{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,2]],"date-time":"2025-08-02T18:59:30Z","timestamp":1754161170077,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Journal of Infection in Developing Countries","issue":"07","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]],"date-time":"2025-07-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1753660800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["81973155"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["81973155"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J Infect Dev Ctries"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Introduction: This study proposes a combined Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Long Short-Term Memory (SARIMA-LSTM) model to enhance the accuracy of evaluating the effectiveness of visceral leishmaniasis prevention and control efforts in Yangquan, China.\nMethodology: Data were obtained from the Yangquan Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. The hybrid model integrates a SARIMA component with a residual-based LSTM neural network.\nResults: In the SARIMA-LSTM model, the LSTM component included seven hidden layer nodes, a learning rate of 0.001, 500 training epochs, a batch size of 256, and utilized the Adam optimization algorithm. The SARIMA-LSTM model demonstrated superior performance (MSE = 2.824, MAE = 1.279, RMSE = 1.681). A paired samples t-test revealed a statistically significant difference between predicted and actual case counts (t = -4.058, p &lt; 0.001), indicating that the actual number of cases was lower than predicted.\nConclusions: The combined SARIMA-LSTM model outperformed the individual SARIMA and LSTM models, suggesting that the implemented interventions were generally effective.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3855\/jidc.20739","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]],"date-time":"2025-07-28T16:48:27Z","timestamp":1753721307000},"page":"1115-1120","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Application of the SARIMA-LSTM model to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions for Visceral Leishmaniasis"],"prefix":"10.3855","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-8218-0414","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mengchen","family":"Han","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-4546-6696","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chongqi","family":"Hao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhiyang","family":"Zhao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Peijun","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bin","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4705-878X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lixia","family":"Qiu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2222","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]]},"container-title":["The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.jidc.org\/index.php\/journal\/article\/download\/20739\/3702","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.jidc.org\/index.php\/journal\/article\/download\/20739\/3702","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]],"date-time":"2025-07-28T16:48:27Z","timestamp":1753721307000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.jidc.org\/index.php\/journal\/article\/view\/20739"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"07","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3855\/jidc.20739","relation":{},"ISSN":["1972-2680"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1972-2680"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]]}}}