{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,8]],"date-time":"2026-06-08T16:33:03Z","timestamp":1780936383775,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":19,"publisher":"The Journal of Rheumatology","issue":"6","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J Rheumatol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,6]]},"abstract":"\n Objective.<\/jats:title>\n To estimate the probability of early remission with conventional treatment for each child with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Children with a low chance of remission may be candidates for initial treatment with biologics or triple disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARD).<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Methods.<\/jats:title>\n We used data from 1074 subjects in the Research in Arthritis in Canadian Children emphasizing Outcomes (ReACCh-Out) cohort. The predicted outcome was clinically inactive disease for \u2265 6 months starting within 1 year of JIA diagnosis in patients who did not receive early biologic agents or triple DMARD. Models were developed in 200 random splits of 75% of the cohort and tested on the remaining 25% of subjects, calculating expected and observed frequencies of remission and c-index values.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Results.<\/jats:title>\n Our best Cox logistic model combining 18 clinical variables a median of 2 days after diagnosis had a c-index of 0.69 (95% CI 0.67\u20130.71), better than using JIA category alone (0.59, 95% CI 0.56\u20130.63). Children in the lowest probability decile had a 20% chance of remission and 21% attained remission; children in the highest decile had a 69% chance of remission and 73% attained remission. Compared to 5% of subjects identified by JIA category alone, the model identified 14% of subjects as low chance of remission (probability < 0.25), of whom 77% failed to attain remission.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Conclusion.<\/jats:title>\n \n Although the model did not meet our\n a priori<\/jats:italic>\n performance threshold (c-index > 0.70), it identified 3 times more subjects with low chance of remission than did JIA category alone, and it may serve as a benchmark for assessing value added by future laboratory\/imaging biomarkers.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.3899\/jrheum.180456","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,15]],"date-time":"2019-01-15T12:23:37Z","timestamp":1547555017000},"page":"628-635","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":33,"title":["Predicting Which Children with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Will Not Attain Early Remission with Conventional Treatment: Results from the ReACCh-Out Cohort"],"prefix":"10.3899","volume":"46","author":[{"given":"Jaime","family":"Guzman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew","family":"Henrey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas","family":"Loughin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roberta A.","family":"Berard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Natalie J.","family":"Shiff","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roman","family":"Jurencak","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adam M.","family":"Huber","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kiem","family":"Oen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kerstin","family":"Gerhold","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Brian M.","family":"Feldman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rosie","family":"Scuccimarri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristin","family":"Houghton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ga\u00eblle","family":"Ch\u00e9deville","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kimberly","family":"Morishita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bianca","family":"Lang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5998-9608","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paul","family":"Dancey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alan M.","family":"Rosenberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julie","family":"Barsalou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alessandra","family":"Bruns","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karen","family":"Watanabe Duffy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Susanne","family":"Benseler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ciaran M.","family":"Duffy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lori B.","family":"Tucker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2262","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2014-205372"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/acr.20460"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/ard.2010.143347"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.34343"},{"issue":"Suppl 31","key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.5","first-page":"S89","article-title":"Early predictors of outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis","volume":"5","author":"Ravelli","year":"2003","journal-title":"Clin Exp Rheumatol"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2014-205265"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00003246-198108000-00008"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/01.CIR.97.18.1837"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/annrheumdis-2011-200942"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1186\/s12969-015-0002-3","article-title":"Prediction of methotrexate intolerance in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a prospective, observational cohort study","volume":"13","author":"van Dijkhuizen","year":"2015","journal-title":"Pediatr Rheumatol Online J"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3899\/jrheum.160197"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.849166"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.24539"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/acr.20497"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.15"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10705510802339072"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/art.1780371209"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpeds.2010.08.003"},{"key":"2019061118352011000_46.6.628.19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"468","DOI":"10.1016\/S1297-319X(02)00432-3","article-title":"Validation of the French version of the Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) in juvenile idiopathic arthritis","volume":"69","author":"Pouchot","year":"2002","journal-title":"Joint Bone Spine"}],"container-title":["The Journal of Rheumatology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/syndication.highwire.org\/content\/doi\/10.3899\/jrheum.180456","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,11]],"date-time":"2019-06-11T21:36:03Z","timestamp":1560288963000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.jrheum.org\/lookup\/doi\/10.3899\/jrheum.180456"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,15]]},"references-count":19,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,1]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.3899\/jrheum.180456"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3899\/jrheum.180456","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.3410\/f.734871514.793582491","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0315-162X","1499-2752"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0315-162X","type":"print"},{"value":"1499-2752","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,15]]}}}