{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T04:33:06Z","timestamp":1772253186945,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Sociedade Brasileira de Cardiologia","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,1]],"date-time":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735689600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,1]],"date-time":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735689600000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,1]],"date-time":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735689600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Arq. Bras. Cardiol."],"abstract":"<jats:p>Resumo  Fundamento  As doen\u00e7as cardiovasculares ateroscler\u00f3ticas \u2014 especialmente a doen\u00e7a isqu\u00eamica do cora\u00e7\u00e3o (DIC), o acidente vascular cerebral (AVC) e a doen\u00e7a arterial perif\u00e9rica (DAP) \u2014 s\u00e3o a principal causa de mortalidade cardiovascular no Brasil.  Objetivos  Projetar as tend\u00eancias de mortalidade por DIC, AVC e DAP no Brasil at\u00e9 2040.  M\u00e9todos  As contagens anuais de \u00f3bitos (1990-2021) por DIC, AVC e DAP entre indiv\u00edduos de 40 a 79 anos foram obtidas a partir do estudo Carga Global de Doen\u00e7as (Global Burden of Disease, GBD) de 2021. Utilizaram-se estimativas populacionais de meio de ano tanto para o per\u00edodo observado (1990-2021) quanto para o projetado (2022-2040). Foram calculadas as taxas de mortalidade brutas e padronizadas por idade. Modelos bayesianos idade-per\u00edodo-coorte foram aplicados para projetar as taxas de mortalidade de 2022 a 2040. Foram computadas as varia\u00e7\u00f5es percentuais relativas e as estimativas anuais de varia\u00e7\u00e3o percentual (EAVPs). As proje\u00e7\u00f5es (por 100.000 habitantes) s\u00e3o apresentadas como medianas com intervalos de incerteza (IIs) de 95%, e as EAVPs incluem intervalos de confian\u00e7a (ICs) de 95% derivados por bootstrap.  Resultados  Entre 1990 e 2040, estima-se que a popula\u00e7\u00e3o brasileira de 40 a 79 anos aumente em 237,82%. A taxa de mortalidade padronizada por idade para DIC dever\u00e1 apresentar uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o de 14,16% [de 118,61 em 2021 para 101,82 em 2040 (II 95%, 0,36-203,27)] (EAVP: -0,83% [IC 95%, -0,84 a -0,83]); e, para AVC, uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o de 17,36% [de 84,58 para 69,90 (II 95%, 0-152,48)] (EAVP: -1,07% [IC 95%, -1,10 a -1,04]). Em contraste, projeta-se que a mortalidade por DAP aumente em 10,99% [de 1,82 para 2,02 (II 95%, 0-5,03)] (EAVP: 0,45% [IC 95%, 0,30-0,59]). Adicionalmente, as taxas de mortalidade padronizadas por idade, espec\u00edficas por sexo, mostraram varia\u00e7\u00f5es consider\u00e1veis. Para a DIC, projeta-se uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o de 25,31% entre homens (EAVP, -1,56% [IC 95%, -1,57 a -1,55]), enquanto entre mulheres dever\u00e1 haver um aumento de 4,12% (EAVP: 0,14% [IC 95%, 0,13-0,16]). A mortalidade por AVC dever\u00e1 reduzir em 30,00% entre homens (EAVP, -1,94% [IC 95%: -1,96 a -1,91]) e em 4,52% entre mulheres (EAVP: -0,33% [IC 95%, -0,37 a -0,29]). Em contrapartida, a mortalidade por DAP dever\u00e1 crescer 14,64% entre homens (EAVP, 0,55% [IC 95%: 0,38-0,71]) e 21,92% entre mulheres (EAVP: 0,91% [IC 95%: 0,78-1,02]).  Conclus\u00e3o  Embora se preveja redu\u00e7\u00e3o nas taxas de mortalidade por DIC e AVC, espera-se um aumento na mortalidade por DAP \u2014 especialmente entre as mulheres \u2014, o que evidencia a necessidade urgente de interven\u00e7\u00f5es em sa\u00fade p\u00fablica espec\u00edficas por sexo e por tipo de doen\u00e7a.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.36660\/abc.20250189","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,20]],"date-time":"2026-01-20T15:35:08Z","timestamp":1768923308000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Proje\u00e7\u00f5es de Mortalidade por Doen\u00e7a Isqu\u00eamica do Cora\u00e7\u00e3o, Acidente Vascular Cerebral e Doen\u00e7a Arterial Perif\u00e9rica no Brasil at\u00e9 2040: Uma Abordagem de Modelagem Bayesiana"],"prefix":"10.36660","volume":"122","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5116-5062","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro Rafael Vieira de Oliveira","family":"Salerno","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. 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Brasil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8122-6647","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luis Augusto Palma","family":"Dallan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Hospitals of Cleveland,  EUA; Universidade de S\u00e3o Paulo,  Brasil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-4241-0656","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro Rafael","family":"Salerno","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidade Cat\u00f3lica de Pernambuco,  Brasil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sadeer","family":"Al-Kindi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Health and Nature Houston Methodist,  EUA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fanny","family":"Petermann-Rocha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Universidad Diego Portales,  Chile"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Salil V.","family":"Deo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Case Western Reserve University,  EUA; Louis Stokes VA Medical Center,  EUA; University of Glasgow,  Inglaterra"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"22636","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025]]},"reference":[{"issue":"5","key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"328","DOI":"10.1016\/j.arcmed.2015.06.006","article-title":"Global Overview of the Epidemiology of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease","volume":"46","author":"Barquera S","year":"2015","journal-title":"Arch Med Res"},{"issue":"10","key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1553","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(23)00355-8","article-title":"Global Burden of Peripheral Artery Disease and Its Risk Factors, 1990-2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 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