{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,16]],"date-time":"2026-09-16T14:59:54Z","timestamp":1789570794424,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"AOSIS","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,22]],"date-time":"2026-05-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779408000000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: The WHO African Region Strategic Plan for Immunisation 2021\u20132030 aims to eliminate measles in at least 80% of countries by 2030. What could the situation in C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire be like?\nAim: To predict the incidence of measles by 2030.\nSetting: C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, a country in West Africa.\nMethods: National routine measles surveillance data were analysed using seasonal time series models. Stationarity was assessed using standard unit root tests, and seasonality was addressed through appropriate differentiation. Structural breaks were examined using break and stability tests, which identified a major break around 2020. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model incorporating an intervention variable was adjusted to account for this change. Model performance was evaluated using cross-validation and compared to a naive seasonal benchmark. Projections were generated through 2030. The annual incidence per 1 000 000 population was estimated.\nResults: A significant structural break around 2020 was identified. Projections show a slight downward trend in incidence for the overall population. However, among children, an increase in incidence from 146 to 164 by 2030 was observed. During cross-validation, the ARIMA model with intervention did not outperform the naive seasonal benchmark for short-term forecasts.\nConclusion: By 2030, C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire will not have eliminated measles, with a high incidence among children. Sustained high vaccination coverage, strengthened surveillance, and scenario-based planning remain critical to achieving measles elimination.\nContribution: The study guides decision-makers on the prospects and the necessity of adopting innovative strategies aimed at eliminating measles.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4102\/jphia.v17i1.1703","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,22]],"date-time":"2026-05-22T07:59:50Z","timestamp":1779436790000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4102\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Prediction of measles elimination in C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire by 2030"],"prefix":"10.4102","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-2923-8891","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kouadio D.","family":"Ekra","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03haqmz43","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Universit\u00e9 F\u00e9lix Houphou\u00ebt-Boigny"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-3950-276X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Calixte H.H.","family":"Guehi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Public Hygiene, Abidjan, C\u00f4te d'Ivoire"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2653-3713","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eric M.","family":"Ahoussou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03haqmz43","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Universit\u00e9 F\u00e9lix Houphou\u00ebt-Boigny"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-6432-6088","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Guillaume","family":"Okoubo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03haqmz43","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Universit\u00e9 F\u00e9lix Houphou\u00ebt-Boigny"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2580","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref0","unstructured":"World Health Assembly (27th: 1974). The expanded programme on immunization: The 1974 resolution by the World Health Assembly. Assignment Child. 1985;69\u201372:87\u201388."},{"key":"ref1","unstructured":"World Health Organization\/CDC. Measles eradication: Recommendations from a meeting cosponsored by the World Health Organization, the Pan American Health Organization, and CDC [homepage on the Internet]. [cited 2026 Dec 04]. Available from: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/mmwr\/preview\/mmwrhtml\/00047959.htm"},{"key":"ref2","unstructured":"World Health Organization\/SIXTY-THIRD WORLD HEALTH ASSEMBLY. Global eradication of measles [homepage on the Internet]. 2010 [cited 2025 Jan 20]. Available from: https:\/\/apps.who.int\/gb\/ebwha\/pdf_files\/wha63\/a63_18-fr.pdf"},{"key":"ref3","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Measles vaccines: WHO position paper \u2013 April 2017 [homepage on the Internet]. [cited 2024 Dec 13]. 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BMJ Open. 2017;7(3):e014106. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmjopen-2016-014106","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2016-014106"}],"container-title":["Journal of Public Health in Africa"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/publichealthinafrica.org\/index.php\/jphia\/article\/view\/1703\/3003","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,22]],"date-time":"2026-05-22T08:00:08Z","timestamp":1779436808000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/publichealthinafrica.org\/index.php\/jphia\/article\/view\/1703"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,22]]},"references-count":20,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4102\/jphia.v17i1.1703","relation":{},"ISSN":["2038-9922","2038-9930"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2038-9922","type":"print"},{"value":"2038-9930","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,22]]},"article-number":"a1703"}}