{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]],"date-time":"2026-10-16T22:27:29Z","timestamp":1792189649535,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene","issue":"1","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for <jats:italic>Culex pipiens<\/jats:italic> complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors\u2019 habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for <jats:italic>Cx. pipiens<\/jats:italic> complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.16-0444","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,4,19]],"date-time":"2017-04-19T07:00:07Z","timestamp":1492585207000},"page":"109-114","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":37,"title":["Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania"],"prefix":"10.4269","volume":"97","author":[{"given":"Clement N.","family":"Mweya","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Tukuyu Research Centre, National Institute for Medical Research, Tukuyu, Tanzania;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Leonard E. G.","family":"Mboera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Headquarters, National Institute for Medical Research, Dar es salaam, Tanzania;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sharadhuli I.","family":"Kimera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Veterinary Medicine and Public Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"2795","reference":[{"key":"ref1","series-title":"Rev Dev Econ","first-page":"378","article-title":"Climate change, agriculture and food security in Tanzania","volume":"16","author":"Arndt","year":"2012"},{"key":"ref2","series-title":"African J Environ Sci Technol","first-page":"206","article-title":"Impacts of climate change, variability and adaptation strategies on agriculture in semi arid areas of Tanzania: the case of Manyoni District in Singida Region, Tanzania","volume":"3","author":"Mary","year":"2009"},{"key":"ref3","series-title":"J Exp Biol","first-page":"946","article-title":"Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world","volume":"213","author":"Tabachnick","year":"2010"},{"key":"ref4","series-title":"Science","first-page":"2158","article-title":"Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota","volume":"296","author":"Harvell","year":"2002"},{"key":"ref5","series-title":"Epidemiol Infect","first-page":"214","article-title":"Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion","volume":"138","author":"Gale","year":"2010"},{"key":"ref6","series-title":"Emerg Infect Dis","first-page":"549","article-title":"Potential arbovirus emergence and implications for the United Kingdom","volume":"12","author":"Gould","year":"2006"},{"key":"ref7","series-title":"Tanzan J Health Res","first-page":"407","article-title":"Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review","volume":"13","author":"Mboera","year":"2011"},{"key":"ref8","series-title":"Annu Rev Public Health","first-page":"271","article-title":"The effects of changing weather on public health","volume":"21","author":"Patz","year":"2000"},{"key":"ref9","series-title":"Lancet","first-page":"859","article-title":"Climate change and human health: present and future risks","volume":"367","author":"McMichael","year":"2006"},{"key":"ref10","series-title":"Rev Sci Tech","first-page":"413","article-title":"The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever","volume":"27","author":"Martin","year":"2008"},{"key":"ref11","series-title":"Glob Health Action","first-page":"1","article-title":"Climate impacts on environmental risks evaluated from space: a conceptual approach to the case of Rift Valley fever in Senegal","volume":"2","author":"Tourre","year":"2009"},{"key":"ref12","series-title":"J Pathol Bacteriol","first-page":"545","article-title":"Enzootic hepatitis or Rift Valley fever. 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