{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T16:09:25Z","timestamp":1790698165516,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)","issue":"6","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["MBE"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022]]},"abstract":"<jats:p xml:lang=\"fr\">&lt;abstract&gt;\n\n&lt;p&gt;Public health and social measures (PHSMs) targeting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have potentially affected the epidemiological dynamics of endemic infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the impact of PHSMs for COVID-19, with a particular focus on varicella dynamics in Japan. We adopted the susceptible-infectious-recovered type of mathematical model to reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics of varicella from Jan. 2010 to Sep. 2021. We analyzed epidemiological and demographic data and estimated the within-year and multi-year component of the force of infection and the biases associated with reporting and ascertainment in three periods: pre-vaccination (Jan. 2010\u2013Dec. 2014), pre-pandemic vaccination (Jan. 2015\u2013Mar. 2020) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (Apr. 2020\u2013Sep. 2021). By using the estimated parameter values, we reconstructed and predicted the varicella dynamics from 2010 to 2027. Although the varicella incidence dropped drastically during the COVID-19 pandemic, the change in susceptible dynamics was minimal; the number of susceptible individuals was almost stable. Our prediction showed that the risk of a major outbreak in the post-pandemic era may be relatively small. However, uncertainties, including age-related susceptibility and travel-related cases, exist and careful monitoring would be required to prepare for future varicella outbreaks.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\n&lt;\/abstract&gt;<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2022280","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,12]],"date-time":"2022-04-12T06:41:45Z","timestamp":1649745705000},"page":"5998-6012","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Transmission dynamics of varicella before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a modelling study"],"prefix":"10.3934","volume":"19","author":[{"given":"Ayako","family":"Suzuki","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hiroshi","family":"Nishiura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2321","reference":[{"key":"key-10.3934\/mbe.2022280-1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"D. Enria, Z. Feng, A. 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Gershon, J. Breuer, J. I. Cohen, R. J. Cohrs, M. D. Gershon, D. Gilfen, et al., Varicella zoster virus infection, <i>Nat. Rev. Dis. Primers<\/i>, <b>1<\/b> (2015), 15016. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/nrdp.2015.16","DOI":"10.1038\/nrdp.2015.16"},{"key":"key-10.3934\/mbe.2022280-11","unstructured":"<i>WHO Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Monitoring System 2018<\/i>, World Health Organization."},{"key":"key-10.3934\/mbe.2022280-12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"M. Marin, M. Marti, A. Kambhampati, S. M. Jeram, J. F. Seward, Global varicella vaccine effectiveness: A meta-analysis, <i>Pediatrics<\/i>, <b>137<\/b> (2016), e20153741. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1542\/peds.2015-3741","DOI":"10.1542\/peds.2015-3741"},{"key":"key-10.3934\/mbe.2022280-13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"M. E. Halloran, S. L. Cochi, T. A. Lieu, M. Wharton, L. 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Park, The impact of two-dose varicella vaccination on varicella and herpes zoster incidence in South Korea using a mathematical model with changing population demographics, <i>Vaccine.<\/i>, <b>39<\/b> (2021), 2575\u20132583. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.vaccine.2021.03.056","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2021.03.056"},{"key":"key-10.3934\/mbe.2022280-22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"M. Pawaskar, C. Burgess, M. Pillsbury, T. Wisl\u00f8ff, E. 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