{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,14]],"date-time":"2026-10-14T01:35:49Z","timestamp":1791941749273,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":80,"publisher":"The Econometric Society","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,1,1]],"date-time":"2022-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1640995200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["QE"],"abstract":"<jats:p>We propose a framework for estimation and inference when the model may be misspecified. We rely on a local asymptotic approach where the degree of misspecification is indexed by the sample size. We construct estimators whose mean squared error is minimax in a neighborhood of the reference model, based on one\u2010step adjustments. In addition, we provide confidence intervals that contain the true parameter under local misspecification. As a tool to interpret the degree of misspecification, we map it to the local power of a specification test of the reference model. Our approach allows for systematic sensitivity analysis when the parameter of interest may be partially or irregularly identified. As illustrations, we study three applications: an empirical analysis of the impact of conditional cash transfers in Mexico where misspecification stems from the presence of stigma effects of the program, a cross\u2010sectional binary choice model where the error distribution is misspecified, and a dynamic panel data binary choice model where the number of time periods is small and the distribution of individual effects is misspecified.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3982\/qe1930","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,7,7]],"date-time":"2022-07-07T09:56:45Z","timestamp":1657187805000},"page":"907-954","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["Minimizing sensitivity to model misspecification"],"prefix":"10.3982","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"St\u00e9phane","family":"Bonhomme","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics, University of Chicago"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Martin","family":"Weidner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, University of Oxford"},{"name":"Institute for Fiscal Studies"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2359","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022]]},"reference":[{"key":"quan200192-bib-0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1086\/426036","volume":"113","author":"Altonji","year":"2005","journal-title":"Journal of Political Economy"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200192-bib-0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1553","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjx023","volume":"132","author":"Andrews","year":"2017","journal-title":"Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"issue":"6","key":"quan200192-bib-0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2231","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA16768","volume":"88","author":"Andrews","year":"2020","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200192-bib-0004","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"871","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjx001","volume":"132","author":"Angrist","year":"2017","journal-title":"Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0005","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3982\/QE1199","volume":"11","author":"Armstrong","year":"2020","journal-title":"Quantitative Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0006","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.3982\/QE1609","volume":"12","author":"Armstrong","year":"2021","journal-title":"Quantitative Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdr015","volume":"79","author":"Attanasio","year":"2012","journal-title":"The Review of Economic Studies"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1142\/p285","volume-title":"An Introduction to Differential Manifolds","author":"Barden","year":"2003"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Berger, James and L. Mark Berliner (1986), \u201cRobust Bayes and empirical Bayes analysis with e-contaminated priors.\u201d Annals of Statistics, 461\u2013486.","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176349933"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0010","volume-title":"Efficient and Adaptive Inference in Semiparametric Models","author":"Bickel","year":"1993"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200192-bib-0011","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1337","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA9311","volume":"80","author":"Bonhomme","year":"2012","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0012","unstructured":"Bonhomme, St\u00e9phane and Laurent Davezies (2017), \u201cPanel data, inverse problems, and the estimation of policy parameters.\u201d unpublished manuscript."},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0013","unstructured":"Bonhomme, St\u00e9phane and Martin Weidner (2018), \u201cMinimizing sensitivity to model misspecification.\u201d cemmap working paper (CWP59\/18)."},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bonhomme, St\u00e9phane and Martin Weidner (2021), \u201cPosterior average effects.\u201d the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. to appear in.","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2021.1984928"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bonhomme, St\u00e9phane, Martin Weidner (2022), \u201cSupplement to \u2018Minimizing sensitivity to model misspecification\u2019.\u201d Quantitative Economics Supplemental Material, 13, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3982\/QE1930.","DOI":"10.3982\/QE1930"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200192-bib-0016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1741","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA9604","volume":"80","author":"Bugni","year":"2012","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.3982\/QE917","volume":"10","author":"Bugni","year":"2019","journal-title":"Quantitative Economics"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"176","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466613000169","volume":"30","author":"Cattaneo","year":"2014","journal-title":"Econometric Theory"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0019","volume-title":"Handbook of Econometrics","volume":"2","author":"Chamberlain","year":"1984"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200192-bib-0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"255","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(99)00039-1","volume":"95","author":"Chamberlain","year":"2000","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"159","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA8419","volume":"78","author":"Chamberlain","year":"2010","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen, Xiaohong, Elie T. Tamer, and Alexander Torgovitsky (2011), \u201cSensitivity analysis in semiparametric likelihood models.\u201d unpublished manuscript.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.1963746"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200192-bib-0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"443","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2015.02.019","volume":"186","author":"Cheng","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"C1","DOI":"10.1111\/ectj.12097","volume":"21","author":"Chernozhukov","year":"2018","journal-title":"The Econometrics Journal"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0025","unstructured":"Chernozhukov, Victor, Juan Carlos Escanciano, Hidehiko Ichimura, and Whitney K. Newey (2020), \u201cLocally robust semiparametric estimation.\u201d arXiv:1608.00033. Preprint."},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200192-bib-0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"535","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA8405","volume":"81","author":"Chernozhukov","year":"2013","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0027","unstructured":"Christensen, Timothy and Benjamin Connault (2019), \u201cCounterfactual sensitivity and robustness.\u201d arXiv:1904.00989v2."},{"issue":"464","key":"quan200192-bib-0028","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"900","DOI":"10.1198\/016214503000000819","volume":"98","author":"Claeskens","year":"2003","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"260","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00139","volume":"94","author":"Conley","year":"2012","journal-title":"Review of Economics and Statistics"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Donoho, Don L. (1994), \u201cStatistical estimation and optimal recovery.\u201d The Annals of Statistics, 238\u2013270.","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176325367"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0031","volume-title":"Regularization of Inverse Problems","author":"Engl","year":"2000"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200192-bib-0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"681","DOI":"10.1162\/rest_a_00795","volume":"101","author":"Fessler","year":"2019","journal-title":"Review of Economics and Statistics"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fraser, Donald A. S. (1964), \u201cOn local unbiased estimation.\u201d Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Methodological), 46\u201351.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1964.tb00537.x"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200192-bib-0034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1519","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA16773","volume":"89","author":"Giacomini","year":"2021","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200192-bib-0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"387","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466611000375","volume":"28","author":"Guggenberger","year":"2012","journal-title":"Econometric Theory"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-1306-2_4","volume-title":"Robust Bayesian Analysis","author":"Gustafson","year":"2000"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0037","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hahn, Jinyong and Jerry Hausman (2005), \u201cEstimation with valid and invalid instruments.\u201d Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, 25\u201357.","DOI":"10.2307\/20777569"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0038","series-title":"Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics","volume-title":"Robust Statistics: The Approach Based on Influence Functions","author":"Hampel","year":"1986"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0039","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2015.09.003","volume":"190","author":"Hansen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"issue":"6-9","key":"quan200192-bib-0040","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"840","DOI":"10.1080\/07474938.2017.1307579","volume":"36","author":"Hansen","year":"2017","journal-title":"Econometric Reviews"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200192-bib-0041","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"511","DOI":"10.1214\/16-STS570","volume":"31","author":"Hansen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Statistical Science"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200192-bib-0042","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"60","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.91.2.60","volume":"91","author":"Hansen","year":"2001","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0043","volume-title":"Robustness","author":"Hansen","year":"2008"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2011.05.005","volume":"165","author":"Hausman","year":"2011","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0045","first-page":"179","volume-title":"The Structural Analysis of Discrete Data","author":"Heckman","year":"1981"},{"issue":"3","key":"quan200192-bib-0046","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"611","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0262.2006.00676.x","volume":"74","author":"Honor\u00e9","year":"2006","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0047","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1214\/aoms\/1177703732","volume":"35","author":"Huber","year":"1964","journal-title":"Annals of Mathematical Statistics"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0048","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470434697","volume-title":"Robust Statistics","author":"Huber","year":"2009","edition":"2nd Edition"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0049","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126","DOI":"10.1257\/000282803321946921","volume":"93","author":"Imbens","year":"2003","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"issue":"3","key":"quan200192-bib-0050","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1185","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA8617","volume":"81","author":"Kitamura","year":"2013","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0051","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Klaassen, Chris A. (1987), \u201cConsistent estimation of the influence function of locally asymptotically linear estimators.\u201d The Annals of Statistics, 1548\u20131562.","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176350609"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0052","series-title":"Applied Mathematical Sciences.","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-9593-2","volume-title":"Linear Integral Equations","volume":"82","author":"Kress","year":"2014"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0053","first-page":"31","volume":"73","author":"Leamer","year":"1983","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"issue":"3","key":"quan200192-bib-0054","first-page":"308","volume":"75","author":"Leamer","year":"1985","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"issue":"5","key":"quan200192-bib-0055","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"857","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466612000783","volume":"29","author":"Liao","year":"2013","journal-title":"Econometric Theory"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0056","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Maasoumi, Esfandiar (1978), \u201cA modified Stein-like estimator for the reduced form coefficients of simultaneous equations.\u201d Econometrica, 695\u2013703.","DOI":"10.2307\/1914241"},{"issue":"403","key":"quan200192-bib-0057","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"729","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1988.10478655","volume":"83","author":"Manski","year":"1988","journal-title":"Journal of the American statistical Association"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0058","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.3982\/QE1288","volume":"11","author":"Masten","year":"2020","journal-title":"Quantitative Economics"},{"issue":"3","key":"quan200192-bib-0059","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1449","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA17969","volume":"89","author":"Masten","year":"2021","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"6","key":"quan200192-bib-0060","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"581","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2012.09.003","volume":"59","author":"Mueller","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of Monetary Economics"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0061","unstructured":"Mukhin, Yaroslav (2018), \u201cSensitivity of regular estimators.\u201d arXiv:1805.08883. arXiv preprint."},{"issue":"3","key":"quan200192-bib-0062","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"659","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00171","volume":"94","author":"Nevo","year":"2012","journal-title":"Review of Economics and Statistics"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0063","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1349","DOI":"10.2307\/2951752","volume":"6","author":"Newey","year":"1994","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"3","key":"quan200192-bib-0064","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(85)90154-X","volume":"29","author":"Newey","year":"1985","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200192-bib-0065","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"99","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3950050202","volume":"5","author":"Newey","year":"1990","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Econometrics"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0066","volume-title":"Probability and Statistics, the Harald Cramer Volume","author":"Neyman","year":"1959"},{"issue":"3","key":"quan200192-bib-0067","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1229","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdt050","volume":"81","author":"Norets","year":"2014","journal-title":"Review of Economic Studies"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200192-bib-0068","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2016.1227711","volume":"37","author":"Oster","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Business & Economic Statistics"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0069","unstructured":"Pakes, Ariel and Jack Porter (2013), \u201cMoment inequalities for semiparametric multinomial choice with fixed effects.\u201d unpublished manuscript."},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0070","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4684-0624-5","volume-title":"Robust Asymptotic Statistics","author":"Rieder","year":"1994"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0071","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"212","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1983.tb01242.x","volume":"45","author":"Rosenbaum","year":"1983","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B"},{"issue":"1","key":"quan200192-bib-0072","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"345","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA9748","volume":"82","author":"Schennach","year":"2014","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"issue":"2","key":"quan200192-bib-0073","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"491","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2012.05.018","volume":"170","author":"Severini","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of Econometrics"},{"issue":"5","key":"quan200192-bib-0074","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1384","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.96.5.1384","volume":"96","author":"Todd","year":"2006","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0075","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Todd, Petra E. and Kenneth I. Wolpin (2008), \u201cEx ante evaluation of social programs.\u201d Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, 263\u2013291.","DOI":"10.2307\/27917248"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0076","volume-title":"Asymptotic Statistics","author":"Van der Vaart","year":"2007"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0077","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4612-1306-2_13","volume-title":"Robust Bayesian Analysis","author":"Vidakovic","year":"2000"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0078","volume-title":"Statistical Decision Functions","author":"Wald","year":"1950"},{"issue":"4","key":"quan200192-bib-0079","first-page":"465","volume":"31","author":"Watson","year":"2016","journal-title":"Statistical Science"},{"key":"quan200192-bib-0080","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.7551\/mitpress\/9258.001.0001","volume-title":"The Limits of Inference Without Theory","author":"Wolpin","year":"2013"}],"container-title":["Quantitative Economics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.3982\/QE1930","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,28]],"date-time":"2024-09-28T17:49:02Z","timestamp":1727545742000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/qeconomics.org\/ojs\/index.php\/qe\/article\/view\/QE1930"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022]]},"references-count":80,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022]]}},"alternative-id":["10.3982\/QE1930"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3982\/qe1930","relation":{},"ISSN":["1759-7323"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1759-7323","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022]]}}}