{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T05:17:11Z","timestamp":1787030231775,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Royal College of General Practitioners","issue":"740","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,2,12]],"date-time":"2019-02-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1549929600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Br J Gen Pract"],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,19]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>UK cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality have declined in recent decades but socioeconomic inequalities persist.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aim<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To present a new CVD model, and project health outcomes and the impact of guideline-recommended statin treatment across quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation in the UK.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Design and setting<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A lifetime microsimulation model was developed using 117 896 participants in 16 statin trials, 501 854 UK Biobank (UKB) participants, and quality-of-life data from national health surveys.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Method<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A CVD microsimulation model was developed using risk equations for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularisation, cancer, and vascular and non-vascular death, estimated using trial data. The authors calibrated and further developed this model in the UKB cohort, including further characteristics and a diabetes risk equation, and validated the model in UKB and Whitehall II cohorts. The model was used to predict CVD incidence, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the impact of UK guideline-recommended statin treatment across socioeconomic deprivation quintiles.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Age, sex, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were key CVD risk determinants. Model-predicted event rates corresponded well to observed rates across participant categories. The model projected strong gradients in remaining life expectancy, with 4\u20135-year (5\u20138 QALYs) gaps between the least and most socioeconomically deprived quintiles. Guideline-recommended statin treatment was projected to increase QALYs, with larger gains in quintiles of higher deprivation.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The study demonstrated the potential of guideline-recommended statin treatment to reduce socioeconomic inequalities. This CVD model is a novel resource for individualised long-term projections of health outcomes of CVD treatments.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3399\/bjgp.2023.0198","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,27]],"date-time":"2023-09-27T05:00:29Z","timestamp":1695790829000},"page":"e189-e198","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Long-term cardiovascular risks and the impact of statin treatment on socioeconomic inequalities: a microsimulation 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