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In a BLE, boundedly rational agents use simple, but optimal AR(1) forecasting rules whose parameters are consistent with the observed sample mean and autocorrelation of past data. We study the BLE concept in a standard 3\u2010equation New Keynesian model and develop an estimation methodology for the canonical Smets and Wouters (2007) model. A horse race between Rational Expectations (REE), BLE, and constant gain learning models shows that the BLE model outperforms the REE benchmark and is competitive with constant gain learning models in terms of in\u2010sample and out\u2010of\u2010sample fitness. Sample\u2010autocorrelation learning of optimal AR(1) beliefs provides the best fit when short\u2010term survey data on inflation expectations are taken into account in the estimation. As a policy application, we show that optimal Taylor rules under AR(1) expectations inherit history dependence and require a lower degrees of interest rate smoothing than REE.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3982\/qe1533","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,9]],"date-time":"2023-11-09T03:28:45Z","timestamp":1699500525000},"page":"1401-1445","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models"],"prefix":"10.3982","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Cars","family":"Hommes","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Bank of Canada"},{"name":"CeNDEF, Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kostas","family":"Mavromatis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"De Nederlandsche Bank"},{"name":"Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tolga","family":"\u00d6zden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bank of Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mei","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Advanced Research and School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics"},{"name":"The Key Laboratory of Mathematical Economics (SUFE), Ministry of Education"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2359","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023]]},"reference":[{"issue":"520","key":"quan200295-bib-0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"603","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0297.2007.02043.x","volume":"117","author":"Adam","year":"2007","journal-title":"The Economic Journal"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200295-bib-0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1465-7295.2010.00328.x","volume":"49","author":"Adam","year":"2011","journal-title":"Economic Inquiry"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200295-bib-0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1086\/712313","volume":"35","author":"Angeletos","year":"2021","journal-title":"NBER Macroeconomics Annual"},{"key":"quan200295-bib-0004","first-page":"1065","volume-title":"Handbook of Macroeconomics","volume":"2","author":"Angeletos","year":"2016"},{"key":"quan200295-bib-0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"170","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2019.12.005","volume":"117","author":"Assenza","year":"2021","journal-title":"Journal of Monetary Economics"},{"key":"quan200295-bib-0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jedc.2022.104415","volume":"139","author":"Audzei","year":"2022","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control"},{"key":"quan200295-bib-0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jebo.2017.10.004","volume":"144","author":"Berardi","year":"2017","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization"},{"issue":"3","key":"quan200295-bib-0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"570","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.103.3.570","volume":"103","author":"Beshears","year":"2013","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"issue":"9","key":"quan200295-bib-0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2748","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20181219","volume":"110","author":"Bordalo","year":"2020","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"quan200295-bib-0010","first-page":"135","volume-title":"Post Walrasian Macroeconomics: Beyond the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model","author":"Branch","year":"2004"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200295-bib-0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"158","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2005.09.005","volume":"91","author":"Branch","year":"2006","journal-title":"Economics Letters"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200295-bib-0012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1651","DOI":"10.1093\/rfs\/hhp112","volume":"23","author":"Branch","year":"2010","journal-title":"The review of financial studies"},{"key":"quan200295-bib-0013","unstructured":"Branch, William A., George W. 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