{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,18]],"date-time":"2026-01-18T02:02:59Z","timestamp":1768701779016,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"Vilnius Gediminas Technical University","issue":"5","funder":[{"name":"\u00d6BB-Infrastruktur Bau AG"},{"name":"COST TU 1406 Action"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.vgtu.lt"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,24]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Due to a considerable amount of information required to support the decision-making processes, an increasing number of infrastructure owners use computerized management systems. Bridges, being complex and having significant impact on society, have often been the foundation for the development of these systems. In order to manage bridges effectively, condition prediction models are incorporated to the core of decision-making processes. Many of developed and applied stochastic prediction models show certain limitations. The impact of these limitations on deterioration pre\u00addictions cannot be objectively evaluated without direct comparison of prediction results. Hence, several stochastic pre\u00addiction models based on condition ratings obtained from visual inspections of bridge decks are compared in this article. Models are described and implemented on the data of around 1100 reinforced concrete bridge decks from the \u2018Infraes\u00adtruturas de Portugal\u2019, a state owned Portuguese general concessionaire for roadways and railways. The statistical analy\u00adsis of different models revealed significant deviations, particularly in higher condition ratings. Results indicate limited prediction capability of a simple homogeneous Markov chain model when compared with time- and space-continuous models, such as the gamma process model.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3846\/13923730.2017.1323795","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,25]],"date-time":"2017-05-25T06:55:03Z","timestamp":1495695303000},"page":"553-561","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3846\/jcem_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":43,"title":["Comparison of stochastic prediction models based on visual inspections of bridge decks"],"prefix":"10.3846","volume":"23","author":[{"given":"Ivan","family":"ZAMBON","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences"}]},{"given":"Anja","family":"VIDOVIC","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences"}]},{"given":"Alfred","family":"STRAUSS","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences"}]},{"given":"Jose","family":"MATOS","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Minho University"}]},{"given":"Joao","family":"AMADO","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Asset Management of Infraestruturas de Portugal, S.A., Esta\u00e7\u00e3o de Sta. Apol\u00f3nia, Sala 249, 1100-105 Lisbon, Portugal"}]}],"member":"2209","reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"CIT0001","first-page":"153","volume":"24","author":"Abdel-Hameed","year":"1975","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Reliability"},{"key":"CIT0002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0000123"},{"key":"CIT0003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physrep.2010.11.002"},{"key":"CIT0006","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2143\/AST.21.2.2005362"},{"key":"CIT0007","volume-title":"Markov processes and assessment of condition of bridges","author":"Feretic S.","year":"2014"},{"key":"CIT0008","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aoms\/1177692395"},{"key":"CIT0009","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/pse.180"},{"key":"CIT0011","volume-title":"Benchmarking of deemed-to-satisfy provisions in standards: durability of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chlorides; fib Bulletin 76","author":"Gehlen C.","year":"2015"},{"key":"CIT0012","volume-title":"Bridge deterioration modeling by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method.","author":"Karunarathna W.","year":"2013"},{"key":"CIT0013","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)1076-0342(2001)7:4(136)"},{"key":"CIT0014","volume-title":"The IABMAS bridge management committee overview of existing bridge management system.","author":"Mirzaei Z.","year":"2014"},{"key":"CIT0015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)0887-3828(2006)20:2(146)"},{"key":"CIT0016","first-page":"114","volume-title":"Structural safety and reliability","volume":"1","author":"Ng S.-K.","year":"1998"},{"key":"CIT0017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b11332-163"},{"issue":"4","key":"CIT0018","first-page":"287","volume":"62","author":"Puz G.","year":"2010","journal-title":"Gra\u0111evinar"},{"issue":"12","key":"CIT0019","first-page":"1079","volume":"65","author":"Puz G.","year":"2013","journal-title":"Gra\u0111evinar"},{"key":"CIT0022","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2007.03.019"}],"container-title":["JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.vilniustech.lt\/index.php\/JCEM\/article\/view\/1101\/1598","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,22]],"date-time":"2022-04-22T13:15:41Z","timestamp":1650633341000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.vilniustech.lt\/index.php\/JCEM\/article\/view\/1101"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,24]]},"references-count":17,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,24]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3846\/13923730.2017.1323795","relation":{},"ISSN":["1392-3730","1822-3605"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1392-3730","type":"print"},{"value":"1822-3605","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,24]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Vilnius Gediminas Technical University","name":"this_article_is_maintained_by","label":"This article is maintained by"},{"value":"Research Article","name":"content_type","label":"Content Type"},{"value":"Yes","name":"crosschecked","label":"CrossChecked"},{"value":"Yes","order":0,"name":"peer_reviewed","label":"Peer Reviewed","group":{"name":"peer_review","label":"Peer Review"}},{"value":"Double blind","order":1,"name":"review_process","label":"Review Process","group":{"name":"peer_review","label":"Peer Review"}},{"value":"2017-03-06","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"22017-04-24","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2017-05-24","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"@ 2017 Vilnius Gediminas Technical University Press","order":0,"name":"copyright","label":"Copyright","group":{"name":"copyright_and_licensing","label":"Copyright and Licensing"}}]}}