{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T15:33:14Z","timestamp":1740151994539,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Journal of Infection in Developing Countries","issue":"08","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,31]],"date-time":"2021-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1630368000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J Infect Dev Ctries"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Introduction: Since 2010, the number of new HIV-1 cases has declined by 30% globally, however, in few countries, such as Pakistan, the cases have continued to increase, where the country witnessed a 57% increase in the number of new infections between 2010 and 2020. The HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan is concentrated in certain high-risk groups, however, it is unknown which high-risk group has a higher likelihood of transmitting HIV-1 infections to vulnerable populations. This study aimed to apply mathematical probabilistic modeling to estimate the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan.\r\nMethodology: MATLAB software was used to conduct probabilistic modeling (chance estimation) of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan, and also draw a comparison between Pakistan and different high- and low- HIV-1 prevalence countries.\r\nResults: Our results revealed that Pakistan overall had the lowest probability of HIV-1 transmission as compared to other countries included in this study; however, within Pakistan, certain high-risk groups such as people who inject drugs (PWID) and the region of Larkana exhibited a high probability of HIV-1 transmissions.\r\nConclusions: Our study suggests that the concentrated HIV-1 epidemic in Pakistan has a high likelihood of expansion from certain high-risk groups to other vulnerable populations. Further studies to understand the socio-epidemiological factors driving the expansion of the HIV-1 epidemic within the country will guide specific HIV-1 intervention strategies to control the spread of HIV-1 from high-risk to other vulnerable populations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3855\/jidc.12664","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,10]],"date-time":"2021-09-10T21:22:36Z","timestamp":1631308956000},"page":"1212-1215","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["A mathematical modeling approach to measure the probability of HIV-1 transmission for different high-risk groups of Pakistan"],"prefix":"10.3855","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Syed","family":"Rizwan-ul-Hasan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fatima","family":"Farrukh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Shakil","family":"Ahmed","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9497-0902","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Syed Hani","family":"Abidi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2222","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,31]]},"container-title":["The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.jidc.org\/index.php\/journal\/article\/download\/12664\/2600","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.jidc.org\/index.php\/journal\/article\/download\/12664\/2600","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,10]],"date-time":"2021-09-10T21:22:36Z","timestamp":1631308956000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.jidc.org\/index.php\/journal\/article\/view\/12664"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,31]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"08","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,31]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3855\/jidc.12664","relation":{},"ISSN":["1972-2680"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1972-2680"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,31]]}}}