{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,11]],"date-time":"2026-10-11T03:33:03Z","timestamp":1791689583015,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"The Econometric Society","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,1]],"date-time":"2025-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735689600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["ECTA"],"abstract":"<jats:p>We exploit the implementation of a rural pension policy in China to estimate the average rural\u2010to\u2010urban migration cost for workers affected by the policy and the average underlying sectoral productivity difference. Our estimates, based on a large panel data set, reveal significant migration costs and substantial sectoral productivity differences, with sorting playing a minor role in accounting for sectoral labor income gaps. We construct and structurally estimate a general equilibrium household model with endogenous labor supply and migration. The results of this model align with the reduced\u2010form findings and illustrate how the rural pension policy influences migration, GDP, and welfare through improving within\u2010household labor allocation. Counterfactual analyses based on the model show that the positive effects of the policy remain even if migration costs were significantly lower, and that scaling up the rural pension policy would lead to even larger improvements in labor allocation, GDP, and welfare.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3982\/ecta19699","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,12]],"date-time":"2025-09-12T08:58:58Z","timestamp":1757667538000},"page":"1663-1696","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Rural Pensions, Labor Reallocation, and Aggregate Income: An Empirical and Quantitative Analysis of China"],"prefix":"10.3982","volume":"93","author":[{"given":"Qingen","family":"Gai","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Naijia","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Hong Kong"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bingjing","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Hong Kong"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qinghua","family":"Shi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaodong","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Hong Kong"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2359","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"ecta200815-bib-0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1261","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA16598","volume":"90","author":"Adamopoulos","year":"2022","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0002","first-page":"153","volume":"12","author":"Alvarez","year":"2020","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0003","first-page":"22","volume":"1","author":"Ardington","year":"2009","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Applied economics"},{"issue":"3","key":"ecta200815-bib-0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1010","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00105","volume":"93","author":"Beegle","year":"2011","journal-title":"Review of Economics and Statistics"},{"issue":"4","key":"ecta200815-bib-0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"769","DOI":"10.1086\/428713","volume":"53","author":"Benjamin","year":"2005","journal-title":"Economic Development and Cultural Change"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1093\/wber\/lhg014","volume":"17","author":"Bertrand","year":"2003","journal-title":"The World Bank Economic Review"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2022.05.007","volume":"120","author":"Bick","year":"2022","journal-title":"Journal of Monetary Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1086\/505722","volume":"55","author":"Brandt","year":"2006","journal-title":"Economic Development and Cultural Change"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"39","DOI":"10.1016\/j.red.2012.10.002","volume":"16","author":"Brandt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Review of Economic Dynamics"},{"issue":"5","key":"ecta200815-bib-0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1671","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA10489","volume":"82","author":"Bryan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"5","key":"ecta200815-bib-0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1127","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00237","volume":"69","author":"Card","year":"2001","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"679","DOI":"10.1016\/S1574-0684(05)01009-9","volume":"1","author":"Caselli","year":"2005","journal-title":"Handbook of Economic Growth"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0013","first-page":"59","volume-title":"Edward Elgar Handbook on Urban Development in China, Edward Elgar","author":"Chan","year":"2019"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chari, Amalavoyal, Elaine Liu, Shing-Yi Wang, and Yongxiang Wang (2020): \u201cProperty Rights, Land Misallocation and Agricultural Efficiency in China,\u201d Review of Economic Studies.","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdaa072"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jce.2016.12.002","volume":"46","author":"Cheng","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Comparative Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1007\/s00148-017-0655-y","volume":"31","author":"Cheng","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Population Economics"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1016\/j.labeco.2016.06.004","volume":"41","author":"Cornelissen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Labour Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jdeveco.2007.10.007","volume":"86","author":"Carvalho Filho","year":"2008","journal-title":"Journal of Development Economics"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Donovan, Kevin, and Todd Schoellman (2022): \u201cThe Role of Labor Market Frictions in Structural Transformation,\u201d Working Paper, Forthcoming in Oxford Development Studies.","DOI":"10.1080\/13600818.2023.2276702"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1093\/wber\/lhg013","volume":"17","author":"Duflo","year":"2003","journal-title":"The World Bank Economic Review"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0021","first-page":"64","volume":"32","author":"Eggleston","year":"2018","journal-title":"The World Bank Economic Review"},{"issue":"3","key":"ecta200815-bib-0022","first-page":"252","volume":"11","author":"Fan","year":"2019","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gai, Qingen, Naijia Guo, Bingjing Li, Qinghua Shi, and Xiaodong Zhu (2025): \u201cSupplement to \u2018Rural Pensions, Labor Reallocation, and Aggregate Income: An Empirical and Quantitative Analysis of China\u2019,\u201d Econometrica Supplemental Material, 93, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3982\/ECTA19699.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.5127671"},{"issue":"5","key":"ecta200815-bib-0024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"165","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.104.5.165","volume":"104","author":"Gollin","year":"2014","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"issue":"2","key":"ecta200815-bib-0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"160","DOI":"10.1257\/000282802320189177","volume":"92","author":"Gollin","year":"2002","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jdeveco.2024.103390","volume":"172","author":"Guo","year":"2025","journal-title":"Journal of Development Economics"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0027","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hamory, Joan, Marieke Kleemans, Nicholas Y. Li, and Edward Miguel (2021): \u201cReevaluating Agricultural Productivity Gaps With Longitudinal Microdata,\u201d Journal of the European Economic Association.","DOI":"10.1093\/jeea\/jvaa043"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2020.03.003","volume":"113","author":"Hao","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Monetary Economics"},{"issue":"7","key":"ecta200815-bib-0029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2075","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.104.7.2075","volume":"114","author":"Heathcote","year":"2014","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"issue":"5","key":"ecta200815-bib-0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1121","DOI":"10.2307\/2938303","volume":"58","author":"Heckman","year":"1990","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"2","key":"ecta200815-bib-0031","first-page":"1","volume":"10","author":"Herrendorf","year":"2018","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics"},{"issue":"4","key":"ecta200815-bib-0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1403","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.2009.124.4.1403","volume":"124","author":"Hsieh","year":"2009","journal-title":"Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"issue":"2","key":"ecta200815-bib-0033","first-page":"179","volume":"13","author":"Huang","year":"2021","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jdeveco.2020.102473","volume":"146","author":"Imbert","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Development Economics"},{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"ecta200815-bib-0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1016\/S0047-2727(02)00085-3","volume":"88","author":"Jensen","year":"2004","journal-title":"Journal of Public Economics"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0036","first-page":"88","volume":"4","author":"Jiao","year":"2016","journal-title":"Population Research"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"214","DOI":"10.1016\/j.worlddev.2013.10.029","volume":"56","author":"Kaushal","year":"2014","journal-title":"World Development"},{"issue":"4","key":"ecta200815-bib-0038","first-page":"1","volume":"10","author":"Kinnan","year":"2018","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Applied Economics"},{"issue":"3","key":"ecta200815-bib-0039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"174","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.34.3.174","volume":"34","author":"Lagakos","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Perspectives"},{"issue":"2","key":"ecta200815-bib-0040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"948","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.103.2.948","volume":"103","author":"Lagakos","year":"2013","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2020.03.013","volume":"113","author":"Lagakos","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Monetary Economics"},{"issue":"3","key":"ecta200815-bib-0042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"803","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA15962","volume":"91","author":"Lagakos","year":"2023","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"2","key":"ecta200815-bib-0043","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"265","DOI":"10.1080\/13545701.2017.1421768","volume":"24","author":"Li","year":"2018","journal-title":"Feminist Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20131365","volume":"106","author":"Munshi","year":"2016","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"issue":"5","key":"ecta200815-bib-0045","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1617","DOI":"10.1093\/jeea\/jvy035","volume":"17","author":"Ngai","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of the European Economic Association"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0046","unstructured":"Pulido, Jos\u00e9, and Tomasz Swiecki (2018): \u201cBarriers to Mobility or Sorting? Sources and Aggregate Implications of Income Gaps Across Sectors and Locations in Indonesia.\u201d"},{"issue":"2","key":"ecta200815-bib-0047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"234","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2007.11.006","volume":"55","author":"Restuccia","year":"2008","journal-title":"Journal of Monetary Economics"},{"issue":"7","key":"ecta200815-bib-0048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"791","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9515.2006.00533.x","volume":"40","author":"Shi","year":"2006","journal-title":"Social Policy & Administration"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"196","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.101.1.196","volume":"101","author":"Song","year":"2011","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0050","unstructured":"Tian, Yuan, Junjie Xia, and Rudai Yang (2025): \u201cTrade-Induced Urbanization and the Making of Modern Agriculture,\u201d Technical Report."},{"issue":"5","key":"ecta200815-bib-0051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1843","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20150811","volume":"109","author":"Tombe","year":"2019","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0052","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.worlddev.2020.105017","volume":"134","author":"Unnikrishnan","year":"2020","journal-title":"World Development"},{"issue":"1","key":"ecta200815-bib-0053","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-124X.2006.00001.x","volume":"14","author":"Wang","year":"2006","journal-title":"China & World Economy"},{"issue":"2","key":"ecta200815-bib-0054","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"420","DOI":"10.3368\/jhr.50.2.420","volume":"50","author":"Wooldridge","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Human Resources"},{"key":"ecta200815-bib-0055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.worlddev.2023.106295","volume":"169","author":"Yang","year":"2023","journal-title":"World Development"},{"issue":"4","key":"ecta200815-bib-0056","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1727","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjt025","volume":"128","author":"Young","year":"2013","journal-title":"The Quarterly Journal of Economics"}],"container-title":["Econometrica"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,12]],"date-time":"2025-09-12T08:59:45Z","timestamp":1757667585000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.econometricsociety.org\/doi\/10.3982\/ECTA19699"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025]]},"references-count":56,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025]]}},"alternative-id":["10.3982\/ECTA19699"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3982\/ecta19699","relation":{},"ISSN":["0012-9682"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0012-9682","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025]]}}}