{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T02:01:11Z","timestamp":1760148071763,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,29]],"date-time":"2023-03-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1680048000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002322","name":"Coordena\u00e7\u00e3o de Aperfei\u00e7oamento de Pessoal de N\u00edvel Superior","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002322","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["TropicalMed"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Studies have shown that climate may affect the distribution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its incidence and fatality rates. Here, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project the climatic suitability of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. We estimated the cumulative incidence, mortality rate, and fatality rate of COVID-19 between 2020 and 2021. Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected to model the climate suitability for COVID-19 cases from diverse climate data, including temperature, precipitation, and humidity. The annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality showed a relatively high contribution to the models, partially explaining the distribution of COVID-19 cases in Brazil based on the climatic suitability of the territory. We observed a high probability of climatic suitability for high incidence in the North and South regions and a high probability of mortality and fatality rates in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Despite the social, viral, and human aspects regulating COVID-19 cases and death distribution, we suggest that climate may play an important role as a co-factor in the spread of cases. In Brazil, there are regions with a high probability that climatic suitability will contribute to the high incidence and fatality rates of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/tropicalmed8040198","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,29]],"date-time":"2023-03-29T01:33:00Z","timestamp":1680053580000},"page":"198","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modeling the Climatic Suitability of COVID-19 Cases in Brazil"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"J\u00e9ssica Milena Moura","family":"Neves","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Biosafety Level 3 Facility, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0183-1175","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Vinicius Silva","family":"Belo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Central-West Dona Lindu Campus, Federal University of S\u00e3o Jo\u00e3o del-Rei, Divinopolis 35501-296, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6974-1128","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cristina Maria Souza","family":"Catita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geographic Engineering, Geophysics and Energy, University of Lisbon, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Beatriz F\u00e1tima Alves","family":"de Oliveira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Regional Office of Piau\u00ed, Fiocruz, Teresina 64001-350, Brazil"}]},{"given":"Marco Aurelio Pereira","family":"Horta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Biosafety Level 3 Facility, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro 21040-900, Brazil"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Johns Hopkins (2021, September 23). 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