{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,9]],"date-time":"2026-03-09T13:01:21Z","timestamp":1773061281429,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,20]],"date-time":"2024-02-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1708387200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Water"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This research examines the intricate changes in the number of occurrences and cumulative rainfall of exceptional events in Portugal spanning 42 hydrological years (from 1981\/1982 to 2022\/2023). The study has two primary objectives: assessing the hydrological spatial dynamics of a region susceptible to climate-induced variations in exceptional rainfall and evaluating the proficiency of a ERA5-Land reanalysis rainfall dataset in capturing exceptional rainfall. Confronting methodological and data-related challenges (e.g., incomplete record series), the investigation uses continuous daily ERA5-Land rainfall series. Validation against the Sistema Nacional de Informa\u00e7\u00e3o de Recursos H\u00eddricos (SNIRH) and the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) ensures the reliability of ERA5-Land data. Empirical non-exceedance probability curves reveal a broad consensus between reanalysis data and observational records, establishing the dataset\u2019s suitability for subsequent analysis. Spatial representations of occurrences, cumulative rainfall, and rainfall intensity of events above thresholds throughout the overall 42-year period and two subperiods (late: 1981\/1982\u20132001\/2002; and recent: 2002\/2003\u20132022\/2023) are presented, illustrating spatial and temporal variations. A noteworthy shift in the spatial distribution of intense events from south to north is observed, emphasising the dynamism of such hydrological processes. The study introduces a novel dimension with a severity heat map, combining some key findings from the occurrences and cumulative rainfall through subperiods. This study significantly contributes to the understanding of hydrological dynamics in Portugal, providing valuable insights for risk management and the development of sustainable strategies tailored to the evolving patterns of exceptional rainfall.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/w16050628","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,20]],"date-time":"2024-02-20T11:50:07Z","timestamp":1708429807000},"page":"628","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Assessing Changes in Exceptional Rainfall in Portugal Using ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data (1981\/1982\u20132022\/2023)"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0059-3953","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luis Angel","family":"Espinosa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Associa\u00e7\u00e3o do Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico para a Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e Desenvolvimento (IST-ID), Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS), Avenida Ant\u00f3nio Jos\u00e9 de Almeida, No. 12, 1000-043 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5221-1139","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria Manuela","family":"Portela","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico (IST), CERIS, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2130-1841","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Salem","family":"Gharbia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Science, Atlantic Technological University (ATU), F91 YW50 Sligo, Ireland"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2279","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-022-01895-7","article-title":"Impact of extreme rainfall events on landslide activity in Portugal under climate change scenarios","volume":"19","author":"Ramos","year":"2022","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"522","DOI":"10.1002\/2014RG000464","article-title":"Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall","volume":"52","author":"Westra","year":"2014","journal-title":"Rev. Geophys."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.3354\/cr00953","article-title":"Changes in precipitation with climate change","volume":"47","author":"Trenberth","year":"2011","journal-title":"Clim. Res."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Letcher, T. (2021). Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet EARTH, Elsevier."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"788","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2017.03.002","article-title":"Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach","volume":"74","author":"Fortes","year":"2017","journal-title":"Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mora, C., and Vieira, G. (2020). Landscapes and Landforms of Portugal, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-03641-0"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1037","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-18-1037-2018","article-title":"Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database","volume":"18","author":"Vaz","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"331","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-5-331-2005","article-title":"Shallow and deep landslides induced by rainfall in the Lisbon region (Portugal): Assessment of relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation","volume":"5","author":"Trigo","year":"2005","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"E1851","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-19-0317.1","article-title":"Challenges to understanding extreme weather changes in lower income countries","volume":"101","author":"Otto","year":"2020","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ummenhofer, C.C., and Meehl, G.A. (2017). Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: A review. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Biol. Sci., 372.","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2016.0135"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"501","DOI":"10.17159\/wsa\/2019.v45.i3.6747","article-title":"Methods for the estimation of extreme rainfall events","volume":"45","author":"Johnson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Water SA"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.3389\/feart.2018.00110","article-title":"Extreme precipitation events in summer in the Iberian Peninsula and its relationship with atmospheric rivers","volume":"6","author":"Ramos","year":"2018","journal-title":"Front. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4349","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-13-4349-2021","article-title":"ERA5-Land: A state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications","volume":"13","author":"Dutra","year":"2021","journal-title":"Earth Syst. Sci. Data"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3152","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.4351","article-title":"An evaluation of ERA5 precipitation for climate monitoring","volume":"148","author":"Lavers","year":"2022","journal-title":"Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106606","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2023.106606","article-title":"Evaluation of ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis precipitation datasets over Spain (1951\u20132020)","volume":"284","author":"Rattayova","year":"2023","journal-title":"Atmos. Res."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4349","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-13-4349-2021","article-title":"ERA5-Land: A new state-of-the-art global land surface reanalysis dataset","volume":"13","author":"Sabater","year":"2017","journal-title":"Earth Syst. Sci. Data"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Espinosa, L.A., Portela, M.M., Moreira Freitas, L.M., and Gharbia, S. (2023). Addressing the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Heatwaves in Portugal with a Validated ERA5-Land Dataset (1980\u20132021). Water, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/w15173102"},{"key":"ref_18","unstructured":"Faulkner, D. (2008). Flood Estimation Handbook: Rainfall Frequency Estimation, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"293","DOI":"10.1115\/1.4010337","article-title":"A Statistical Distribution Function of Wide Applicability","volume":"18","author":"Weibull","year":"1951","journal-title":"J. Appl. Mech."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"460","DOI":"10.1080\/03610920701653094","article-title":"Bringing closure to the plotting position controversy","volume":"37","author":"Makkonen","year":"2008","journal-title":"Commun. Stat.\u2014Theory Methods"},{"key":"ref_21","unstructured":"Jones, M. (2012). Characterising and Modelling Time-Varying Rainfall Extremes and Their Climatic Drivers. [Ph.D. Thesis, Newcastle University]."},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"Te Chow, V., Maidment, D.R., and Mays, L.W. (1988). Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Student (1908). The probable error of a mean. Biometrika, 6, 1\u201325.","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/6.1.1"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"540","DOI":"10.4097\/kjae.2015.68.6.540","article-title":"T test as a parametric statistic","volume":"68","author":"Kim","year":"2015","journal-title":"Korean J. Anesthesiol."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1002\/wcc.380","article-title":"Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events","volume":"7","author":"Stott","year":"2016","journal-title":"Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Chang."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1139","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-23-1139-2023","article-title":"Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: A case study in the Ganjiang River basin","volume":"23","author":"Liu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Jones, R., Boer, R., Magezi, S., and Mearns, L. (2004). Adaptation Policy Framework for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures, UNDP, Cambridge University Press."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, S., Connors, C., P\u00e9an, S., Berger, N., Caud, Y., Chen, L., Goldfarb, M., and Scheel Monteiro, P.M. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC."},{"key":"ref_29","first-page":"26","article-title":"Use of ERA5 reanalysis to initialise re-forecasts proves beneficial","volume":"161","author":"Vitart","year":"2009","journal-title":"ECMWF Newsl."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127353","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2021.127353","article-title":"Do ERA5 and ERA5-land precipitation estimates outperform satellite-based precipitation products? A comprehensive comparison between state-of-the-art model-based and satellite-based precipitation products over mainland China","volume":"605","author":"Xu","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101121","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejrh.2022.101121","article-title":"Assessment of the capability of modern reanalyses to simulate precipitation in warm months using adjusted radar precipitation","volume":"42","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"807","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM-D-21-0195.1","article-title":"Validation of precipitation events in ERA5 to gauge observations during warm seasons over eastern China","volume":"23","author":"Wu","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Hydrometeorol."},{"key":"ref_33","first-page":"1","article-title":"Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia","volume":"2022","author":"Alexopoulos","year":"2022","journal-title":"EGUsphere"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2020GL089624","DOI":"10.1029\/2020GL089624","article-title":"Evaluation of daily precipitation extremes in reanalysis and gridded observation-based data sets over Germany","volume":"47","author":"Hu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"270","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9388.1992.tb00046.x","article-title":"The United Nations framework convention on climate change","volume":"1","author":"Sands","year":"1992","journal-title":"Rev. Eur. Comp. Int. Environ. Law"},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"M\u00f3nica, S., and Santos, F. (2011). Geophysical Research Abstracts, EGU."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Portela, M.M., Espinosa, L.A., and Zelenakova, M. (2020). Long-term rainfall trends and their variability in mainland Portugal in the last 106 years. Climate, 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/cli8120146"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100585","DOI":"10.1016\/j.wace.2023.100585","article-title":"A gauge-based sub-daily extreme rainfall climatology for western Europe","volume":"41","author":"Whitford","year":"2023","journal-title":"Weather. Clim. Extrem."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"128","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2017.06.020","article-title":"Regionalization and susceptibility assessment to daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal","volume":"86","author":"Santos","year":"2017","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Espinosa, L.A., Portela, M.M., Matos, J.P., and Gharbia, S. (2022). Climate Change Trends in a European Coastal Metropolitan Area: Rainfall, Temperature, and Extreme Events (1864\u20132021). Atmosphere, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/atmos13121995"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13768","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-70816-2","article-title":"Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability","volume":"10","author":"Tabari","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e981","DOI":"10.1002\/asl.981","article-title":"Extreme precipitation events are becoming less frequent but more intense over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Are shifting weather regimes the cause?","volume":"21","author":"Luong","year":"2020","journal-title":"Atmos. Sci. Lett."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1007\/s00704-013-1079-6","article-title":"Trends and correlations in annual extreme precipitation indices for mainland Portugal, 1941\u20132007","volume":"119","author":"Santo","year":"2015","journal-title":"Theor. Appl. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1305","DOI":"10.1007\/s00704-018-2667-2","article-title":"Recent and future changes of precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal","volume":"137","author":"Santos","year":"2019","journal-title":"Theor. Appl. Climatol."},{"key":"ref_45","unstructured":"Schleussner, C., Menke, I., Theokritoff, E., van Maanen, N., and Lanson, A. (2020). Climate Impacts in Portugal, Climate Analytics."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"784","DOI":"10.1007\/s11442-015-1202-y","article-title":"Precipitation variability in Portugal from 1960 to 2011","volume":"25","author":"Nunes","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Sci."}],"container-title":["Water"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4441\/16\/5\/628\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T14:01:48Z","timestamp":1760104908000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4441\/16\/5\/628"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,20]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,3]]}},"alternative-id":["w16050628"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/w16050628","relation":{},"ISSN":["2073-4441"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2073-4441","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,20]]}}}