","author":"Fensholt","year":"2012","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4485","DOI":"10.1080\/01431160500168686","article-title":"An extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI dataset compatible with MODIS and spot vegetation NDVI data","volume":"26","author":"Tucker","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"760","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2009.01956.x","article-title":"Debating the greening vs. Browning of the north american boreal forest: Differences between satellite datasets","volume":"16","author":"Chuvieco","year":"2010","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2729","DOI":"10.3390\/rs2122729","article-title":"The browning of Alaska\u2019s boreal forest","volume":"2","author":"Parent","year":"2010","journal-title":"Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"045502","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/6\/4\/045502","article-title":"Detecting long-term changes to vegetation in northern Canada using the Landsat satellite image archive","volume":"6","author":"Fraser","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"373","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2011.01598.x","article-title":"Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift","volume":"14","author":"Beck","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Berner, L.T., Beck, P.S.A., Bunn, A.G., Lloyd, A.H., and Goetz, S.J. (2011). High-latitude tree growth and satellite vegetation indices: Correlations and trends in Russia and Canada (1982\u20132008). J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeosci., 116.","DOI":"10.1029\/2010JG001475"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41003","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/6\/4\/041003","article-title":"Browning boreal forests of western north america","volume":"6","author":"Verbyla","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecoinf.2007.03.008","article-title":"Modeling the effects of varying data quality on trend detection in environmental monitoring","volume":"2","author":"Sulkava","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ecol. Inform."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1029\/2002GL016772","article-title":"Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982\u20131999","volume":"30","author":"Eklundh","year":"2003","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"282","DOI":"10.1109\/LGRS.2004.834805","article-title":"Trend analysis of the pathfinder AVHRR land (PAL) NDVI data for the deserts of central Asia","volume":"1","author":"Henebry","year":"2004","journal-title":"IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S87","DOI":"10.5589\/m10-021","article-title":"A land surface phenology assessment of the northern polar regions using MODIS reflectance time series","volume":"36","author":"Henebry","year":"2010","journal-title":"Can. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2009.08.014","article-title":"Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series","volume":"114","author":"Verbesselt","year":"2010","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"692","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2010.10.011","article-title":"Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series","volume":"115","author":"Schaepman","year":"2011","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2309","DOI":"10.1016\/j.patrec.2010.06.021","article-title":"Identifying multiple spatiotemporal patterns: A refined view on terrestrial photosynthetic activity","volume":"31","author":"Mahecha","year":"2010","journal-title":"Pattern Recogn. Lett."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2970","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2010.08.003","article-title":"Phenological change detection while accounting for abrupt and gradual trends in satellite image time series","volume":"114","author":"Verbesselt","year":"2010","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"823","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-008-0437-z","article-title":"The modulated annual cycle: An alternative reference frame for climate anomalies","volume":"31","author":"Wu","year":"2008","journal-title":"Clim. Dyn."},{"key":"ref_35","first-page":"642","article-title":"Trend changes in global greening and browning: Contribution of short-term trends to longer-term change","volume":"18","author":"Verbesselt","year":"2011","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1117","DOI":"10.3390\/rs5031117","article-title":"Shifts in global vegetation activity trends","volume":"5","author":"Verbesselt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.659","article-title":"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models","volume":"18","author":"Bai","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Appl. Econometr."},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"Pinzon, J. (2013). Revisiting error, precision and uncertainty in ndvi avhrr data: Development of a consistent NDVI3g time series. Remote Sens., this volume."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Xu, L., Myneni, R.B., Chapin, F.S., Callaghan, T.V., Pinzon, J.E., Tucker, C.J., Zhu, Z., Bi, J., Ciais, P., and Tommervik, H. (2013). Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northern lands. Nature Clim. Change.","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1836"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2584","DOI":"10.1109\/36.885205","article-title":"Effect of orbital drift and sensor changes on the time series of avhrr vegetation index data","volume":"38","author":"Kaufmann","year":"2000","journal-title":"IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1417","DOI":"10.1080\/01431168608948945","article-title":"Characteristics of maximum-value composite images from temporal AVHRR data","volume":"7","author":"Holben","year":"1986","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-9473(03)00030-6","article-title":"Testing and dating of structural changes in practice","volume":"44","author":"Zeileis","year":"2003","journal-title":"Computat. Statist. Data Anal."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.2307\/1907187","article-title":"Nonparametric tests against trend","volume":"13","author":"Mann","year":"1945","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"98","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2012.02.022","article-title":"Near real-time disturbance detection using satellite image time series","volume":"123","author":"Verbesselt","year":"2012","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Golyandina, N., Nekrutkin, V.V., and Zhigljavskiy, A.A. (2001). Analysis of Time Series Structure: SSA and Related Techniques, Chapman & Hall\/CRC.","DOI":"10.1201\/9781420035841"},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1016\/S0034-4257(01)00295-4","article-title":"Status of land cover classification accuracy assessment","volume":"80","author":"Foody","year":"2002","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1016\/0034-4257(91)90048-B","article-title":"A review of assessing the accuracy of classifications of remotely sensed data","volume":"37","author":"Congalton","year":"1991","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.1214\/aoms\/1177731829","article-title":"On a least squares adjustment of a sampled frequency table when the expected marginal totals are known","volume":"11","author":"Deming","year":"1940","journal-title":"Ann. Math. Statist."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1071\/WF02023","article-title":"Analysis of the patterns of large fires in the boreal forest region of Alaska","volume":"11","author":"Kasischke","year":"2002","journal-title":"Int. J. Wildland Fire"},{"key":"ref_50","unstructured":"(2011). FRAMES: Alaska Large Fire Database."},{"key":"ref_51","unstructured":"Schneider, U., Fuchs, T., Meyer-Christoffer, A., and Rudolf, B. Global Precipitation Analysis Products of the GPCC. http:\/\/www.dwd.de\/bvbw\/generator\/DWDWWW\/Content\/Oeffentlichkeit\/KU\/KU4\/KU42\/en\/Reports__Publications\/GPCC__intro__products__2011,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.pdf\/GPCC_intro_products_2011.pdf."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"693","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1181","article-title":"An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids","volume":"25","author":"Mitchell","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1749","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2007.08.018","article-title":"North american vegetation dynamics observed with multi-resolution satellite data","volume":"112","author":"Neigh","year":"2008","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"547","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2008.00396.x","article-title":"The greening and browning of alaska based on 1982\u20132003 satellite data","volume":"17","author":"Verbyla","year":"2008","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"ref_55","first-page":"G04008","article-title":"Large-scale climatic patterns control large lightning fire occurrence in canada and alaska forest regions","volume":"111","author":"Johnson","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1071\/WF01007","article-title":"El Ni\u00f1o and its impact on fire weather conditions in alaska","volume":"10","author":"Hess","year":"2001","journal-title":"Int. J. Wildland Fire"},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"950","DOI":"10.1126\/science.283.5404.950","article-title":"Genesis and evolution of the 1997\u201398 El Ni\u00f1o","volume":"283","author":"McPhaden","year":"1999","journal-title":"Science"}],"container-title":["Remote Sensing"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/5\/5\/2113\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T21:46:31Z","timestamp":1760219191000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2072-4292\/5\/5\/2113"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,3]]},"references-count":57,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,5]]}},"alternative-id":["rs5052113"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/rs5052113","relation":{},"ISSN":["2072-4292"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2072-4292","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2013,5,3]]}}}