{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,27]],"date-time":"2026-09-27T17:26:28Z","timestamp":1790529988229,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"The Econometric Society","issue":"4","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["ECTA"],"abstract":"<jats:p>We estimate the distribution of television advertising elasticities and the distribution of the advertising return on investment (ROI) for a large number of products in many categories. Our results reveal substantially smaller advertising elasticities compared to the results documented in the literature, as well as a sizable percentage of statistically insignificant or negative estimates. The results are robust to functional form assumptions and are not driven by insufficient statistical power or measurement error. The ROI analysis shows negative ROIs at the margin for more than 80% of brands, implying over\u2010investment in advertising by most firms. Further, the overall ROI of the observed advertising schedule is only positive for one third of all brands.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3982\/ecta17674","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,16]],"date-time":"2021-07-16T07:50:20Z","timestamp":1626421820000},"page":"1855-1879","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":152,"title":["TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands"],"prefix":"10.3982","volume":"89","author":[{"given":"Bradley T.","family":"Shapiro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Booth, University of Chicago"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"G\u00fcnter J.","family":"Hitsch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Booth, University of Chicago"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anna E.","family":"Tuchman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kellogg, Northwestern University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2359","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021]]},"reference":[{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0001","unstructured":"Abraham, M. M., and L. M. Lodish (1990): \u201cGetting the Most out of Advertising and Promotion,\u201d Harvard Business Review."},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1177\/002224378402100107","volume":"21","author":"Assmus","year":"1984","journal-title":"Journal of Marketing Research"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0003","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1177\/002224378402100107","volume":"21","author":"Assmus","year":"1984","journal-title":"Journal of Marketing Research"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0004","unstructured":"Grocery Manufacturers Association and PricewaterhouseCoopers (2006): \u201cInsights Into the Food, Beverage, and Consumer Products Industry: GMA Overview of Industry Economic Impact, Financial Performance, and Trends.\u201d"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0005","first-page":"1701","volume-title":"Handbook of Industrial Organization","volume":"3","author":"Bagwell","year":"2007"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0006","unstructured":"Bar, R. N., and A. M. Haviv (2019): \u201cBrand Building to Deter Entry and Its Impact on Brand Value,\u201d Manuscript."},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0007","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"841","DOI":"10.2307\/2171802","volume":"63","author":"Berry","year":"1995","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA12423","volume":"83","author":"Blake","year":"2015","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0009","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.1287\/mksc.2016.1020","volume":"36","author":"Borkovsky","year":"2017","journal-title":"Marketing Science"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0010","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107","DOI":"10.1007\/s11129-005-0334-2","volume":"3","author":"Dub\u00e9","year":"2005","journal-title":"Quantitative Marketing and Economics"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0011","first-page":"1","volume":"3","author":"Ellison","year":"2011","journal-title":"American Economic Journal: Microeconomics"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0012","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1007\/BF03342755","volume":"4","author":"Henningsen","year":"2011","journal-title":"Business Research"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0013","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hitsch, G. J., A. Horta\u00e7su, and X. Lin (2021): \u201cPrices and Promotions in U.S. Retail Markets,\u201d Manuscript.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11129-021-09238-x"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0014","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hristakeva, S., and J. H. Mortimer (2020): \u201cImpacts of Legacy Discounts in the Market for National Television Advertising,\u201d Working Paper.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3911469"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0015","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"957","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-5907.2007.00291.x","volume":"51","author":"Huber","year":"2007","journal-title":"American Journal of Political Science"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0016","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1007\/s11129-015-9155-0","volume":"13","author":"Lewis","year":"2015","journal-title":"Quantitative Marketing and Economics"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0017","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1941","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjv023","volume":"130","author":"Lewis","year":"2015","journal-title":"Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1177\/002224379503200201","volume":"32","author":"Lodish","year":"1995","journal-title":"Journal of Marketing Research"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0019","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"395","DOI":"10.2307\/2600994","volume":"31","author":"Nevo","year":"2000","journal-title":"RAND Journal of Economics"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0020","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"705","DOI":"10.1086\/340779","volume":"110","author":"Petrin","year":"2002","journal-title":"Journal of Political Economy"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"459","DOI":"10.1509\/jmr.14.0274","volume":"53","author":"Sahni","year":"2016","journal-title":"Journal of Marketing Research"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0022","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"457","DOI":"10.1509\/jmkr.48.3.457","volume":"48","author":"Sethuraman","year":"2011","journal-title":"Journal of Marketing Research"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0023","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"381","DOI":"10.1086\/695475","volume":"126","author":"Shapiro","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Political Economy"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0024","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shapiro, B. T., G. J. Hitsch, and A. E. Tuchman (2021): \u201cSupplement to \u2018TV Advertising Effectiveness and Profitability: Generalizable Results From 288 Brands\u2019,\u201d Econometrica Supplemental Material, 89, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3982\/ECTA17674.","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA17674"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0025","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"836","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdy001","volume":"86","author":"Sinkinson","year":"2019","journal-title":"Review of Economic Studies"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0026","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1981","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjy010","volume":"133","author":"Spenkuch","year":"2018","journal-title":"Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0027","volume-title":"Sunk Costs and Market Structure","author":"Sutton","year":"1991"},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0028","unstructured":"The Winterberry Group (2020): \u201cThe Outlook for Data Driven Advertising and Marketing 2020,\u201d Technical report."},{"key":"ecta200319-bib-0029","first-page":"994","volume":"38","author":"Tuchman","year":"2019","journal-title":"Marketing Science"}],"container-title":["Econometrica"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,4]],"date-time":"2023-01-04T11:56:27Z","timestamp":1672833387000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.econometricsociety.org\/doi\/10.3982\/ECTA17674"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021]]},"references-count":29,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021]]}},"alternative-id":["10.3982\/ECTA17674"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3982\/ecta17674","relation":{},"ISSN":["0012-9682"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0012-9682","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021]]}}}