{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T19:09:33Z","timestamp":1790622573953,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"The Econometric Society","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,1]],"date-time":"2020-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1577836800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000781","name":"European Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000781","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["QE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    The key assumption in regression discontinuity analysis is that the distribution of potential outcomes varies smoothly with the running variable around the cutoff. In many empirical contexts, however, this assumption is not credible; and the running variable is said to be\n                    <jats:italic>manipulated<\/jats:italic>\n                    in this case. In this paper, we show that while causal effects are not point identified under manipulation, one can derive sharp bounds under a general model that covers a wide range of empirical patterns. The extent of manipulation, which determines the width of the bounds, is inferred from the data in our setup. Our approach therefore does not require making a binary decision regarding whether manipulation occurs or not, and can be used to deliver manipulation\u2010robust inference in settings where manipulation is conceivable, but not obvious from the data. We use our methods to study the disincentive effect of unemployment insurance on (formal) reemployment in Brazil, and show that our bounds remain informative, despite the fact that manipulation has a sizable effect on our estimates of causal parameters.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3982\/qe1079","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,16]],"date-time":"2020-07-16T02:48:03Z","timestamp":1594867683000},"page":"839-870","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":54,"title":["Bounds on treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs with a manipulated running variable"],"prefix":"10.3982","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Fran\u00e7ois","family":"Gerard","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary, University of London"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Miikka","family":"Rokkanen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Amazon Inc."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christoph","family":"Rothe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, University of Mannheim"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2359","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"quan200106-bib-0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2012.05.001","volume":"171","author":"Anderson","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"issue":"563","key":"quan200106-bib-0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"957","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0297.2012.02512.x","volume":"122","author":"Anderson","year":"2012","journal-title":"Economic Journal"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200106-bib-0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"399","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00114","volume":"68","author":"Andrews","year":"2000","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"6","key":"quan200106-bib-0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2805","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA8166","volume":"80","author":"Andrews","year":"2012","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200106-bib-0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00271","volume":"78","author":"Andrews","year":"2010","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200106-bib-0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"295","DOI":"10.2307\/1267823","volume":"24","author":"Berger","year":"1982","journal-title":"Technometrics"},{"key":"quan200106-bib-0007","author":"Bertanha","journal-title":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200106-bib-0008","first-page":"41","volume":"3","author":"Camacho","year":"2011","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Economic Policy"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200106-bib-0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1511","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.2007.122.4.1511","volume":"122","author":"Card","year":"2007","journal-title":"Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200106-bib-0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"597","DOI":"10.1162\/qjec.2009.124.2.597","volume":"124","author":"Card","year":"2009","journal-title":"The Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"key":"quan200106-bib-0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Card, D. and L. 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