{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,10]],"date-time":"2026-02-10T03:57:11Z","timestamp":1770695831247,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":71,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,7]],"date-time":"2026-02-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770422400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"FCT\u2014Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["UID\/04033\/2025"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["UID\/04033\/2025"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["LA\/P\/0126\/2020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LA\/P\/0126\/2020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Water"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Climate change impacts on the Sado River (southwest Portugal) flow rates (FRs) were assessed for the first time under the 2041\u20132060 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 1\u20132.6 W\/m2 (SSP1-2.6), 3\u20137.0 W\/m2 (SSP3-7.0), and 5\u20138.5 W\/m2 (SSP5-8.5), using bias-adjusted and downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble projections from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b-Sado). ISIMIP3b-Sado was used to estimate future precipitation and temperature changes, and as input for Hydrological Simulation Program\u2014FORTRAN (HSPF) simulations. The HSPF projected decreases in the Sado FRs, mainly under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, due to temperature increases and autumn\/spring precipitation decreases. The FR decreases may lead to 29%\/33% reductions in yearly accumulated riverine water volume under SSP3-7.0\/SSP5-8.5 and a 31% summertime riverine water deficit increase under SSP3-7.0. Surface-water demand fulfilment in the Sado Basin could suffer a 22-day delay, and the wintertime precipitation range is projected to increase. Hence, in the near-future, summertime surface-water needs and reservoir recharge in the Sado Basin could become more dependent on wintertime precipitation. With Sado being an agricultural region, our results should prompt agriculture stakeholders and decision makers to improve wintertime surface water storage and management to sustain summertime crop irrigation needs.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/w18040442","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,9]],"date-time":"2026-02-09T10:45:31Z","timestamp":1770633931000},"page":"442","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Near-Future Climate Change Impacts on Sado River (Southern Portugal) Flow Rates Using CMIP6-HSPF Modelling"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6683-0141","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andr\u00e9 M.","family":"Claro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"},{"name":"Institute for Innovation, Capacity Building and Sustainability of Agri-Food Production (Inov4Agro), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6792-8047","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andr\u00e9 R.","family":"Fonseca","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"},{"name":"Institute for Innovation, Capacity Building and Sustainability of Agri-Food Production (Inov4Agro), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6124-1578","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ant\u00f3nio","family":"Fernandes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"},{"name":"Institute for Innovation, Capacity Building and Sustainability of Agri-Food Production (Inov4Agro), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5127-1554","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christoph","family":"Menz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany"},{"name":"Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3263-9143","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carina","family":"Almeida","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BIORG\u2014Bioengineering and Sustainability Research Group, Faculty of Engineering, Lus\u00f3fona University, 1749-024 Lisbon, Portugal"},{"name":"LEAF\u2014Linking Landscape, Environment, Agriculture and Food, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7946-8786","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Helder","family":"Fraga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"},{"name":"Institute for Innovation, Capacity Building and Sustainability of Agri-Food Production (Inov4Agro), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8135-5078","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jo\u00e3o A.","family":"Santos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), University of Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"},{"name":"Institute for Innovation, Capacity Building and Sustainability of Agri-Food Production (Inov4Agro), 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"(2025, August 16). 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