{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]],"date-time":"2026-06-12T07:59:00Z","timestamp":1781251140033,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"PAGEPress Publications","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]],"date-time":"2026-06-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781222400000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Ital J Food Safety"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The safety of live bivalve mollusks (LBM) depends on complex interactions between pathogen ecology, environmental variability, and regulatory monitoring outcomes. Conventional compliance-based reopening decisions for classified harvesting areas often rely on limited sampling data and deterministic thresholds, without formally accounting for prior scientific evidence or uncertainty. This study proposes a Bayesian decision-support framework that integrates peer-reviewed evidence on pathogen occurrence, accumulation dynamics, and persistence in LBM into a probabilistic regulatory model for area classification and reopening decisions.\nA structured literature review was conducted to identify quantitative evidence describing the prevalence and behavior of bacterial, viral, and protozoan hazards in bivalve mollusks, including Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp., norovirus, hepatitis A virus, and protozoan parasites. This evidence was translated into literature-informed prior distributions representing baseline contamination probability and environmental risk conditions. A conjugate Bayesian \u03b2-binomial model was applied to integrate official monitoring data with prior knowledge, generating posterior distributions of the probability that microbial contamination exceeds acceptable thresholds. Decision criteria were established according to precautionary regulatory tolerance levels, expressed as the posterior probability of unacceptable contamination.\nNumerical case studies and Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated how the proposed framework supports transparent and risk-based regulatory decisions: scenarios included reopening under low residual risk, persistent closure under high posterior probability of exceedance and borderline situations requiring additional sampling. Integration of environmental evidence and pathogen-specific persistence (notably viral contamination with slow depuration dynamics) substantially influenced posterior risk estimates and decision outcomes. The results demonstrate that identical monitoring outcomes may lead to different regulatory decisions depending on prior ecological evidence and uncertainty quantification.\nThe proposed Bayesian decision framework integrating ecological evidence provides a scientifically robust and transparent tool for competent authorities managing LBM harvesting areas. By formally incorporating prior scientific knowledge, environmental indicators, and uncertainty, the framework operationalizes the precautionary principle while enabling adaptive, evidence-based reopening decisions consistent with European Union food safety legislation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4081\/ijfs.2026.15116","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]],"date-time":"2026-06-12T07:16:02Z","timestamp":1781248562000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Integrating uncertainty into official control decisions: Bayesian risk-based decision support for the safe reopening of live bivalve mollusk harvesting areas&lt;b&gt;&lt;\/b&gt;"],"prefix":"10.4081","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-6134-2257","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Cesare","family":"Ciccarelli","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Local Public Health Service - Ascoli Piceno, San Benedetto del Tronto"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Angela Marisa","family":"Semeraro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Local Public Health Service - Ascoli Piceno, San Benedetto del Tronto"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vittoria","family":"Di Trani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Local Public Health Service - Ascoli Piceno, San Benedetto del Tronto"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michela","family":"Conquista","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Local Public Health Service - Ascoli Piceno, San Benedetto del Tronto"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elena","family":"Ciccarelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Reading"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2549","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"235148","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Baker-Austin C, Oliver JD, Alam M, Ali A, Waldor MK, Qadri F, Martinez-Urtaza J, 2018. 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Microorganisms 11:2218.","DOI":"10.3390\/microorganisms11092218"},{"key":"235153","unstructured":"European Commission, 2019. Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019\/627 of 15 March 2019 laying down uniform practical arrangements for the performance of official controls on products of animal origin intended for human consumption. In: Official Journal, L131, 17\/05\/2019."},{"key":"235154","unstructured":"European Commission, 2021. Guidance document for competent authorities on the implementation of official controls on live bivalve molluscs. Brussels, Belgium: European Commission."},{"key":"235155","unstructured":"European Parliament, Council of the European Union, 2004. Regulation (EC) No 853\/2004 laying down specific hygiene rules for food of animal origin. In: Official Journal, L139, 30\/04\/2004."},{"key":"235156","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EFSA BIOHAZ Panel, 2011. Scientific opinion on an update on the present knowledge on the occurrence and control of foodborne viruses. EFSA J 9:2190.","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2011.2190"},{"key":"235157","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EFSA BIOHAZ Panel, 2012. Scientific opinion on norovirus in oysters: methods, limits and control options. EFSA J 10:2500.","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2012.2500"},{"key":"235158","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EFSA, 2019. Analysis of the European baseline survey of norovirus in oysters. EFSA J 17:e05762.","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2019.5762"},{"key":"235159","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EFSA BIOHAZ Panel, 2024. Scientific Opinion on Public health aspects of Vibrio spp. related to the consumption of seafood in the EU. EFSA J 22:e8896.","DOI":"10.2903\/j.efsa.2024.8896"},{"key":"235160","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ekundayo TC, Ijabadeniyi OA, 2024. Systematic review and meta-analysis of human bocavirus as food safety risk in shellfish. Sci Rep 14:26968.","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-75744-z"},{"key":"235161","unstructured":"FAO, WHO, 2021. Technical guidance for the development of the growing area aspects of Bivalve Mollusc Sanitation Programmes. Second edition. Food Safety and Quality Series No.5A. Rome, Italy."},{"key":"235162","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fehrenbach GV, Murphy E, Pogue R, Carter F, Clifford E, Major I, 2024. Comprehensive analysis and assessment of exposure to enteric viruses and bacteria in shellfish. Mar Environ Res 196:106404.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.marenvres.2024.106404"},{"key":"235163","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Dunson DB, Vehtari A, Rubin D, 2014. Bayesian data analysis, 3rd ed. Chapman & Hall\/CRC, Boca Raton, FL, USA.","DOI":"10.1201\/b16018"},{"key":"235164","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Greenland S, 2006. Bayesian perspectives for epidemiological research. Int J Epidemiol 35:765-75.","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyi312"},{"key":"235165","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kim M, Rueda L, Shapiro K, 2024. Protozoa in bivalve shellfish: gaps and opportunities to better understand risk to consumers. Current Opinion Food Sci 55:101104.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cofs.2023.101104"},{"key":"235166","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Johnson AA, Ott MQ, Dogucu M, 2022. Bayes rules! An introduction to applied Bayesian modeling. 1st ed. Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton, FL, USA.","DOI":"10.1201\/9780429288340"},{"key":"235167","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Le Guyader FS, Atmar RL, Le Pendu J, 2012. Transmission of viruses through shellfish: when specific ligands come into play. Current Opinion Virol 2:103-10.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coviro.2011.10.029"},{"key":"235168","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lees D, 2000. Viruses and bivalve shellfish. Int J Food Microbiol 59:81-116.","DOI":"10.1016\/S0168-1605(00)00248-8"},{"key":"235169","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Maalouf H, Zakhour M, Le Pendu J, Le Saux JC, Atmar RL, Le Guyader FS, 2011. Distribution and seasonal variation of norovirus in oysters. Appl Environ Microbiol 77:5621-30.","DOI":"10.1128\/AEM.00148-10"},{"key":"235170","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Malham SK, Taft H, Farkas K Ladd CJT, Seymour M, Robins PE, Jones DL, McDonald JE, Le Vay L, Jones L, 2025. Multi-scale influences on Escherichia coli concentrations in shellfish: from catchment to estuary. Environ Pollution 366:125476.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envpol.2024.125476"},{"key":"235171","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nemes K, Person S, Simonsson M, 2023. Hepatitis A virus and hepatitis E virus as food- and waterborne pathogens\u2014transmission routes and methods for detection in food. 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Risk Analysis 27:351-71.","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2007.00887.x"}],"container-title":["Italian Journal of Food Safety"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.pagepressjournals.org\/ijfs\/article\/download\/15116\/14203","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.pagepressjournals.org\/ijfs\/article\/download\/15116\/14204","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.pagepressjournals.org\/ijfs\/article\/download\/15116\/14203","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]],"date-time":"2026-06-12T07:16:42Z","timestamp":1781248602000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.pagepressjournals.org\/ijfs\/article\/view\/15116"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]]},"references-count":33,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4081\/ijfs.2026.15116","relation":{},"ISSN":["2239-7132"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2239-7132","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]]}}}