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To safeguard human health, most countries implement programs focused on the surveillance of toxic phytoplankton abundance and shellfish toxicity levels, an effort that can be complemented by a deeper understanding of the underlying phenomena. In this work, we identify patterns of seasonality in shellfish toxicity across the Portuguese coast and analyse time-lagged correlations between this toxicity and various potential risk factors. We extend the understanding of these relations through the introduction of temporal lags, allowing the analysis of time series at different points in time and the study of the predictive power of the tested variables. This study confirms previous findings about toxicity seasonality patterns on the Portuguese coast and provides further quantitative data about the relations between shellfish toxicity and geographical location, shellfish species, toxic phytoplankton abundances, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, multiple pairs of areas and shellfish species are identified as having correlations high enough to allow for a predictive analysis. These results represent the first step towards understanding the dynamics of DSP toxicity in Portuguese shellfish producing areas, such as temporal and spatial variability, and towards the development of a shellfish safety forecasting system.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/toxins14100679","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,11]],"date-time":"2022-10-11T06:13:27Z","timestamp":1665468807000},"page":"679","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Time-Lagged Correlation Analysis of Shellfish Toxicity Reveals Predictive Links to Adjacent Areas, Species, and Environmental Conditions"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Andr\u00e9","family":"Patr\u00edcio","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"INESC-ID\u2014Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores-Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Desenvolvimento, Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1000-029 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4135-1857","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marta B.","family":"Lopes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NOVA Laboratory for Computer Science and Informatics (NOVA LINCS), FCT NOVA, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal"},{"name":"Center for Mathematics and Applications (NovaMath), FCT NOVA, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6083-470X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro Reis","family":"Costa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"IPMA\u2014Instituto Portugu\u00eas do Mar e da Atmosfera, 1495-006 Lisboa, Portugal"},{"name":"CCMAR\u2014Centro de Ci\u00eancias do Mar, University of Algarve, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal"},{"name":"S2AQUA\u2014Collaborative Laboratory, Association for a Sustainable and Smart Aquaculture, 8700-194 Olh\u00e3o, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7539-488X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rafael S.","family":"Costa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"LAQV-REQUIMTE\u2014Associated Laboratory for Green Chemistry, Department of Chemistry, NOVA School of Science and Technology, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3993-0171","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rui","family":"Henriques","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"INESC-ID\u2014Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores-Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Desenvolvimento, Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1000-029 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1954-5487","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Susana","family":"Vinga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"INESC-ID\u2014Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores-Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Desenvolvimento, Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1000-029 Lisbon, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2469","DOI":"10.1021\/ja00399a082","article-title":"Okadaic acid, a cytotoxic polyether from two marine sponges of the genus Halichondria","volume":"103","author":"Tachibana","year":"1981","journal-title":"J. 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