{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,26]],"date-time":"2025-10-26T14:48:36Z","timestamp":1761490116115},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene","issue":"6","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,12,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The 2014 Ebola epidemic has shown the importance of accurate and rapid triage tools for patients with suspected Ebola virus disease (EVD). Our objective was to create a predictive score for EVD. We retrospectively reviewed all suspected cases admitted to the Ebola treatment center (ETC) in Nz\u00e9r\u00e9kor\u00e9, Guinea, between December 2, 2014, and February 23, 2015. We used a multivariate logistic regression model to identify clinical and epidemiological factors associated with EVD, which were used to create a predictive score. A bootstrap sampling method was applied to our sample to determine characteristics of the score to discriminate EVD. Among the 145 patients included in the study (48% male, median age 29 years), EVD was confirmed in 76 (52%) patients. One hundred and eleven (77%) patients had at least one epidemiological risk factor. Optimal cutoff value of fever to discriminate EVD was 38.5\u00b0C. After adjustment on presence of a risk factor, temperature higher than 38.5\u00b0C (odds ratio [OR] = 18.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.6\u201342.9), and anorexia (OR = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.1\u20136.1) were independently associated with EVD. The score had an area under curve of 0.85 (95% CI = 0.78\u20130.91) for the prediction of laboratory-confirmed EVD. Classification of patients in a high-risk group according to the score had a lower sensitivity (71% versus 86%) but higher specificity (85% versus 41%) than the existing World Health Organization algorithm. This score, which requires external validation, may be used in high-prevalence settings to identify different levels of risk in EVD suspected patients and thus allow a better orientation in different wards of ETC.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.16-0026","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,10,11]],"date-time":"2016-10-11T17:09:41Z","timestamp":1476205781000},"page":"1362-1367","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Development of a Prediction Model for Ebola Virus Disease: A Retrospective Study in Nz\u00e9r\u00e9kor\u00e9 Ebola Treatment Center, Guinea"],"prefix":"10.4269","volume":"95","author":[{"given":"Paul","family":"Loubet","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM), Infection, Antimicrobiens, Mod\u00e9lisation, Evolution (IAME), Unit\u00e9 Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 1137, Paris, France."},{"name":"Assistance Publique\u2013H\u00f4pitaux de Paris (AP-HP), H\u00f4pital Bichat-Claude Bernard, Service de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Paris, France."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Romain","family":"Palich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA), Paris, France."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Richard","family":"Kojan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA), Paris, France."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Olivier","family":"Peyrouset","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA), Paris, France."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Christine","family":"Danel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programme PACCI, ANRS Research Site, Abidjan, C\u00f4te d'Ivoire."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sarala","family":"Nicholas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epicentre, M\u00e9decins Sans Fronti\u00e8res, Paris, France."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mamoudou","family":"Conde","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA), Paris, France."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Klaudia","family":"Porten","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epicentre, M\u00e9decins Sans Fronti\u00e8res, Paris, France."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Augustin","family":"Augier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA), Paris, France."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yazdan","family":"Yazdanpanah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut National de la Sant\u00e9 et de la Recherche M\u00e9dicale (INSERM), Infection, Antimicrobiens, Mod\u00e9lisation, Evolution (IAME), Unit\u00e9 Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 1137, Paris, France."},{"name":"Assistance Publique\u2013H\u00f4pitaux de Paris (AP-HP), H\u00f4pital Bichat-Claude Bernard, Service de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Paris, France."},{"name":"Universit\u00e9 Paris Diderot, Infection, Antimicrobiens, Mod\u00e9lisation, Evolution (IAME), Unit\u00e9 Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 1137, Paris, France."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"2795","reference":[{"year":"2015","author":"World Health Organization","series-title":"Ebola Situation Reports","key":"ref1"},{"issue":"(Suppl 3)","key":"ref2","series-title":"J Infect Dis","first-page":"S761","article-title":"Filovirus outbreak detection and surveillance: lessons from Bundibugyo","volume":"204","author":"MacNeil","year":"2011"},{"issue":"(Suppl 3)","key":"ref3","series-title":"J Infect 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