{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,24]],"date-time":"2025-12-24T05:21:30Z","timestamp":1766553690480,"version":"3.48.0"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,22]],"date-time":"2025-12-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1766361600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["42271317"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42271317"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"Innovation Research Team Project of Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province","award":["422CXTD515"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["422CXTD515"]}]},{"name":"Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China","award":["2024AFB321"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024AFB321"]}]},{"name":"Open Funding of State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Monitoring for Heavy Metal Pollutants","award":["KLMHM202423"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["KLMHM202423"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sustainability"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Rising temperatures, extreme precipitation events such as excessive or insufficient rainfall, increasing levels of carbon dioxide, and associated climatic factors will persistently impact crop growth and agricultural production. The warming temperatures have reduced the agricultural crop yields. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the major food crop, which is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. It is very important to accurately evaluate the impacts of climate change on rice growth and rice yield. In this study, the rice growth during 1981\u20132018 (baseline period) and 2041\u20132100 (future period) were separately simulated and compared within the CERES-Rice model (v4.6) using high-quality weather data, soil, and field experimental data at six agro-meteorological stations in Hainan Province. For the climate data of the future period, the SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were applied, with carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects considered. The adaptation strategies such as adjusting planting dates and switching rice cultivars were also assessed. The simulation results indicated that the early rice yields in the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s were projected to decrease by 6.2%, 11.8%, and 20.0% when the CO2 fertilization effect was not considered, compared with the results of the baseline period, respectively, while late rice yields would decline by 9.9%, 23.4%, and 36.3% correspondingly. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, the yields of early rice and late rice in the 2090s increased 16.9% and 6.2%, respectively. Regarding adaptation measures, adjusting planting dates and switching rice cultivars could increase early rice yields by 22.7% and 43.3%, respectively, while increasing late rice yields by 20.2% and 34.2% correspondingly. This study holds substantial scientific importance for elucidating the mechanistic pathways through which climate change influences rice productivity in tropical agro-ecosystems, and provides a critical foundation for formulating evidence-based adaptation strategies to mitigate climate-related risks in a timely manner. Cultivar substitution and temporal shifts in planting dates constituted two adaptation strategies for attenuating the adverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change on rice.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/su18010115","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,22]],"date-time":"2025-12-22T11:43:31Z","timestamp":1766403811000},"page":"115","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modeling Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures on Rice Growth in Hainan, China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"given":"Rongchang","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhai Mingguo Academician Workstation, University of Sanya, Sanya 572000, China"},{"name":"Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0099-0759","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yahui","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China"},{"name":"State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Monitoring for Heavy Metal Pollutants, Changsha 410019, China"}]},{"given":"Jiangwen","family":"Nie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hubei Collaborative Innovation Centre for Grain Industry, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, China"}]},{"given":"Wei","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China"},{"name":"State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Monitoring for Heavy Metal Pollutants, Changsha 410019, China"}]},{"given":"Ruichen","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China"},{"name":"State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Monitoring for Heavy Metal Pollutants, Changsha 410019, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-9831-3971","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bo","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhai Mingguo Academician Workstation, University of Sanya, Sanya 572000, China"},{"name":"Environmental Big Data and Digital Governance Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Hainan Province, Sanya 572022, China"}]},{"given":"Jinhe","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Foreign Language, Beijing Institute of Technology, Zhuhai 519088, China"}]},{"given":"Jing","family":"Geng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhai Mingguo Academician Workstation, University of Sanya, Sanya 572000, China"},{"name":"Environmental Big Data and Digital Governance Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Hainan Province, Sanya 572022, China"}]},{"given":"Wenxiang","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhai Mingguo Academician Workstation, University of Sanya, Sanya 572000, China"},{"name":"Environmental Big Data and Digital Governance Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Hainan Province, Sanya 572022, China"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2496-9521","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ji","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi\u2019an 710061, China"}]},{"given":"W. M. W. W.","family":"Kandegama","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Horticulture and Landscape Gardening, Faculty of Agriculture and Plantation Management, Wayamba University of Sri Lanka, Makandura, Gonawila 60170, Sri Lanka"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8299-324X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mario","family":"Cunha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geosciences, Environment and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Sciences, University of Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre, S\/N, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"875","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-017-0009-5","article-title":"Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend","volume":"7","author":"Huang","year":"2017","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. 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