{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T20:06:03Z","timestamp":1786737963095,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)","issue":"12","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J Family Med Prim Care"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020]]},"DOI":"10.4103\/jfmpc.jfmpc_1542_20","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,2,19]],"date-time":"2021-02-19T08:39:06Z","timestamp":1613723946000},"page":"6061","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Temporal analysis of visceral leishmaniasis between 2000 and 2019 in Ardabil Province, Iran: A time-series study using ARIMA model"],"prefix":"10.4103","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Saied","family":"Bokaie","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vahid","family":"Rahmanian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aliakbar","family":"Haghdoost","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mohsen","family":"Barooni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"276","reference":[{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-1","first-page":"1033","article-title":"Environmental variables associated with distribution of canine visceral leishmaniasis in dogs in Ardabil Province, Northwestern Iran: A systematic review","author":"Moradi-Asl","year":"2020","journal-title":"Iran J Public Health"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.5937\/afmnai1904279R","article-title":"Systematic review and meta-analysis of human visceral leishmaniasis in Iran","author":"Rahmanian","year":"2019","journal-title":"Acta Fac Med Naissensis"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"575","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/traa024","article-title":"Analysis of spatial clustering, time trend, social vulnerability and risk of human visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic area in Brazil: An ecological study","author":"Andrade","year":"2020","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-4","first-page":"38","article-title":"Molecular and Seroepidemiological survey of visceral leishmaniasis in owned dogs (Canis familiaris) in new foci of rural areas of Alborz Province, Central Part of Iran: A cross-sectional study in 2017","author":"Heidari","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Arthropod Borne Dis"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-5","first-page":"97","article-title":"Epidemiology of visceral leishmaniasis with emphasis on the dynamic activity of sand flies in an important endemic focus of disease in northwestern Iran","author":"Mozaffari","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Arthropod Borne Dis"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-6","unstructured":"Shirzadi M, Mohebali M, Gharaghutloo F. National Guideline for Visceral Leishmaniasis in Humans Control. 2nd ed.. Tehran: Setoodeh; 2015. p. 4-6."},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138778","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138778","article-title":"COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: A time-series analysis","author":"Qi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e63116","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0063116","article-title":"Comparative study of four time series methods in forecasting typhoid fever incidence in China","author":"Zhang","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"662","DOI":"10.1016\/S2352-4642(20)30175-9","article-title":"Emergence of Kawasaki disease related to SARS-CoV-2 infection in an epicentre of the French COVID-19 epidemic: A time-series analysis","author":"Ouldali","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Child Adolesc Health"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-10","first-page":"272","article-title":"Analysis of temporal trends of human brucellosis during 2013-2018 in Yazd Province to predict future trends in incidence: A time-series study using ARIMA model","author":"Rahmanian","year":"2020","journal-title":"Asian Pac J Trop Med","ISSN":"https:\/\/id.crossref.org\/issn\/1995-7645","issn-type":"print"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Perone G. An ARIMA model to forecast the spread of COVID-2019 epidemic in Italy. arXiv preprint.2020. arXiv: 200400382.","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.04.27.20081539"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105340","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dib.2020.105340","article-title":"Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset","author":"Benvenuto","year":"2020","journal-title":"Data Brief"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e3929","DOI":"10.1097\/MD.0000000000003929","article-title":"Time series analysis of influenza incidence in Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2011","author":"Song","year":"2016","journal-title":"Medicine (Baltimore)"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"839","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268814001113","article-title":"Predicting CCHF incidence and its related factors using time-series analysis in the southeast of Iran: Comparison of SARIMA and Markov switching models","author":"Ansari","year":"2015","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"860","DOI":"10.1111\/tmi.13079","article-title":"Forecasting zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis using meteorological factors in eastern Fars province, Iran: A SARIMA analysis","author":"Tohidinik","year":"2018","journal-title":"Trop Med Int Health"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"445","DOI":"10.5144\/0256-4947.2015.445","article-title":"Dynamic relationship between climate factors and the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Biskra Province in Algeria","author":"Selmane","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ann Saudi Med","ISSN":"https:\/\/id.crossref.org\/issn\/0256-4947","issn-type":"print"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-17","first-page":"482","article-title":"Situational analysis of visceral leishmaniasis in the most important endemic area of the disease in Iran","author":"Moradi-Asl","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Arthropod Borne Dis"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-18","unstructured":"Dohoo IR, Martin W, Stryhn HE. Veterinary Epidemiologic Research. 2nd ed. Canada: AVC Incorporated; 2009."},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-19","unstructured":"Weigend AS. Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past. New York: Routledge; 2018."},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-20","unstructured":"Salman MD. Animal disease surveillance and survey systems: Methods and applications. United States of America: John Wiley & Sons; 2008."},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-21","first-page":"521","article-title":"ARIMA models to forecasting the SARS-COV-2 in the Islamic Republic of Iran","author":"Esmaeilzadeh","year":"2020","journal-title":"Asian Pac J Trop Med","ISSN":"https:\/\/id.crossref.org\/issn\/1995-7645","issn-type":"print"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.4081\/gh.2014.15","article-title":"Environmental modelling of visceral leishmaniasis by susceptibility-mapping using neural networks: A case study in north-western Iran","author":"Rajabi","year":"2014","journal-title":"Geospat Health"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bayyurt L, Bayyurt B. Forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths using ARIMA models. medRxiv 2020. doi: 10.1101\/2020.04.17.20069237.","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.04.17.20069237"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dehesh T, Mardani-Fard HA, Dehesh P. Forecasting of COVID-19 confirmed cases in different countries with ARIMA models. medRxiv 2020. doi: 10.1101\/2020.03.13.20035345.","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.13.20035345"},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-25","unstructured":"Tandon H, Ranjan P, Chakraborty T, Suhag V. Coronavirus (COVID-19): ARIMA based time-series analysis to forecast near future. arXiv preprint 2020. arXiv: 200407859."},{"key":"key-10.4103\/2249-4863.305601-26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kumar P, Kalita H, Patairiya S, Sharma YD, Nanda C, Rani M, et al. Forecasting the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in top 15 countries in April 2020: ARIMA model with machine learning approach. medRxiv 2020. doi: 10.1101\/2020.03.30.20046227.","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.30.20046227"}],"container-title":["Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,14]],"date-time":"2026-08-14T19:02:20Z","timestamp":1786734140000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ovid.com\/10.4103\/jfmpc.jfmpc_1542_20"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"12","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020]]}},"alternative-id":["305601"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4103\/jfmpc.jfmpc_1542_20","relation":{},"ISSN":["2249-4863"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2249-4863","type":"print"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020]]}}}