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However, the natural gas energy system is a complex system including different influencing and influenced variables that affect social and economic factors. This research has developed a system dynamics model to understand the complexity of the natural gas energy systems at the macro-level. The model shows the effective sub-systems of energy system with their related variables. It helps to predict the effective factors of an energy supply system based on statistics approaches. After that, three scenarios are defined based on expert opinions and the behaviors of the sub-systems in each scenario is analyzed. The approach also helps to understand unknown consequences of a decision or scenario in the energy system.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4018\/ijsda.2018070103","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,15]],"date-time":"2018-05-15T12:20:35Z","timestamp":1526386835000},"page":"57-71","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["The Robustness of Natural Gas Energy Supply"],"prefix":"10.4018","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Alireza","family":"Aslani","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Samaneh","family":"Akbari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Management and Planning, Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sanaz","family":"Tabasi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2432","reference":[{"key":"IJSDA.2018070103-0","unstructured":"Amini, F., Farmad, M., Fattahi, L., Tavanpoor, M., Solaimanpoor, P., & Karami nia, G. 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