{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T17:15:47Z","timestamp":1790702147471,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Korean Society of Epidemiology","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,19]],"date-time":"2024-11-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1731974400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100007631","name":"Chungnam National University Hospital","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100007631","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["e-epih.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Epidemiol Health"],"abstract":"<jats:p>OBJECTIVES: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a prevalent health issue that causes the irreversible loss of functioning nephrons, end-stage renal disease, cardiovascular disease, and premature mortality. Hypertension is the leading cause of CKD. However, the effect of long-term blood pressure (BP) changes on the development of CKD is still unknown. Therefore, the current study investigated the association between BP trajectory and the future development of CKD.METHODS: In this study, 246,874 individuals aged \u226540 years who underwent health examinations during the screening period (2002-2009) were evaluated. The systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectory was determined using latent-class mixture modeling. New-onset CKD was identified during the follow-up period (2010-2019). The association between SBP trajectories and new-onset CKD was assessed.RESULTS: In total, 111,900 adults (53,420 females, 51.9\u00b16.4 years old) presented with 2 SBP trajectory classes: class 1 (n=66,935) and class 2 (n=44,965). During the follow-up period, patients with SBP trajectory class 2 had an approximately 2.1-fold increased risk of developing CKD (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.99 to 2.25; p&lt;0.001). In the multivariate analysis adjusted for other significant variables, SBP trajectory class 2 was significantly associated with CKD in males (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.19; p=0.037), but not in females (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.18; p=0.321).CONCLUSIONS: An elevated longitudinal BP was associated with a higher incidence of CKD in male participants aged \u226540 years. Nevertheless, further studies are needed to validate the clinical significance of an elevated SBP trajectory on CKD development.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4178\/epih.e2024090","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,19]],"date-time":"2024-11-19T14:43:51Z","timestamp":1732027431000},"page":"e2024090","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4178\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Effect of long-term blood pressure trajectory on the future development of chronic kidney disease: an analysis of data from the Korean National Insurance Health Checkup Study"],"prefix":"10.4178","volume":"46","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6785-5300","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Wonmook","family":"Hwang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1034-0741","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Eu 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