{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,21]],"date-time":"2026-04-21T02:19:38Z","timestamp":1776737978609,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"21","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,2]],"date-time":"2024-11-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1730505600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"FCT\u2014Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P.","award":["UIDB\/04683\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDB\/04683\/2020"]}]},{"name":"FCT\u2014Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P.","award":["UIDP\/04683\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UIDP\/04683\/2020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Water"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Water scarcity is a global issue, especially in semi-arid and arid regions where precipitation is irregularly distributed over time and space. Predicting groundwater flow in heterogeneous karst terrains, which are essential water sources, presents a significant challenge. This article integrates geology, hydrology, and water monitoring to develop a pioneering conceptual and numerical model of groundwater flow in the Montes Claros Region (Vieira River Watershed, Brazil). This model was evaluated under various climate change scenarios, considering changes in rainfall, groundwater consumption, and population growth over the current century. The results indicate that a decline in water table levels is inevitable, primarily driven by population growth and high pumping rates rather than rainfall fluctuations. This underscores the urgent need for improved monitoring, model upgrading, and more importantly, targeted water resource management for Montes Claros.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/w16213140","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,4]],"date-time":"2024-11-04T05:41:23Z","timestamp":1730698883000},"page":"3140","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Groundwater Model for Karst and Pelitic Aquifer Systems from a Semi-Arid Region Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in the Vieira River Watershed, Brazil"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Apolo","family":"Pedrosa Bhering","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Earth Sciences, Pole of University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3456-5926","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Isabel Margarida Horta Ribeiro","family":"Antunes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Earth Sciences, Pole of University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Gustavo","family":"Nascimento Cat\u00e3o","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Walm Engenharia e Tecnologia Ambiental, S\u00e3o Paulo 05017-000, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3476-8558","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eduardo Antonio","family":"Gomes Marques","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Civil Engineering Department, Universidade Federal de Vi\u00e7osa, Vi\u00e7osa 36570-900, Brazil"}]},{"given":"Rodrigo Sergio","family":"de Paula","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geosciences Institute, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte 31270-901, Brazil"}]},{"given":"Isabella","family":"Brito Andrade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geosciences Institute, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte 31270-901, Brazil"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0305-0604","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Giovana","family":"Rebelo Di\u00f3rio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory on Basin Analysis, Universidade Federal do Paran\u00e1, Curitiba 81532-980, Brazil"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"280","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2012.06.015","article-title":"Current research in urban hydrogeology\u2014A review","volume":"51","author":"Schirmer","year":"2013","journal-title":"Adv. Water Resour."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"161964","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2023.161964","article-title":"Assessment of vulnerability to water shortage in semi-arid river basins: The value of demand reduction and storage capacity","volume":"871","author":"Gharib","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci. Total. Environ."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liu, Z., Zhou, J., Yang, X., Zhao, Z., and Lv, Y. (2024). Research on Water Resource Modeling Based on Machine Learning Technologies. Water, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/w16030472"},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"81","article-title":"Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Water Availability Indicators in a Semi-arid Region of Central Mexico","volume":"54","author":"Hiscock","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Pol."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejrh.2015.11.011","article-title":"Delineating groundwater\/surface water interaction in a karst watershed: Lower Flint River Basin, southwestern Georgia, USA","volume":"5","author":"Rugel","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2014.12.042","article-title":"Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions","volume":"522","author":"Kahil","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Li, P., and Wu, J. (2024). Water Resources and Sustainable Development. Water, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/books978-3-0365-9973-1"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ford, D., and Williams, P. (2007). Karst Hydrogeology and Geomorphology, John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118684986"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gsd.2018.10.004","article-title":"Assessment of groundwater quality and remediation in karst aquifers: A review","volume":"8","author":"Kalhor","year":"2019","journal-title":"Groundw. Sustain. Dev."},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"Auler, A.S. (1999). Karst Evolution and Palaeoclimate of Eastern Brazil. [Ph.D. Thesis, University of Bristol]."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1694(03)00037-4","article-title":"Modelling unsaturated flow in an evolving karst aquifer","volume":"276","author":"Kaufmann","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"148","DOI":"10.1007\/s10040-004-0402-9","article-title":"Karst groundwater: A challenge for new resources","volume":"13","author":"Bakalowicz","year":"2005","journal-title":"Hydrog. J."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1590\/0001-3765201520140400","article-title":"Geologic conceptual model of the municipality of Sete Lagoas (MG, Brazil) and the surroundings","volume":"88","author":"Hirata","year":"2016","journal-title":"Anais Acad. Bras. Ci\u00ean."},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"(2023, April 26). Hidrogeologia dos Ambientes C\u00e1rsticos da Bacia do Rio S\u00e3o Francisco para a gest\u00e3o de recursos h\u00eddricos, Ag\u00eancia Nacional de \u00c1guas (ANA), Available online: https:\/\/metadados.snirh.gov.br\/geonetwork\/srv\/por\/catalog.search#\/metadata\/11828587-8176-4eb9-a367-0e4cdf9b2e3d."},{"key":"ref_15","unstructured":"Projeto \u00c1guas do Norte de Minas\u2014PANM: Estudo da Disponibilidade H\u00eddrica Subterr\u00e2nea do Norte de Minas Gerais (2024, September 05). Servi\u00e7o Geol\u00f3gico do Brasil (CPRM), Available online: https:\/\/www.sgb.gov.br\/panm."},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"119","article-title":"Aspectos Hidrodin\u00e2micos e Qualidade Das \u00c1guas Subterr\u00e2neas Do Aqu\u00edfero Bambu\u00ed No Norte de Minas Gerais","volume":"19","author":"Souza","year":"2014","journal-title":"Rev. Bras. Recur. H\u00eddricos"},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Muniz, G.L., Oliveira, A.L.G., Benedito, M.G., Cano, N.D., Camargo, A.P.d., and Silva, A.J.d. (2023). Risk Evaluation of Chemical Clogging of Irrigation Emitters via Geostatistics and Multivariate Analysis in the Northern Region of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Water, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/w15040790"},{"key":"ref_18","unstructured":"Leite, M.E. (2006). Geoprocessamento aplicado ao estudo do espa\u00e7o urbano: O caso da cidade de Montes Claros\/MG. [Master\u2019s Thesis, Universidade Federal de Uberl\u00e2ndia]. unpublished."},{"key":"ref_19","first-page":"779","article-title":"Mudan\u00e7a de Uso do Solo na Bacia do Rio Vieira, em Montes Claros\/MG","volume":"4","author":"Leite","year":"2011","journal-title":"Ver. Bras. Geogr. F\u00eds."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bhering, A.P., Antunes, I.M.H.R., Marques, E.A.G., de Paula, R.S., and Silva, A.R.N. (2023). Hydrogeology of Karst and Metapelitic Domains of the Semi-Arid Vieira River Watershed (Brazil)\u2014A Contribution to Groundwater Resource Management. Water, 15.","DOI":"10.3390\/w15112066"},{"key":"ref_21","first-page":"349","article-title":"O Cr\u00e1ton do S\u00e3o Francisco","volume":"7","author":"Almeida","year":"1977","journal-title":"Ver. Bras. Geoc."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1016\/j.marpetgeo.2011.08.011","article-title":"Proterozoic first-order sedimentary sequences of the S\u00e3o Francisco craton, eastern Brazil","volume":"33","author":"Alkmim","year":"2012","journal-title":"Mar. Pet. Geol."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chemgeo.2018.02.007","article-title":"Multiproxy geochemical and isotope stratigraphy records of a Neoproterozoic Oxygenation Event in the Ediacaran Sete Lagoas cap carbonate, Bambu\u00ed Group, Brazil","volume":"481","author":"Caxito","year":"2018","journal-title":"Chem. Geol."},{"key":"ref_24","first-page":"343","article-title":"Tectono-sedimentary evolution of sedimentary basins from Late Paleoproterozoic to Late Neoproterozoic in the S\u00e3o Francisco craton and Ara\u00e7ua\u00ed fold belt, eastern Brazil","volume":"141\u2013142","author":"Lima","year":"2001","journal-title":"Sediment. Geol."},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"Dardenne, M.A. (, January November). S\u00edntese sobre a estratigrafia do Grupo Bambu\u00ed no Brasil Central. Proceedings of the 30th Congresso Brasileiro de Geologia, Recife, Brazil. Available online: https:\/\/www.sbgeo.org.br\/home\/pages\/33."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"(2023, April 27). Projeto Norte de Minas. Available online: http:\/\/www.portalgeologia.com.br\/index.php\/mapa\/."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"(2020, July 01). Sistema de Informa\u00e7\u00f5es de \u00c1guas Subterr\u00e2neas (SIAGAS), Brazilian Geological Survey (CPRM), Available online: https:\/\/siagasweb.sgb.gov.br\/layout\/."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Chaves, M.L.S., and Andrade, K.W. (2023, April 27). Folha Cora\u00e7\u00e3o de Jesus 1:100.000. Projeto Norte de Minas, Belo Horizonte, Programa Mapeamento Geol\u00f3gico do Estado de Minas Gerais, Conv\u00eanio CPRM-IGC\/UFMG. Available online: http:\/\/www.portalgeologia.com.br\/index.php\/mapa\/."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Chaves, M.L.S., and Andrade, K.W. (2023, April 27). Folha Montes Claros 1:100.000. Bras\u00edlia, Programa Geologia do Brasil, Conv\u00eanio CPRM-IGC\/UFMG, Available online: https:\/\/geosgb.sgb.gov.br\/."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111756","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envres.2021.111756","article-title":"Geological and Hydrogeological review of a semi-arid region with conflicts to water availability (Southeastern Brazil)","volume":"202","author":"Bhering","year":"2021","journal-title":"Environ. Res."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.29396\/jgsb.2022.v5.n1.3","article-title":"Neoproterozoic-Cambrian structures as a guide to the evolution of the Bambui Karst in the Vieira river basin, Montes Claros, North of Minas Gerais, Brazil","volume":"5","author":"Cavalcanti","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Geol. Surv. Braz."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"(2020, January 31). Cadastro Nacional de Informa\u00e7\u00f5es Espeleol\u00f3gicas (CANIE) do Centro Nacional de Pesquisa e Conserva\u00e7\u00e3o de Cavernas (CECAV), Available online: http:\/\/www.icmbio.gov.br\/cecav\/canie.html."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"(2024, October 02). TOPODATA\u2014Banco de dados geomorfom\u00e9tricos do Brasil. Available online: http:\/\/www.dsr.inpe.br\/topodata\/."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Diersch, H.-J.G. (2014). FEFLOW: Finite Element Modeling of Flow, Mass and Heat Transport in Porous and Fractured Media, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-38739-5"},{"key":"ref_35","unstructured":"Paula, R.S.d. (2019). Modelo Conceitual de Fluxo dos Aqu\u00edferos Pel\u00edticos-Carbon\u00e1ticos da Regi\u00e3o da APA Carste de Lagoa Santa, MG. [PhD. Thesis, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais]."},{"key":"ref_36","first-page":"13","article-title":"A brief history of karst hydrogeology: Contributions of the NSS","volume":"69","author":"White","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. Cave Karst Stud."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1694(03)00064-7","article-title":"Can we simulate regional groundwater flow in a karst system using equivalent porous media models? Case study, Barton Springs Edwards aquifer, USA","volume":"276","author":"Scanlon","year":"2003","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_38","first-page":"66","article-title":"Modelagem Num\u00e9rica de Fluxo de um Aqu\u00edfero C\u00e1rstico-Fissural da bacia do Riacho Boi Morto no Munic\u00edpio de S\u00e3o Francisco, Minas Gerais","volume":"27","author":"Paula","year":"2013","journal-title":"Rev. \u00c1guas Subterr\u00e2neas"},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"856","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-6584.1991.tb00572.x","article-title":"Assessing transmissivity from specific capacity in a large and heterogeneous alluvial aquifer","volume":"29","author":"Razack","year":"1991","journal-title":"Groundwater"},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"Pena, M.A.C., Vel\u00e1squez, L.N.M., Teixeira, G.M., Silva, P.H.P.d., Amaral, D.G.P., and Paula, R.S.d. (2021). An\u00e1lise de lineamentos e sua rela\u00e7\u00e3o com a capacidade espec\u00edfica de po\u00e7os na APA Carste de Lagoa Santa, MG. \u00c1guas Subterr\u00e2neas, Available online: https:\/\/aguassubterraneas.abas.org\/asubterraneas\/article\/view\/29816."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"911","DOI":"10.1007\/s10040-008-0274-5","article-title":"Methodology for groundwater recharge assessment in carbonate aquifers: Application to pilot sites in southern Spain","volume":"16","author":"Andreo","year":"2008","journal-title":"Hydrog. J."},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"Mar\u00edn, A.I. (2009). Los sistemas de informaci\u00f3n geogr\u00e1fica aplicados a la evaluaci\u00f3n de recursos h\u00eddricos y a la vulnerabilidad a la contaminaci\u00f3n de acu\u00edferos carbonatados. Caso de la Alta Cadena (Provincia de M\u00e1laga). [Bachelor\u2019s Thesis, University of Malaga]."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"218","DOI":"10.1002\/2013RG000443","article-title":"Karst water resources in a changing world: Review of hydrological modeling approaches","volume":"52","author":"Hartmann","year":"2014","journal-title":"Rev. Geophys."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Andreo, B., Carrasco, F., Dur\u00e1n, J., and LaMoreaux, J. (2010). Sensitivity Analysis of APLIS Method to Compute Spatial Variability of Karst Aquifers Recharge at the National Park of Vi\u00f1ales (Cuba). Advances in Research in Karst Media, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-12486-0"},{"key":"ref_45","first-page":"83","article-title":"Comparison of the APLIS and Modified-APLIS Methods to Estimate the Recharge in Fractured Karst Aquifer, Amazonas, Peru","volume":"Volume 1","author":"Andreo","year":"2015","journal-title":"Hydrogeological and Environmental Investigations in Karst Systems"},{"key":"ref_46","unstructured":"(2024, September 20). Instituto Mineiro de Gest\u00e3o das \u00c1guas, Available online: http:\/\/www.igam.mg.gov.br\/."},{"key":"ref_47","unstructured":"(2024, September 20). Mapa de Solos do Estado de Minas Gerais (1:650.000). Available online: https:\/\/dps.ufv.br\/softwares\/."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e14971","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.14971","article-title":"Evaluation of recharge estimation methods applied to fissure and karst aquifers of the Lagoa Santa Karst Environmental Protection Area, Brazil","volume":"37","author":"Teixeira","year":"2023","journal-title":"Hydrol. Process."},{"key":"ref_49","unstructured":"Anderson, M.P., Woessner, W.W., and Hunt, R.J. (2015). Applied Groundwater Modeling: Simulation of Flow and Advective Transport, Elsevier. [2nd ed.]."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"417","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2005.12.021","article-title":"Integrated modelling of climate, water, soil, agricultural and socio-economic processes: A general introduction of the methodology and some exemplary results from the semi-arid north-east of Brazil","volume":"328","author":"Krol","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2012.02.036","article-title":"Impact of a possible climate and land use changes in the semi arid regions: A case study from North Eastern Brazil","volume":"434","author":"Montenegro","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"132","DOI":"10.11606\/rdg.v31i0.114843","article-title":"Tend\u00eancia do clima do semi\u00e1rido frente as perspectivas das mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas globais; o caso de Araripina, Pernambuco","volume":"31","author":"Lacerda","year":"2016","journal-title":"Rev. Dep. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104056","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/abb051","article-title":"Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: Historical performance and future changes","volume":"15","author":"Fan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dantas, L.G., dos Santos, C.A.C., Santos, C.A.G., Martins, E.S.P.R., and Alves, L.M. (2022). Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over Northeastern Brazil by CMIP6 Model. Water, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/w14244118"},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"135","DOI":"10.1016\/S0013-7952(97)81918-7","article-title":"Strategic ground water management for the reduction of karst land collapse hazard in Tangshan, China","volume":"48","author":"Wang","year":"2007","journal-title":"Eng. Geol."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1694(02)00062-8","article-title":"Development of collapse sinkholes in areas of groundwater discharge","volume":"264","author":"Salvati","year":"2002","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_57","unstructured":"Galv\u00e3o, P.H.F. (2015). Hydrogeological Conceptual Model of Sete Lagoas (MG) and Associated Implications of Urban Development in Karst Region. [Ph.D. Thesis, Universidade de S\u00e3o Paulo]."}],"container-title":["Water"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4441\/16\/21\/3140\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T16:27:20Z","timestamp":1760113640000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-4441\/16\/21\/3140"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,2]]},"references-count":57,"journal-issue":{"issue":"21","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]}},"alternative-id":["w16213140"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/w16213140","relation":{},"ISSN":["2073-4441"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2073-4441","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,2]]}}}