{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,14]],"date-time":"2025-05-14T12:08:09Z","timestamp":1747224489625,"version":"3.40.5"},"reference-count":16,"publisher":"PAGEPress Publications","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,19]],"date-time":"2021-10-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1634601600000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Geospat Health"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Nineteenth-century London experienced four extraordinarily severe summertime cholera epidemics. Three were preceded by less severe non-summer outbreaks. Twenty-first-century research hypothesizes them as herald waves of potentially new cholera strains. This study examined the geographical characteristics of these herald waves and compared them to their subsequent main waves to determine if there was a geographical component to the significant difference in wave severity. Cholera mortality data for London\u2019s parishes and registration districts were extracted from contemporaneous records. The data were normalized and scaled. Each epidemic wave was divided into two segments for analysis. A Spearman\u2019s rank correlation was used to assess the relationship between a herald and its subsequent main wave. Geospatial analytical tools were used to determine and display each segment\u2019s geographic distribution pattern using autocorrelation techniques to determine its central point. Results show that the herald wave of each epidemic shared characteristics similar to its following main wave. Central-point locations were similar and Spearman\u2019s rank coefficients showed high degrees of correlation. Autocorrelation results were similar, with one exception reflecting an appalling anomalous cholera outbreak at an institution for children. Because of the demonstrated similarity of each epidemic\u2019s herald and main waves, this study did not detect a spatial characteristic that could explain the observed difference in severity between the studied heralds and mains.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4081\/gh.2021.983","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,19]],"date-time":"2021-10-19T11:42:11Z","timestamp":1634643731000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Spatial comparison of herald and main waves in London\u2019s nineteenth-century cholera epidemics"],"prefix":"10.4081","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5237-7219","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Walter","family":"Peterson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2549","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"3870","unstructured":"Burton N, Southall HR, 2004. GIS of the Ancient Parishes of England and Wales, 1500-1850. UK Data Service, SN 4828."},{"key":"3871","unstructured":"Census of Great Britain, 1831. Comparative account of the population of Great Britain in the years 1801, 1811, 1821 and 1831."},{"key":"3872","unstructured":"Dickens C, 1849. The Paradise at Tooting. London Examiner, 1\/20\/1849. Available from: https:\/\/www.thecircumlocutionoffice.com\/theparadiseattooting\/"},{"key":"3873","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Colwell R, 1996. Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm. Science 274:2025-31.","DOI":"10.1126\/science.274.5295.2025"},{"key":"3874","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Constantin de Magny G, Murtugudde R, Sapiano M, Nizam A, Brown C, Busalacchi A, Yunus M, Nair G, Gil A, Lanata C, Calkins J, Manna B, Rajendran K, Bhattacharya M, Huq A, Sack R, Colwell R, 2008. Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics. PNAS 105:17676-81.","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0809654105"},{"key":"3875","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Higuchi R, Bowman B, Freiberger M, Ryder O, Wilson A, 1984. DNA sequences from the quagga, an extinct member of the horse family. Nature 312:282-4.","DOI":"10.1038\/312282a0"},{"key":"3876","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ma J, Dushoff J, Bolker BM, Earn DJD, 2014. Estimating initial epidemic growth rates. Bull Math Biol 76:245-60.","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-013-9918-2"},{"key":"3877","unstructured":"Maplestone P, 2011. A lecture to the London & Middlesex Archaeological Society. Available from: https:\/\/www.londonparishclerks.com\/History\/The-Lectures."},{"key":"3878","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Moran PAP, 1950. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika 37:17-23.","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/37.1-2.17"},{"key":"3879","unstructured":"Metropolitan Sanitary Commission, 1848. The Metropolitan Sanitary Commission First Report of the Commissioners. William Clowes & Sons, 428 pp."},{"key":"3880","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"P\u00e4\u00e4bo S, Poinar H, Serre D, Jaenicke-Despr\u00e9s V, Hebler J, Rohland N, Kuch M, Krause J, Vigilant L, Hofreiter M, 2004. Genetic analyses from ancient DNA. Annu Rev Genet. 38:645-79.","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.genet.37.110801.143214"},{"key":"3881","unstructured":"Satchell AEM, Kitson PK, Newton GH, Shaw-Taylor L, Wrigley EA, 2018. 1851 England and Wales census parishes, townships, and places. UK Data Archive SN 852232. Available from: https:\/\/reshare.ukdataservice.ac.uk\/852232\/"},{"key":"3882","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Spyrou M, Bos K, Herbig A, Krause J, 2019. Ancient pathogen genomics as an emerging tool for infectious disease research. Genetics 20:323-40.","DOI":"10.1038\/s41576-019-0119-1"},{"key":"3883","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tien JH, Poinar HN, Fisman DN, Earn DJD, 2011. Herald waves of cholera in nineteenth century London. J R Soc Interface 8:756-60.","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2010.0494"},{"key":"3884","unstructured":"Whitehead H, 1865. The broad street pump: an episode in the cholera epidemic of 1854. Macmillan\u2019s Magazine 13:113-22."},{"key":"3885","unstructured":"Worshipful Company of Parish Clerks, 1832. Weekly Bills of Mortality, London. Note: Weekly Bills of Mortality are bound together in annual volumes in London\u2019s Guildhall Library."}],"container-title":["Geospatial Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.geospatialhealth.net\/index.php\/gh\/article\/download\/983\/997","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.geospatialhealth.net\/index.php\/gh\/article\/download\/983\/997","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,19]],"date-time":"2021-10-19T11:43:05Z","timestamp":1634643785000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.geospatialhealth.net\/index.php\/gh\/article\/view\/983"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,19]]},"references-count":16,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,19]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4081\/gh.2021.983","relation":{},"ISSN":["1970-7096","1827-1987"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1970-7096"},{"type":"print","value":"1827-1987"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,19]]}}}