{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,12]],"date-time":"2026-09-12T14:28:34Z","timestamp":1789223314302,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Scientific Scholar","issue":"4","content-domain":{"domain":["lww.com","ovid.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,4]]},"abstract":"\n Background & objectives:<\/jats:title>\n To support recent political commitments to end tuberculosis (TB) in the World Health Organization South-East Asian Region (SEAR), there is a need to understand by what measures, and with what investment, these goals could be reached. These questions were addressed by using mathematical models of TB transmission by doing the analysis on a country-by-country basis in SEAR.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Methods:<\/jats:title>\n A dynamical model of TB transmission was developed, in consultation with each of the 11 countries in the SEAR. Three intervention scenarios were examined: (i<\/jats:italic>) strengthening basic TB services (including private sector engagement), (ii)<\/jats:italic> accelerating TB case-finding and notification, and (iii)<\/jats:italic> deployment of a prognostic biomarker test by 2025, to guide mass preventive therapy of latent TB infection. Each scenario was built on the preceding ones, in successive combination.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Results:<\/jats:title>\n Comprehensive improvements in basic TB services by 2020, in combination with accelerated case-finding to increase TB detection by at least two-fold by 2020, could lead to a reduction in TB incidence rates in SEAR by 67.3 per cent [95% credible intervals (CrI) 65.3-69.8] and TB deaths by 80.9 per cent (95% CrI 77.9-84.7) in 2035, relative to 2015. These interventions alone would require an additional investment of at least US$ 25 billion. However, their combined effect is insufficient to reach the end TB targets of 80 per cent by 2030 and 90 per cent by 2035. Model projections show how additionally, deployment of a biomarker test by 2025 could end TB in the region by 2035. Targeting specific risk groups, such as slum dwellers, could mitigate the coverage needed in the general population, to end TB in the Region.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Interpretation & conclusions:<\/jats:title>\n While the scale-up of currently available strategies may play an important role in averting TB cases and deaths in the Region, there will ultimately be a need for novel, mass preventive measures, to meet the end TB goals. Achieving these impacts will require a substantial escalation in funding for TB control in the Region.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.4103\/ijmr.ijmr_1901_18","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,16]],"date-time":"2019-07-16T13:37:50Z","timestamp":1563284270000},"page":"517-527","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/lww.0000000000001000","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":23,"title":["Strategies for ending tuberculosis in the South-East Asian Region"],"prefix":"10.25259","volume":"149","author":[{"given":"Nimalan","family":"Arinaminpathy","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sandip","family":"Mandal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vineet","family":"Bhatia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ross","family":"McLeod","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mukta","family":"Sharma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Soumya","family":"Swaminathan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Khurshid Alam","family":"Hyder","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Partha Pratim","family":"Mandal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Swarup Kumar","family":"Sarkar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Poonam Khetrapal","family":"Singh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"10894","reference":[{"key":"R2-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jegh.2017.02.001","article-title":"New tuberculosis estimates must motivate countries to act","volume":"7","author":"Pai","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Epidemiol Glob Health"},{"key":"R4-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"683","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.08.058453","article-title":"Trends in tuberculosis incidence and their determinants in 134 countries","volume":"87","author":"Dye","year":"2009","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"key":"R5-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1814","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(10)60483-7","article-title":"Tuberculosis control and elimination 2010-50: Cure, care, and social development","volume":"375","author":"L\u00f6nnroth","year":"2010","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"R6-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e47533","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0047533","article-title":"Tuberculosis and poverty: Why are the poor at greater risk in India?","volume":"7","author":"Oxlade","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"R8-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"564","DOI":"10.1186\/s13104-015-1560-7","article-title":"How do private general practitioners manage tuberculosis cases. A survey in eight cities in Indonesia?","volume":"8","author":"Mahendradhata","year":"2015","journal-title":"BMC Res Notes"},{"key":"R9-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1186\/1472-6963-10-113","article-title":"Missed opportunity for standardized diagnosis and treatment among adult tuberculosis patients in hospitals involved in public-private mix for directly observed treatment short-course strategy in Indonesia: A cross-sectional study","volume":"10","author":"Probandari","year":"2010","journal-title":"BMC Health Serv Res"},{"key":"R10-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e12023","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0012023","article-title":"Tuberculosis management by private practitioners in Mumbai, India: Has anything changed in two decades?","volume":"5","author":"Udwadia","year":"2010","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"R11-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1305","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(15)00077-8","article-title":"Use of standardised patients to assess quality of tuberculosis care: A pilot, cross-sectional study","volume":"15","author":"Das","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"R12-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-7-211","article-title":"Causes of stigma and discrimination associated with tuberculosis in Nepal: A qualitative study","volume":"7","author":"Baral","year":"2007","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"R13-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"158","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trw003","article-title":"TB control: Challenges and opportunities for India","volume":"110","author":"Pai","year":"2016","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"R14-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.5588\/ijtld.16.0384","article-title":"Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Bangladesh: Results from a sentinel surveillance system","volume":"21","author":"Banu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int J Tuberc Lung Dis"},{"key":"R15-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"690","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(13)70130-0","article-title":"Universal access to care for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: An analysis of surveillance data","volume":"13","author":"Falzon","year":"2013","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"R16-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-017-0809-5","article-title":"Counting the lives saved by DOTS in India: A model-based approach","volume":"15","author":"Mandal","year":"2017","journal-title":"BMC Med"},{"key":"R17-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1740","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwt210","article-title":"Modeling the impact of alternative strategies for rapid molecular diagnosis of tuberculosis in Southeast Asia","volume":"178","author":"Sun","year":"2013","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"R18-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e806","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(16)30199-1","article-title":"Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: A combined analysis of 11 mathematical models","volume":"4","author":"Houben","year":"2016","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"R19-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S1179","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jir451","article-title":"Incipient and subclinical tuberculosis: Defining early disease states in the context of host immune response","volume":"204","author":"Achkar","year":"2011","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"key":"R20-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e18964","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0018964","article-title":"Size and usage patterns of private TB drug markets in the high burden countries","volume":"6","author":"Wells","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"R21-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0124260","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0124260","article-title":"Prevalence and risk factors for adult pulmonary tuberculosis in a metropolitan city of South India","volume":"10","author":"Dhanaraj","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"R22-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2217","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(16)31853-0","article-title":"New evidence of the tuberculosis burden in Asia demands national action","volume":"388","author":"Nadda","year":"2016","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"R23-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"366","DOI":"10.5588\/ijtld.16.0182","article-title":"Estimating tuberculosis incidence from primary survey data: A mathematical modeling approach","volume":"21","author":"Pandey","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int J Tuberc Lung Dis"},{"key":"R24-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1244","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2000.10474324","article-title":"Inference for deterministic simulation models: The Bayesian melding approach","volume":"95","author":"Poole","year":"2000","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"R25-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001347","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001347","article-title":"Population health impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis diagnosis with xpert MTB\/RIF: A dynamic simulation and economic evaluation","volume":"9","author":"Menzies","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"R28-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1700209","article-title":"Household-contact investigation for detection of tuberculosis in Vietnam","volume":"378","author":"Fox","year":"2018","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"R29-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e001135","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2018-001135","article-title":"Tuberculosis preventive treatment: The next chapter of tuberculosis elimination in India","volume":"3","author":"Moonan","year":"2018","journal-title":"BMJ Glob Health"},{"key":"R31-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2155","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1104875","article-title":"Three months of rifapentine and isoniazid for latent tuberculosis infection","volume":"365","author":"Sterling","year":"2011","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"R33-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1621","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1803484","article-title":"Phase 2b controlled trial of M72\/AS01E vaccine to prevent tuberculosis","volume":"379","author":"Van Der Meeren","year":"2018","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"R34-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"i5407","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.i5407","article-title":"Undernutrition, nutritionally acquired immunodeficiency, and tuberculosis control","volume":"355","author":"Bhargava","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"R35-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0128187","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0128187","article-title":"Estimating the impact of reducing undernutrition on the tuberculosis epidemic in the central eastern States of India: A dynamic modeling study","volume":"10","author":"Oxlade","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"R37-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001805","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001805","article-title":"Testing and treating the missing millions with tuberculosis","volume":"12","author":"Pai","year":"2015","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"R38-12-20241212","first-page":"827","article-title":"Isoniazid prophylaxis among alaskan eskimos: A final report of the bethel isoniazid studies","volume":"119","author":"Comstock","year":"1979","journal-title":"Am Rev Respir Dis"},{"key":"R39-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.bmb.a069409","article-title":"The decline of tuberculosis mortality in Western Europe","volume":"10","author":"Mcdonald","year":"1954","journal-title":"Br Med Bull"},{"key":"R40-12-20241212","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"432","DOI":"10.5588\/ijtld.12.0743","article-title":"The benefits to communities and individuals of screening for active tuberculosis disease: A systematic review","volume":"17","author":"Kranzer","year":"2013","journal-title":"Int J Tuberc Lung Dis"}],"container-title":["Indian Journal of Medical Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.lww.com\/02223309-201949040-00012","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,2]],"date-time":"2025-07-02T23:01:38Z","timestamp":1751497298000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/ijmr.org.in\/strategies-for-ending-tuberculosis-in-the-south-east-asian-region-a-modelling-approach\/"}},"subtitle":["A modelling approach"],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,4]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4103\/ijmr.ijmr_1901_18","relation":{},"ISSN":["0971-5916"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0971-5916","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,4]]}}}