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The main goal of this work is to take into account the variability underlying the data set and analyse the estimation accuracy of the model using a residual bootstrapped approach in order to compute confidence intervals for the prediction of COVID-19 confirmed active cases. All numerical simulations are performed in R environment (&lt;inline-formula id=\"math-09-02-136-M1\"&gt;&lt;inline-graphic xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" xlink:href=\"math-09-02-136-M1.jpg\"\/&gt;&lt;\/inline-formula&gt; version. 4.0.5). The proposed algorithm can be used, after a suitable adaptation, in other communicable diseases and outbreaks.&lt;\/p&gt;&lt;\/abstract&gt;<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3934\/math.2024136","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,29]],"date-time":"2023-12-29T10:05:52Z","timestamp":1703844352000},"page":"2756-2765","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Evaluating COVID-19 in Portugal: Bootstrap confidence interval"],"prefix":"10.3934","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Sofia","family":"Tedim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Vera","family":"Afreixo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Miguel","family":"Felgueiras","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ESTG, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria and CEAUL, Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Rui Pedro","family":"Leit\u00e3o","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Unit, Baixo Vouga Primary Care Cluster, Administra\u00e7\u00e3o Regional de Sa\u00fade (ARS) Centro, Av. Dr. Louren\u00e7o Peixinho, n 42, 4 andar, 3804-502 Aveiro, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Sofia J.","family":"Pinheiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal"}]},{"given":"Cristiana J.","family":"Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal"},{"name":"Iscte - Instituto Universit\u00e1rio de Lisboa, ISTA, Av. das For\u00e7as Armadas, 1649-026 Lisboa, Portugal"}]}],"member":"2321","reference":[{"key":"key-10.3934\/math.2024136-1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"E. Bertuzzo, L. Mari, D. Pasetto, S. Miccoli, R. Casagrandi, M. Gatto, et al., The geography of COVID-19 spread in Italy and implications for the relaxation of confinement measures, <i>Nat. 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