{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T05:32:47Z","timestamp":1787031167715,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene","issue":"5","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,11,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.12-0492","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,9,9]],"date-time":"2013-09-09T22:37:47Z","timestamp":1378766267000},"page":"950-959","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":26,"title":["Population Vulnerability to Biannual Cholera Outbreaks and Associated Macro-Scale Drivers in the Bengal Delta"],"prefix":"10.4269","volume":"89","author":[{"given":"Ali Shafqat","family":"Akanda","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Antarpreet S.","family":"Jutla","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David M.","family":"Gute","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"R. Bradley","family":"Sack","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Munirul","family":"Alam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anwar","family":"Huq","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rita R.","family":"Colwell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shafiqul","family":"Islam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2795","reference":[{"key":"R1","series-title":"Science","first-page":"2025","article-title":"Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm","volume":"274","author":"Colwell","year":"1996"},{"key":"R2","series-title":"Environ Microbiol","first-page":"21","article-title":"Trophic regulation of Vibrio cholerae in coastal marine waters","volume":"8","author":"Worden","year":"2006"},{"key":"R3","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"303","article-title":"Warming oceans, phytoplankton, and river discharge: implications for cholera outbreaks","volume":"85","author":"Jutla","year":"2011"},{"key":"R4","series-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA","article-title":"Climate and infectious disease: Use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae","volume":"97","author":"Lobitz","year":"2000"},{"key":"R5","series-title":"Science","first-page":"1766","article-title":"Cholera dynamics and El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation","volume":"289","author":"Pascual","year":"2000"},{"key":"R6","series-title":"Clim Res","first-page":"131","article-title":"Predicting endemic cholera: the role of climate variability and disease dynamics","volume":"36","author":"Pascual","year":"2008"},{"key":"R7","series-title":"Nature","first-page":"696","article-title":"Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics","volume":"436","author":"Koelle","year":"2005"},{"key":"R8","series-title":"J Clim","first-page":"4647","article-title":"Links between tropical Pacific SST and cholera incidence in Bangladesh: role of the eastern and central tropical Pacific","volume":"21","author":"Cash","year":"2008"},{"key":"R9","series-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA","first-page":"17676","article-title":"Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics","volume":"105","author":"Constantin de Magny","year":"2008"},{"key":"R10","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"823","article-title":"Local environmental predictors of cholera in Bangladesh and Vietnam","volume":"78","author":"Emch","year":"2008"},{"key":"R11","series-title":"Am J Clin Nutr","first-page":"2100","article-title":"The role of water supply in improving health in poor countries","volume":"81","author":"Briscoe","year":"1978"},{"key":"R12","series-title":"Water Resour Res","first-page":"W00H07","article-title":"Hydroclimatic influences on seasonal and spatial cholera transmission cycles: implications for public health intervention in Bengal Delta","volume":"47","author":"Akanda","year":"2011"},{"key":"R13","series-title":"Geophys Res Lett","first-page":"L19401","article-title":"Dual peak cholera transmission in Bengal Delta: a hydroclimatological explanation","volume":"36","author":"Akanda","year":"2009"},{"key":"R14","series-title":"Lancet","first-page":"1216","article-title":"Cholera and estuarine salinity in Calcutta and London","volume":"1","author":"Miller","year":"1982"},{"key":"R15","series-title":"Nat Hazards","first-page":"35","article-title":"Three recent extreme floods in Bangladesh: a Hydro-meteorological analysis","volume":"28","author":"Mirza","year":"2003"},{"key":"R16","series-title":"Intl J River Basin Management","first-page":"307","article-title":"South Asia's water conundrum: hydroclimatic and geopolitical asymmetry, and brewing conflicts in the eastern Himalayas","volume":"10","author":"Akanda","year":"2012"},{"key":"R17","series-title":"Environ Geol","first-page":"31","article-title":"Environmental impact assessment on water quality deterioration caused by decreased Ganges flow","volume":"40","author":"Rahman","year":"2000"},{"key":"R18","series-title":"Scientific Documentation on MIKE-11 NAM-HD-AD and MIKE-11 GIS","author":"Danish Hydraulic Institute","year":"2008"},{"key":"R19","series-title":"J Am Water Resour Assoc","first-page":"1313","article-title":"Water resources modeling of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River basins using satellite remote sensing data","volume":"45","author":"Nishat","year":"2009"},{"key":"R20","series-title":"J Hydrol (Amst)","first-page":"381","article-title":"Hydrologic monitoring and analysis in Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, Bangladesh","volume":"332","author":"Wahid","year":"2007"},{"key":"R21","author":"Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh","year":"2011"},{"key":"R22","series-title":"Emerg Infect Dis","first-page":"831","article-title":"Seasonal cholera from multiple small outbreaks in rural Bangladesh","volume":"14","author":"Stine","year":"2008"},{"key":"R23","series-title":"Infection Ecology and Epi","first-page":"7273","article-title":"Clonal transmission, dual peak, and off-season cholera in Bangladesh","volume":"1","author":"Alam","year":"2011"},{"key":"R24","series-title":"Bull World Health Organ","first-page":"209","article-title":"The global burden of cholera","volume":"90","author":"Ali","year":"2012"},{"key":"R25","series-title":"Remote Sensing Letters","article-title":"A water marker monitored by satellites to predict endemic cholera","author":"Jutla","year":"2013"},{"key":"R26","series-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg","first-page":"597","article-title":"Environmental factors influencing epidemic cholera","volume":"89","author":"Jutla","year":"2013"},{"key":"R27","series-title":"Environmental Modelling and Software","article-title":"A framework for predicting endemic cholera using satellite derived environmental determinants","author":"Jutla","year":"2013"}],"container-title":["The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/89\/5\/article-p950.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/downloadpdf\/journals\/tpmd\/89\/5\/article-p950.xml","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/downloadpdf\/journals\/tpmd\/89\/5\/article-p950.xml","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,7]],"date-time":"2024-08-07T14:17:16Z","timestamp":1723040236000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.ajtmh.org\/view\/journals\/tpmd\/89\/5\/article-p950.xml"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2013,11,6]]},"references-count":27,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5"},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4269\/ajtmh.12-0492","relation":{},"ISSN":["0002-9637","1476-1645"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0002-9637","type":"print"},{"value":"1476-1645","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2013,11,6]]}}}