{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,20]],"date-time":"2026-01-20T02:25:37Z","timestamp":1768875937502,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,10]],"date-time":"2022-11-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1668038400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Natural Environment Research Council","award":["NE\/R016429\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NE\/R016429\/1"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sustainability"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Comparing the impacts of future scenarios is essential for developing and guiding the political sustainability agenda. This review-based analysis compares six IPBES scenarios for their impacts on 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 20 biodiversity targets (Aichi targets) for the Europe and Central Asia regions. The comparison is based on a review of 143 modeled scenarios synthesized in a plural cost\u2013benefit approach which provides the distances to multiple policy goals. We confirm and substantiate the claim that transformative change is vital but also point out which directions for political transformation are to be preferred. The hopeful message is that large societal losses might still be avoided, and multiple benefits can be generated over the coming decades and centuries. Yet, policies will need to strongly steer away from scenarios based on regional competition, inequality, and economic optimism.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/su142214844","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,10]],"date-time":"2022-11-10T19:17:34Z","timestamp":1668107854000},"page":"14844","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Transformative Change Needs Direction"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4674-4817","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sander","family":"Jacobs","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Team Nature and Society, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, 1000 Brussels, Belgium"},{"name":"Belgian Biodiversity Platform BBPF, WTC III, Boulevard Simon Bolivar 30, 1000 Brussels, Belgium"}]},{"given":"Fernando","family":"Santos-Mart\u00edn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento Tecnolog\u00eda Qu\u00edmica y Ambiental, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, 28933 Madrid, Spain"}]},{"given":"Eeva","family":"Primmer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, 00790 Helsinki, Finland"}]},{"given":"Fanny","family":"Boeraeve","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement GxABT, Biodiversit\u00e9 et Paysage, Universit\u00e9 de Li\u00e8ge-Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, 5030 Gembloux, Belgium"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5815-6089","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alejandra","family":"Mor\u00e1n-Ord\u00f3\u00f1ez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre de Recerca Ecol\u00f2gica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193 Barcelona, Spain"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8245-357X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"V\u00e2nia","family":"Proen\u00e7a","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Martin","family":"Schlaepfer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"enviroSPACE Laboratory, Universit\u00e9 de Gen\u00e8ve, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4826-4457","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lluis","family":"Brotons","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre de Recerca Ecol\u00f2gica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193 Barcelona, Spain"}]},{"given":"Robert","family":"Dunford","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford LL57 2UW, UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7300-2811","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sandra","family":"Lavorel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alpine Ecology Laboratory, French National Centre for Scientific Research CNRS, 38610 Grenoble, France"}]},{"given":"Antoine","family":"Guisan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6295-1061","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joachim","family":"Claudet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), 38610 Paris, France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7711-4135","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zuzana V.","family":"Harm\u00e1\u010dkov\u00e1","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9708-7592","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Inge","family":"Liekens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek VITO, 2400 Mol, Belgium"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1614-9657","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jennifer","family":"Hauck","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CoKnow, 04838 Jesewitz, Germany"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6319-9227","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kasper","family":"Kok","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research WUR, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands"}]},{"given":"Yves","family":"Zinngrebe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Helmholtz-Zentrum f\u00fcr Umweltforschung UFZ, 04318 Leipzig, Germany"}]},{"given":"Simona","family":"Pedde","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University & Research WUR, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6462-7633","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"B\u00e1lint","family":"Cz\u00facz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, H-2163 V\u00e1cr\u00e1t\u00f3t, Hungary"}]},{"given":"Cosimo","family":"Solidoro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, 34010 Sgonico, Italy"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3729-1764","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew","family":"Cantele","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria"}]},{"given":"Christian","family":"Rixen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland"}]},{"given":"Anna","family":"Heck","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Team Nature and Society, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, 1000 Brussels, Belgium"},{"name":"Belgian Biodiversity Platform BBPF, WTC III, Boulevard Simon Bolivar 30, 1000 Brussels, Belgium"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9349-078X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jomme","family":"Desair","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Team Nature and Society, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, 1000 Brussels, Belgium"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1478-2587","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tobias","family":"Plieninger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, Georg-August-Universit\u00e4t G\u00f6ttingen, 37077 G\u00f6ttingen, Germany"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9873-3338","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paula A.","family":"Harrison","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"IPBES (2019). 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