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The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The \u2018predictAL-10\u2019 risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C*Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the \u2018predictAL-9\u2019), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The predictAL-10\/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3399\/bjgp17x690245","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,3,30]],"date-time":"2017-03-30T23:46:21Z","timestamp":1490917581000},"page":"e280-e292","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm"],"prefix":"10.3399","volume":"67","author":[{"given":"Juan \u00c1ngel","family":"Bell\u00f3n","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Juan","family":"de Dios Luna","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"King","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Irwin","family":"Nazareth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Emma","family":"Motrico","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mar\u00eda Josefa","family":"GildeG\u00f3mez-Barrag\u00e1n","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Francisco","family":"Torres-Gonz\u00e1lez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Carmen","family":"Mont\u00f3n-Franco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Marta","family":"S\u00e1nchez-Celaya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Miguel \u00c1ngel","family":"D\u00edaz-Barreiros","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Catalina","family":"Vicens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Patricia","family":"Moreno-Peral","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1987","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,3,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"2020081209301155000_67.657.e280.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)61766-8"},{"key":"2020081209301155000_67.657.e280.2","unstructured":"World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe (2012) Alcohol in the European Union: consumption, harm and policy approaches (WHO, Copenhagen)."},{"key":"2020081209301155000_67.657.e280.3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1360-0443.2010.03326.x"},{"key":"2020081209301155000_67.657.e280.4","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2012) Global status report on alcohol and health \u2014 2014 (WHO, Geneva)."},{"key":"2020081209301155000_67.657.e280.5","unstructured":"Ministry of Health (2007) Clinical Commission of the Government Delegation for the National Drug Plan: Report on Alcohol, 2007, [In Spanish]. 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