{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,24]],"date-time":"2026-03-24T08:08:27Z","timestamp":1774339707560,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,6]],"date-time":"2023-05-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1683331200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"national funds through the FCT\u2014Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["UIDB\/04647\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04647\/2020"]}]},{"name":"national funds through the FCT\u2014Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["SFRH\/BD\/61544\/2009"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SFRH\/BD\/61544\/2009"]}]},{"name":"national funds through the FCT\u2014Foundation for Science and Technology","award":["UIDB\/04004\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04004\/2020"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDB\/04647\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04647\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["SFRH\/BD\/61544\/2009"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SFRH\/BD\/61544\/2009"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UIDB\/04004\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04004\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"FCT\/MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC)","award":["UIDB\/04647\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04647\/2020"]}]},{"name":"FCT\/MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC)","award":["SFRH\/BD\/61544\/2009"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["SFRH\/BD\/61544\/2009"]}]},{"name":"FCT\/MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC)","award":["UIDB\/04004\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04004\/2020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sustainability"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The Sustainable Development Goals require us to rethink spatial planning policies\u2019 effectiveness. This article proposes a reproducible method for assessing the effect of past planning practices and simulating future land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes with a Cellular Automata model. The originality of our approach is to systematically compare observed changes in LULC with the planning rules in force over almost a century of evolution. A quasi-exhaustive database was constructed at a very fine spatial resolution for the municipality of Portim\u00e3o (Southern Portugal), including the location and changes of LULC categories, and the planning rules of the corresponding time period on nine dates between 1947 and 2018. The quantified measurement of the actual effect of planning rules enables us to identify other determinants of the evolution. Findings reveal that the policies established by the local government\u2014which aimed to foster well-planned comprehensive urban areas\u2014were not as effective as intended. The quantified discrepancies between planning recommendations and observed evolution help to simulate which LULC scenarios could be designed to reach the expected result in future planning policies. Our assessment method could be applied in other urban and tourist regions where land artificialization exerts strong pressure on the environment.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/su15097636","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,8]],"date-time":"2023-05-08T03:34:53Z","timestamp":1683516893000},"page":"7636","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["100 Years of Land-Use and Land-Cover Data: What Has Been the Effect of Spatial Planning in Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Change?"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9274-2049","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Raquel","family":"Faria de Deus","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA), School of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3047-0807","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jos\u00e9 Ant\u00f3nio","family":"Tened\u00f3rio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hist\u00f3ria, Territ\u00f3rios e Comunidades, History, Territories and Communities, Hub at NOVA FCSH for the Centre for Functional Ecology\u2014Science for People & the Planet, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0730-4563","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Denise","family":"Pumain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universit\u00e9 Paris 1 Panth\u00e9on-Sorbonne, 191 rue Saint Jacques, 75005 Paris, France"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7228-6330","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jorge","family":"Rocha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Geographical Studies (CEG), Associate Laboratory TERRA, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning (IGOT), Universidade de Lisboa, 1600-276 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Margarida","family":"Pereira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Interdisciplinary Centre of Social Sciences (CICS.NOVA), School of Social Sciences and Humanities (NOVA FCSH), Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"66","DOI":"10.3406\/bagf.2001.2202","article-title":"T\u00e9l\u00e9d\u00e9tection, Syst\u00e8mes d\u2019information G\u00e9ographique et Suivi de l\u2019\u00e9talement P\u00e9riurbain Dans l\u2019aire M\u00e9tropolitaine de Lisbonne (Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems: Monitoring the Urban Fringe Expansion of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area)","volume":"78","year":"2001","journal-title":"Bull. L\u2019association G\u00e9ogr. Fr."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Faria de Deus, R., and Tened\u00f3rio, J.A. (2021). Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Trajectories: Are They Sustainable?. Sustainability, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/su13168840"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lambin, E.F., and Geist, H.J. (2006). Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: Local Processes and Global Impacts, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/3-540-32202-7"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2012.12.007","article-title":"Assessing Land-Use and -Cover Changes in Relation to Geographic Factors and Urban Planning in the Metropolitan Area of Concepci\u00f3n (Chile). Implications for Biodiversity Conservation","volume":"39","author":"Rojas","year":"2013","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"301","DOI":"10.1016\/S0305-9006(03)00066-7","article-title":"Remote Sensing Technology for Mapping and Monitoring Land-Cover and Land-Use Change","volume":"61","author":"Rogan","year":"2004","journal-title":"Prog. Plan."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"180159","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2018.159","article-title":"A Spatio-Temporal Land Use and Land Cover Reconstruction for India from 1960\u20132010","volume":"5","author":"Moulds","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"M\u00e4yr\u00e4, J., Kivinen, S., Keski-Saari, S., Poikolainen, L., and Kumpula, T. (2023). Utilizing Historical Maps in Identification of Long-Term Land Use and Land Cover Changes. Ambio.","DOI":"10.1007\/s13280-023-01838-z"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sourn, T., Pok, S., Chou, P., Nut, N., Theng, D., Rath, P., Reyes, M.R., and Prasad, P.V.V. (2021). Evaluation of Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Drivers in Battambang Province, Cambodia from 1998 to 2018. Sustainability, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/su132011170"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jafrearsci.2017.06.007","article-title":"The Investigation of Spatiotemporal Variations of Land Surface Temperature Based on Land Use Changes Using NDVI in Southwest of Iran","volume":"134","author":"Fathizad","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Afr. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Leta, M.K., Demissie, T.A., and Tr\u00e4nckner, J. (2021). Modeling and Prediction of Land Use Land Cover Change Dynamics Based on Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Nashe Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Sustainability, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/su13073740"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12814","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-92256-2","article-title":"Global Land Cover Trajectories and Transitions","volume":"11","author":"Radwan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106434","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2022.106434","article-title":"European National Parks Protect Their Surroundings but Not Everywhere: A Study Using Land Use\/Land Cover Dynamics Derived from CORINE Land Cover Data","volume":"124","author":"Mingarro","year":"2023","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Matlhodi, B., Kenabatho, P.K., Parida, B.P., and Maphanyane, J.G. (2021). Analysis of the Future Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Gaborone Dam Catchment Using CA-Markov Model: Implications on Water Resources. Remote Sens., 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/rs13132427"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2018.05.001","article-title":"Urban Land-Use Change: The Role of Strategic Spatial Planning","volume":"51","author":"Hersperger","year":"2018","journal-title":"Glob. Environ. Chang."},{"key":"ref_15","unstructured":"UN DESA (2022). The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2022, UN DESA. Statistics, Sustainable Development."},{"key":"ref_16","unstructured":"Stead, D., and Nadin, V. (2008). Spatial Planning. Key Instrument for Development and Effective Governance with Special Reference to Countries in Transition, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s00168-007-0155-1","article-title":"Modelling Land-Use Change for Spatial Planning Support","volume":"42","author":"Koomen","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ann. Reg. Sci."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Amato, F., Maimone, B.A., Martellozzo, F., Nol\u00e8, G., and Murgante, B. (2016). The Effects of Urban Policies on the Development of Urban Areas. Sustainability, 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/su8040297"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102833","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2021.102833","article-title":"Effect of Zoning Plans on Urban Land-Use Change: A Multi-Scenario Simulation for Supporting Sustainable Urban Growth","volume":"69","author":"Domingo","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sustain. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cities.2018.01.014","article-title":"Urban Climate Change Adaptation: Exploring the Implications of Future Land Cover Scenarios","volume":"77","author":"Carter","year":"2018","journal-title":"Cities"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104624","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2022.104624","article-title":"Long-Term Changes in 3D Urban Form in Four Spanish Cities","volume":"230","author":"Domingo","year":"2023","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"Koomen, E., and Dekkers, J. (2013). Cities and Nature, Springer."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"223","DOI":"10.1016\/0264-8377(95)00005-X","article-title":"Rural Land Use and Land Cover Change: Implications for Local Planning in the River Raisin Watershed","volume":"12","author":"Erickson","year":"1995","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1529","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2017.10.294","article-title":"Modeling and Evaluating Land-Use\/Land-Cover Change for Urban Planning and Sustainability: A Case Study of Dongying City, China","volume":"172","author":"Wang","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2015.10.023","article-title":"Compliance of Land Cover Changes with Municipal Land Use Planning: Evidence from the Lisbon Metropolitan Region (1990\u20132007)","volume":"51","author":"Abrantes","year":"2016","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105771","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2021.105771","article-title":"The Role of Spatial Planning in Land Change: An Assessment of Urban Planning and Nature Conservation Efficiency at the Southeastern Coast of Brazil","volume":"111","author":"Daunt","year":"2021","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Faria de Deus, R. (2015). GIS-Based Measurement, Analysis and Modelling of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Coastal Areas. The Case of the Algarve-Portugal. [Ph.D. Thesis, Universidade Nova de Lisboa]."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Santos, T., Deus, R., Rocha, J., and Tened\u00f3rio, J.A. (2021). Assessing Sustainable Urban Development Trends in a Dynamic Tourist Coastal Area Using 3D Spatial Indicators. Energies, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/en14165044"},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Statistics Portugal (2021). Statistics Portugal Population and Housing Census 2021.","DOI":"10.1787\/f9e2c08a-en"},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Statistics Portugal (2020). Statistic Portugal Projections of Resident Population in Portugal 2018\u20132080."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Statistics Portugal (2011). Statistics Portugal Population and Housing Census 2011."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"Statistics Portugal (2001). Statistics Portugal Population and Housing Census 2001."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"Statistics Portugal (1991). Statistics Portugal Population and Housing Census 1991."},{"key":"ref_34","first-page":"131","article-title":"Urban Sprawl in Portugal Based on Urban Systems Spatial Boundaries","volume":"7","year":"2012","journal-title":"ACE"},{"key":"ref_35","unstructured":"SNIG (2022). National Geographic Information Infrastructure Portugal 2022, SNIG, Dire\u00e7\u00e3o-Geral do Territ\u00f3rio."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tened\u00f3rio, J.A., Estanqueiro, R., and Henriques, C.D. (2021). Methods and Applications of Geospatial Technology in Sustainable Urbanism, IGI Global.","DOI":"10.4018\/978-1-7998-2249-3"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Beinat, E., and Nijkamp, P. (1998). Multicriteria Analysis for Land-Use Management, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-9058-7"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1177\/001316446002000104","article-title":"A Coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales","volume":"20","author":"Cohen","year":"1960","journal-title":"Educ. Psychol. Meas."},{"key":"ref_39","unstructured":"van den Berg, L., Drewett, R., Lh, K., Rossi, A., and Cht, V. (1982). Urban Europe: A Study of Growth and Decline, Pergamon."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"862","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2012.01.003","article-title":"The Actual Impact of Comprehensive Land-Use Plans: Insights from High Resolution Observations","volume":"29","author":"Alfasi","year":"2012","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"156","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2010.05.007","article-title":"Urban Settlements Delimitation in Low-Density Areas\u2014An Application to the Municipality of Tomar (Portugal)","volume":"97","author":"Ferreira","year":"2010","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"526","DOI":"10.1684\/agr.2013.0669","article-title":"Lez\u00edria Do Tejo: Agriculture et \u00c9talement Urbain Aux Marges M\u00e9tropolitaines de Lisbonne","volume":"22","author":"Abrantes","year":"2013","journal-title":"Cah. Agric."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wu, Y., Fan, P., Li, B., Ouyang, Z., Liu, Y., and You, H. (2017). The Effectiveness of Planning Control on Urban Growth: Evidence from Hangzhou, China. Sustainability, 9.","DOI":"10.3390\/su9050855"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"650","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2010.11.002","article-title":"The Territorial Dynamics of Fast-Growing Regions: Unsustainable Land Use Change and Future Policy Challenges in Madrid, Spain","volume":"31","author":"Hewitt","year":"2011","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"277","DOI":"10.1177\/0975425312473226","article-title":"Land Use Dynamics and Peri-Urban Growth Characteristics Reflections on Master Plan and Urban Suitability from a Sprawling North Indian City","volume":"3","author":"Dutta","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environ. Urban. Asia"},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1063","DOI":"10.1111\/cobi.13687","article-title":"Urban Sprawl into Natura 2000 Network over Europe","volume":"35","year":"2021","journal-title":"Conserv. Biol."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1080\/0965431042000312424","article-title":"Complexity, Emergence and Cellular Urban Models: Lessons Learned from Applying SLEUTH to Two Portuguese Metropolitan Areas","volume":"13","author":"Silva","year":"2005","journal-title":"Eur. Plan. Stud."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.5198\/jtlu.v7i1.373","article-title":"The Influence of Transport Infrastructures on Land-Use Conversion Decisions within Municipal Plans","volume":"7","author":"Padeiro","year":"2014","journal-title":"JTLU"},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3359","DOI":"10.3390\/su7033359","article-title":"Long-Term Urban Growth and Land Use Efficiency in Southern Europe: Implications for Sustainable Land Management","volume":"7","author":"Zitti","year":"2015","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zambon, I., Serra, P., Pili, S., Bernardini, V., Ferrara, C., and Salvati, L. (2018). A New Approach to Land-Use Structure: Patch Perimeter Metrics as a Spatial Analysis Tool. Sustainability, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/su10072147"}],"container-title":["Sustainability"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2071-1050\/15\/9\/7636\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T19:30:24Z","timestamp":1760124624000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2071-1050\/15\/9\/7636"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,6]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,5]]}},"alternative-id":["su15097636"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/su15097636","relation":{},"ISSN":["2071-1050"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2071-1050","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,6]]}}}