{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,29]],"date-time":"2024-02-29T19:04:43Z","timestamp":1709233483158},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Korean Society of Epidemiology","funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003625","name":"Ministry of Health and Welfare","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["HG18C0080"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["HG18C0080"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003625","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003725","name":"National Research Foundation of Korea","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2017R1A2B2004651"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2017R1A2B2004651"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003725","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["e-epih.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol Health"],"abstract":"<jats:p>OBJECTIVES: According to the World Health Organization, there have been frequent reports of Ebola virus disease (EVD) since the 2014 EVD pandemic in West Africa. We aim to estimate the outbreak scale when an EVD infected person arrives in Korea.METHODS: Western Africa EVD epidemic mathematical model SEIJR or SEIJQR was modified to create a Korean EVD outbreak model. The expected number of EVD patients and outbreak duration were calculated by stochastic simulation under the scenarios of Best case, Diagnosis delay, and Case missing.RESULTS: The 2,000 trials of stochastic simulation for each scenario demonstrated the following results: The possible median number of patients is 2 and the estimated maximum number is 11 when the government intervention is proceeded immediately right after the first EVD case is confirmed. With a 6-day delay in diagnosis of the first case, the median number of patients becomes 7, and the maximum, 20. If the first case is missed and the government intervention is not activated until 2 cases of secondary infection occur, the median number of patients is estimated at 15, and the maximum, at 35.CONCLUSIONS: Timely and rigorous diagnosis is important to reduce the spreading scale of infection when a new communicable disease is inflowed into Korea. Moreover, it is imperative to strengthen the local surveillance system and diagnostic protocols to avoid missing cases of secondary infection.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4178\/epih.e2019048","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,24]],"date-time":"2019-11-24T11:42:56Z","timestamp":1574595776000},"page":"e2019048","update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.4178\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Ebola virus disease outbreak in Korea: use of a mathematical model and stochastic simulation to estimate risk"],"prefix":"10.4178","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Youngsuk","family":"Ko","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Seok-Min","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Soyoung","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Moran","family":"Ki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eunok","family":"Jung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2679","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","volume-title":"Ebola virus disease 2018"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12992-016-0194-4"},{"key":"ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiw254"},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/v7020511"},{"key":"ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0911.030339"},{"key":"ref6","volume-title":"Ebola situation reports: archive","year":"2016"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005491"},{"key":"ref8","volume-title":"2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa"},{"key":"ref9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.su6503a2"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1099\/vir.0.067199-0"},{"key":"ref11","volume-title":"Health worker Ebola infections in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone","year":"2015"},{"key":"ref12","volume-title":"Ebola data and statistics","year":"2016"},{"key":"ref13","volume-title":"First diagnosed case of Ebola in the U.S","author":"Ford","year":"2014"},{"key":"ref14","volume-title":"Liberia says Dallas Ebola patient lied on exit documents USA Today","author":"Stanglin","year":"2014"},{"key":"ref15","volume-title":"New York doctor just back from Africa has Ebola","year":"2014"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268806007217"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-015-0318-3"},{"key":"ref18","volume-title":"Population estimates 2017-2067","year":"2019"},{"key":"ref19","volume-title":"Statistical yearbook of health and welfare","year":"2019"},{"key":"ref20","first-page":"365","volume-title":"On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations","author":"Diekmann","year":"1990"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1021\/j100540a008"}],"container-title":["Epidemiology and Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/e-epih.org\/upload\/pdf\/epih-41-e2019048.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,13]],"date-time":"2023-01-13T05:07:25Z","timestamp":1673586445000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/e-epih.org\/journal\/view.php?doi=10.4178\/epih.e2019048"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,24]]},"references-count":21,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4178\/epih.e2019048","relation":{},"ISSN":["2092-7193"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2092-7193","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,11,24]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2019-08-17","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-11-20","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-11-24","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}