{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,19]],"date-time":"2026-01-19T07:29:48Z","timestamp":1768807788518,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":88,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,16]],"date-time":"2021-11-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1637020800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Water"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationships between land use and future scenarios of land changes on water runoff and groundwater storage in an Environmental Protection Area (EPAs) watershed. The methodology was based on the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological modelling to investigate flow simulations in current land use and in two future scenarios (forest and pasture). The performance of goodness-of-fit indicators in the calibration (NSE = 0.82, R2 = 0.85, PBIAS = 11.9% and RSR = 0.42) and validation (NSE = 0.70, R2 = 0.72, PBIAS = \u22124% and RSR = 0.55) was classified as good and very good, respectively. The model accurately reproduced the inter-annual distribution of rainfall. The spatial distribution of average annual surface flow, lateral flow, and groundwater flow were different between sub-basins. The future scenario on land use change to forest (FRSE) and pasture (PAST) differed during the year, with greater changes on rainy and dry seasons. FRSE increase of 64.5% in area led to decreased surface runoff, total runoff, and soil water; and increased lateral flow, groundwater, and evapotranspiration. The effect of the natural vegetation cover on soil moisture content is still unclear. The hydrological model indicated the main areas of optimal spatial water flow. Considering economic values, those areas should encourage the development of government policies based on incentive platforms that can improve environmental soil and water sustainability by establishing payment for environmental services (PES).<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/w13223249","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,17]],"date-time":"2021-11-17T21:32:07Z","timestamp":1637184727000},"page":"3249","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Potential Impacts of Land Use Changes on Water Resources in a Tropical Headwater Catchment"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Magda Stella de Melo","family":"Martins","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Curso de P\u00f3s-Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Agronomia, Programa Ci\u00eancia do Solo, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias Agr\u00e1rias e Veterin\u00e1rias, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"},{"name":"PolUS\u2014Grupo de Pol\u00edtica de Uso do Solo, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"},{"name":"Instituto Federal de Educa\u00e7\u00e3o, Ci\u00eancia e Tecnologia do Tri\u00e2ngulo Mineiro\u2014Campus Uberaba, Rua Jo\u00e3o Batista Ribeiro 4000, Bairro Distrito Industrial II, Uberaba 38064-790, MG, Brazil"}]},{"given":"Carlos Alberto","family":"Valera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Curso de P\u00f3s-Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Agronomia, Programa Ci\u00eancia do Solo, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias Agr\u00e1rias e Veterin\u00e1rias, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"},{"name":"PolUS\u2014Grupo de Pol\u00edtica de Uso do Solo, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"},{"name":"Promotoria de Justi\u00e7a do Minist\u00e9rio P\u00fablico do Estado de Minas Gerais, Uberaba 38000-000, MG, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0124-187X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marcelo","family":"Zanata","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PolUS\u2014Grupo de Pol\u00edtica de Uso do Solo, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"},{"name":"Instituto de Pesquisas Ambientais do Estado de S\u00e3o Paulo, Rodovia C\u00e2ndido Portinari, km 347, Horto Florestal, Batatais 14300-000, SP, Brazil"}]},{"given":"Regina Maria Bessa","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Vera L\u00facia","family":"Abdala","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PolUS\u2014Grupo de Pol\u00edtica de Uso do Solo, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"},{"name":"Instituto Federal de Educa\u00e7\u00e3o, Ci\u00eancia e Tecnologia do Tri\u00e2ngulo Mineiro\u2014Campus Uberaba, Rua Jo\u00e3o Batista Ribeiro 4000, Bairro Distrito Industrial II, Uberaba 38064-790, MG, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2399-5261","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fernando Ant\u00f3nio Leal","family":"Pacheco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PolUS\u2014Grupo de Pol\u00edtica de Uso do Solo, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"},{"name":"Chemistry Research Centre, University of Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9486-7160","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lu\u00eds Filipe Sanches","family":"Fernandes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"PolUS\u2014Grupo de Pol\u00edtica de Uso do Solo, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"},{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes and Alto Douro, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8261-2470","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Teresa Cristina Tarl\u00e9","family":"Pissarra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Curso de P\u00f3s-Gradua\u00e7\u00e3o em Agronomia, Programa Ci\u00eancia do Solo, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias Agr\u00e1rias e Veterin\u00e1rias, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"},{"name":"PolUS\u2014Grupo de Pol\u00edtica de Uso do Solo, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Via de Acesso Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane s\/n, Jaboticabal 14884-900, SP, Brazil"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"256","DOI":"10.1016\/j.proenv.2013.02.036","article-title":"Impact of Land-use Changes on Water Balance","volume":"17","author":"Nugroho","year":"2013","journal-title":"Procedia Environ. 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