{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T22:04:57Z","timestamp":1791324297573,"version":"4.3.1"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"The Journal of Rheumatology","issue":"3","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J Rheumatol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objective.<\/jats:title><jats:p>Warfarin use in scleroderma (SSc)-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and idiopathic PAH (IPAH) is controversial. A prerequisite for a trial is the demonstration of community uncertainty. We evaluated experts\u2019 beliefs about the effect of warfarin on 3-year survival in SSc-PAH and IPAH, and factors that influence warfarin use.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods.<\/jats:title><jats:p>PAH experts attending the 2008 American College of Rheumatology or American Thoracic Society meetings expressed the probability of 3-year survival without and with warfarin and their degree of uncertainty by applying adhesive dots, each representing a 5% weight of probability, in \u201cbins\u201d on a line, creating a prior probability distribution or prior. Using a numeric rating scale, participants rated factors that influence their use of warfarin.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results.<\/jats:title><jats:p>Forty-five experts (44% pulmonologists, 38% rheumatologists, 16% cardiologists, 2% internists) underwent the belief elicitation interview. In SSc-PAH, the mean probabilities of 3-year survival without and with warfarin were 54% and 56%, respectively. Pessimistic experts believe that warfarin worsens survival by 7%. Optimistic experts believe that warfarin improves survival by 13%. In IPAH, the mean probabilities of 3-year survival without and with warfarin were 68% and 76%. Factors (mean rating out of 10, 0 = not at all important, 10 = extremely important) that influence experts\u2019 use of warfarin were functional class (5.4), age (5.4), pulmonary artery pressure (5.2), peripheral vascular disease (3.6), disease duration (2.8), and sex (1.7).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion.<\/jats:title><jats:p>Bayesian priors effectively quantify and illustrate experts\u2019 beliefs about the effect of warfarin on survival in SSc-PAH and IPAH. This study demonstrates the presence of uncertainty about the effect of warfarin, and provides justification for a clinical trial.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3899\/jrheum.100632","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2010,12,15]],"date-time":"2010-12-15T22:57:13Z","timestamp":1292453833000},"page":"462-469","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":30,"title":["Effect of Warfarin on Survival in Scleroderma-associated Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (SSc-PAH) and Idiopathic PAH. 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